14-in-14 2023: Ole Miss Rebels
2022 started off hot for Lane Kiffin but ended with a whimper. Can Ole Miss rebound and keep ascending in the SEC West? We’re about to find out.
By: Hammer
The last few years in Oxford have been nothing if not entertaining. Lane Kiffin brings an exciting style of play and enjoys making headlines via social media and press conferences. He also fields a pretty darn good football team. Kiffin is 23-13 in three years at Ole Miss, which is a major improvement from the prior regime.
With all the noise, both good and bad, surrounding Ole Miss, let’s check in on where things stand for the Rebels heading into 2023.
State of the Program: 8/12 biscuits. Strong, but not yet elite
Ole Miss is close.
Since the arrival of Lane Kiffin, they have been much improved on the field compared to the Matt Luke regime, and they stay in the news cycle. Even Hasbulla is a Rebel fan. So the on-field product has improved under Kiffin and so has the Rebel brand and profile. I’m no insider but it also seems like Kiffin ultimately turned down the Auburn job after a prolonged flirtation last year. Maybe he was never offered, I don't know, but there was interest on the Plains for sure.
On our biscuit scale, 8/12 is a great spot to be. It’s right on the cusp of elite but not yet in the top tier, or a real threat to win a conference title and go to a CFP. If things break right in 2023, could Ole Miss win the SEC West? Perhaps, but they have not actually won a conference title since 1963 so I’m going to side with history here. Ole Miss is a really good team and Kiffin has them trending in the right direction, but the SEC is tough as hell. They might be a top 15 team nationally but still only win 8 or 9 games. That’s the way it goes in the SEC West.
What went right in 2022?
Quinshon Judkins, that’s what. The true freshman running back was a revelation in Oxford, stepping into the SEC and running for 1,567 yards and 16 touchdowns on 274 carries. Judkins feasted on SEC defenses last year and you have to imagine he will again this year. It wasn’t just Judkins, though. The entire Ole Miss running game was lethal. Zach Evans, who battled injury and got overtaken by Judkins as the main back, still managed to run for 936 yards on 144 carries and nine touchdowns. Not bad for the second option. Overall, Ole Miss was third in the country in total rush yards, trailing only Air Force and Army, both of whom run the triple option. What Lane Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr. did offensively last year in the run game was simply magical to watch, especially given the inconsistency of Jaxson Dart.
Speaking of Dart, he wasn’t that bad. In fact, it seems like the starting QB job is still his barring some serious changes in fall camp. Dart threw for 2,974 yards, 20 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions on 226/362 attempts (62.4%). He really just needs to improve on his interception rate and downfield passing. Go back and watch some games from 2022 and there were shot plays that Kiffin and co. dialed up where Dart simply missed an open receiver streaking downfield. If he can improve his accuracy downfield and limit turnovers, this offense will be a top-five unit in the country.
What went wrong in 2022?
Not surprisingly, the defense went wrong. When you have a top-10 offense in the country but finish the year at 8-4, it's pretty clear where the issue was. In terms of total yardage given up, Ole Miss finished 75th in the country, allowing 388 yards per game, along with 25.5 points per game. Chris Partridge was the defensive coordinator in 2022 after taking over from DJ Durkin who left for Texas A&M. He only lasted one season as Kiffin fired him in January and hired Pete Golding from Alabama. There were times when the offense stalled (hello LSU game) but overall the defense is where this team fell short in 2022. Maybe Golding will turn that unit around.
The other thing that went wrong was how this team finished the season. Ole Miss started the year 7-0 before finishing the year 1-5 in their final six games (if you include their bowl game blowout loss to Texas Tech). The competition really ratcheted up in the second half of the year for Ole Miss so of course they lost more games. But 1-5? That’s bad. Kiffin alluded to this in a recent interview but he took responsibility for all the media noise around Auburn and said he did not do a good enough job of keeping his team focused. Props to Lane for taking responsibility because he is dead on. There was so much noise around him taking the Auburn job, and in typical Lane fashion, he was posting cryptic and strange things on Twitter, not denying any rumors and just generally letting the situation drag on, all at the detriment of his football team. I think coaches and fans often want these 18-22-year-olds to be robots and simply do their job on Saturdays while blocking out the noise. The problem is, they are human and outside noise, especially to young men, tends to impact them. With Kiffin back in Oxford and seemingly very content, this should not be an issue in 2023.
What the Rebels need in 2023
Ole Miss has a lot of questions coming into the 2023 football season. They seem to be yet another team with a pretty high ceiling if things go well, but a pretty low floor if they don’t. This may be the new normal in college football with the roster turnover stemming from the transfer portal. And no one puts more emphasis on the transfer portal than the self-described portal king himself, Lane Kiffin. The jury is still out on whether this portal-heavy strategy is one that can result in consistent, high-level play year in and year out, but Lane Kiffin is at the forefront of this movement.
My guess is that portal-heavy teams will have the capability of greatness but could lack consistency year over year. Not counting the Covid year since Kiffin really didn't have the ability to put together a roster he wanted, he has gone 10-3 and 8-5 in the last two years. See? Capable of really good but hard to be consistent. Of course, a two-year sample size is minuscule but early returns are in line with what most people assume will happen to portal-heavy teams.
So the portal additions need to make an immediate impact, but who are they? Assuming Dart will start, Spencer Sanders and Walker Howard will provide great depth at QB, but likely not make much of an on-field impact unless Dart gets injured. Ole Miss brought in 28 transfers in total and is ranked as the third overall transfer class according to 247Sports. Tons of those transfers were on defense, especially the secondary and defensive line. A few guys they are really counting on contributions from are Zamari Walton (cornerback from Georgia Tech) and Isaac Okwu (EDGE from JMU). On offense, WR Zakhari Franklin is the highlight. Franklin had back-to-back seasons at UTSA with over 1,000 yards receiving and 12+ touchdowns. He can play and should be a focal point of Kiffin’s offense.
With Kiffin still at the helm, we can assume that Ole Miss will be good offensively. So what the Rebels really need in 2023 is Pete Golding to improve this defense. If the Rebels can improve from 75th in total defense to say 30 or 40, that will result in more wins.
How they can earn some extra biscuits:
If the Rebels can get to 9 regular season wins I think they will earn some more biscuits. If they can get to 10 wins, some flaky, buttery biscuits will be heading their way. The SEC West is crowded so to win 9-10 games would be a real step up for Ole Miss, especially to do it again just two years after the 2021 season. It would show real staying power and vindicate the transfer portal reload strategy for Kiffin.
Next up:
Vanderbilt
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