14-in-14 2023: Vanderbilt Commodores
The Commodores won five games in 2022 and there is a sliver of hope in Nashville. But there is still a long way to go.
By: Hammer
The mighty Vanderbilt Commodores are next up. Anchor Down and get ready to read up on the state of the ‘Dores’ football program. Clark Lea is heading into his third year in Nashville, and there are some early signs of optimism.
State of the Program: 4/12 Biscuits. There’s not many worse than us...we’ve got a long way to go; Your third cousin sent some mix in the mail and you bake them, eat half of one, and throw it out.
Despite the early signs of optimism, we have to be realistic. Vandy had a better year than most anticipated in 2022, but they still went 5-7 and that was on the heels of a 2-10 campaign in 2021. The Commodores have been an SEC doormat for basically the entire existence of their program with the exception of a few years here and there. They stink pretty much every year, and just because they improved their record by 3 games in 2022, doesn’t mean they are suddenly relevant in college football or the SEC.
What went right in 2022?
Vanderbilt football in 2022 was a wild ride. Many ups and downs, including disastrous blowouts and a couple of big victories over Kentucky and Florida. Between poor play and injuries, AJ Swann and Mike Wright split time at QB. If you are looking for bright spots, AJ Swann did show potential. As a true freshman, Swann threw for 1,274 yards, 10 TDs and just two interceptions on 115/198 attempts. Not bad at all for a true freshman. Hopefully, he can show improvement after a full offseason as the starter with Mike Wright hitting the portal (he is now at Mississippi State).
Secondly, you can’t mention 2022 Vandy football without Ray Davis. The dude was a total workhorse at running back, often carrying the entire offense. Rushing for 1,042 yards and 5 touchdowns with that offensive line and limited passing attack is extremely impressive.
Lastly, it is important to highlight those Commodore wins over Florida and Kentucky. Vandy had not won an SEC since 2019 so getting two in 2022 was big for the program. But they still have a long, long way to go.
What went wrong in 2022?
As a 5-7 record would indicate, a lot went wrong. It’s actually surprising that Vandy finished 5-7 when you look into the stats. They were 12th in the SEC in points per game, averaging 24.6 and 13th in yards per game at 347. So there was plenty wrong with the offense, mostly the passing game, which only managed 187 yards per game. Despite the offense being close to last in most statistical categories, the defense was far worse.
Vanderbilt allowed 36 points per game last season, which was last in the SEC by a country mile. The second worst was Arkansas at 30.6 points per game. Lea is a defensive guy by trade, so this has to eat at him. The Commodores might have gone bowling with a better defense, but that was not to be.
Part of the reason Vandy’s stats are so poor, despite being 5-7 is because of the blowout losses. They really have to clean this up moving forward to garner respect. Let’s look back at some of their worst losses: 45-25 to Wake Forest, 55-3 to Alabama, 52-28 to Ole Miss, 55-0 to Georgia, and 56-0 to Tennessee. They lost five games by more than 20 points and two by more than 50 points! Impressively bad in most of their losses.
What the Commodores need in 2023
The Commodores need to stop getting blown out. The two SEC wins were big for the program but it's hard to look at a 5-7 team and see room for improvement when they lost five games by more than 20 points. In order to stop getting blown out by SEC foes, the Commodores desperately need AJ Swann to play well in 2023. They average 187 yards passing in 2022, which does not cut it in modern college football. If they can get that up to the middle of the pack in the SEC, which would be around 230 yards per game, I will feel much better about their prospects. That has to be their main priority on offense but a close second is replacing Ray Davis. The centerpiece of Vandy’s offense transferred to Kentucky so who can they lean on in 2023? Unfortunately, that position is completely up for grabs. Anchor of Gold put out a great piece earlier this summer on the running back position, and it's not pretty. There are three true freshmen on the roster who were three-star recruits in the class of 2023. Aside from the true freshmen, junior Patrick Smith and redshirt freshmen Chase Gillespie return. Smith rushed 56 times for 151 yards last year and Gillespie totaled 118 yards on 27 carries. It’s a long shot but Vandy desperately needs one of these guys to step in and carry the load. I don’t expect any of them to replace Ray Davis’ production, but they need to be serviceable on the ground to find success and open up the passing game.
On the other side of the ball, Vandy basically needs a complete overhaul. Finishing last or nearly last in every defensive stat in the SEC will not win games. I tried to do some digging into where help might come from but it seems like most of the defense is just going to have to improve through player development. They added two players from the portal in Aeneas DiCosmo, a LB from Stanford, and Prince Kollie, a LB from Notre Dame. Perhaps those two can bring some physicality to the front seven, but without serious year-over-year improvement from returning starters or some true freshman emerging, marked improvement could be tough. That said, it can’t get much worse. Let’s focus on only allowing 30 points per game in 2023, okay?
How they can earn some extra biscuits
This is usually pretty simple: win more games, get more biscuits. However, in Vandy’s case, I will make an exception. If the Commodores only win five games this fall, there is still room for earning a few more biscuits. Just don’t get blown out so badly so often. How about only losing two games by 20+ points? If you want to earn some respect, don’t get blown out by every good team you play. Be competitive, be exciting on offense, and see how things shake out.
Next Up:
Florida
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