14-in-14 2023: Florida Gators
A disappointing 2022 in Gainesville has people questioning second-year coach Billy Napier. Can he quiet the critics in 2023?
By: Waco Kid
The Swamp has long been heralded as a place where the most tenacious of creatures rise from the depths to terrorize the living and make life hell for those who enter. I mean who can forget about the Tebow-Rex, Steve Spurrigeon, or even the nagging, split-quick water bug Percy Harvin? The terrain can be an entrancing place, filled with the thundering echoes of Tom Petty through the night, but every year a new beast tends to emerge and strike fear into opponents. Last year, we saw the birth of a new breed in quarterback Anthony Richardson. The problem is that while these monsters continue to appear on a consistent basis, The Swamp has not been able to produce a fully functional ecosystem conducive to a thriving program in recent years. For this reason, we have seen Florida teams unable to eclipse the 10-win mark for almost four years.
Billy Napier will look to turn the fortunes around in year two and honestly, his seat is getting a little swampy, so he will need to produce wins in games that the Gators are expected to lose as well as winning all of the games they go into as the favorite. He received some much-needed help with the transfer of former Wisconsin signal caller Graham Mertz this offseason. Despite the narrative, Mertz was a solid quarterback for the Badgers (check out the numbers at a run-heavy school) and will immediately make an impact due to his starting experience. At the same time, he is in a whole different league now, a league that is the most competitive in the nation and shows no mercy. He also has to quickly adapt to his new climate, teammates, and offensive play style. While it is nice to have a certified starter stepping right back into the saddle there still is a learning curve that must be conquered. There’s one thing for sure, UF will rely heavily on their stable of running backs to control the pace of play and take pressure off the gunslinger.
Three of the greatest creatures The Swamp ever produced. (Photo: Sports Illustrated)
State of the Program is: 5/12 biscuits. There’s a little hope…but they’re pretty dang burnt
How can we give Florida 6/12 biscuits when they cannot even finish the previous season at .500? Not only that, but they lost the key component to an offense that was already lackluster with the exit of AR-15 to the NFL draft. On top of that huge loss, the Gators only return one starting receiver, Ricky Pearsall, who at the end of the day is a slot guy that will be a consistent factor in short yardage but is not going to blow the top off of opposing secondaries. The good thing is, they are returning a couple of running backs that have already proven themselves as certified DAWGS. Both Montrell Johnson Jr. and Trevor Etienne rushed for over 700 yards a piece last year while splitting time. I would say that is a pretty incredible feat for any back that is not the lone starter. There are definitely building blocks in place but for a coach that needs wins NOW, it may be a long season for Napier, especially with a brutal schedule.
Florida followed their underachieving season with some hope by signing a top-15 recruiting class. They ended up 13th in the nation, unfortunately, that correlates to 6th in the SEC but a top-15 class is solid for a program that has been struggling. They were also able to secure 2024 commitments from a top-five EDGE, corner, quarterback, and linebacker. Napier has been stacking up recruits left and right, he just has to hope they can eventually pan out and completely rebuild the ruins that Dan Mullen left in his wake. UF has a few games they should win hands down, McNeese State, Charlotte, and Vanderbilt and have the capacity to add to the win column against Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas, and Missouri. That would give them seven victories and the bowl berth they desperately need. Their first matchup against Utah should be a tough one but ultimately one that can be stolen. Georgia is the only team I do not see a path to success against. Let’s just hope there is no mental breakdown by players in big games.
Montrell Johnson, DAWG. Trevor Etienne, DAWG.
What went right in 2022
The high points of the 2022 season consisted of wins against Utah, Texas A&M, and South Carolina. These were games that the Gators were either expected to play close or fall in, and instead put on some spectacular performances that baffled opposing teams and fans alike. The shining star of the season was Anthony Richardson and his ability to both pass and run the ball at a very high level against the best competition, even though there were ups and downs. The running backs were able to be effective and set the pace for the game early on. But in today’s day and age, football teams are very rarely based on the ground and pound. It’s all about that air raid, high-flying football and if you give up 30 points, you better be averaging 40 per game to have a chance of keeping up.
The return of their two top-tier running backs is a good building block for the 2022 season. Expect some unheard-of rushing statistics from the Johnson-Etienne duo, as well as at least 2000+ passing yards from Graham Mertz on the season. If some receivers step up and become big-time playmakers, we could see a Florida offense similar to those during the Kyle Trask years.
What went wrong in 2022
Defense. Defense. Defense. Oh, and also offensive productivity outside of AR-15 and the running backs. But the orange and blue were absolutely atrocious on the defensive side of the ball. They gave up over 30 points in 7 of their games. 30 POINTS!!! That sounds like a Big 12 program that is out there to run a track meet and hope they can outpace the other side’s offense. Even a top 5 draft pick at quarterback couldn’t keep up with the scoring so what do you think Mertz is going to do if he is constantly playing catch up? The loss of their top receiver and tight end after 2022 was also detrimental to an already stalled offense. Obviously, their fall to perennial underperformer Vanderbilt was a huge blow to the historic powerhouse and something that cannot happen. Couple that with a horrible bowl loss to Oregon State to finish the season and it left a lot of questions for Napier to address going into the offseason.
What the Gators need in 2023
There is quite a checklist of needs. On offense, the Gators have to have playmakers step up in the receiving corps and offensive line, and a scheme that allows Graham Mertz to relieve some of the pressure by opening up the rush attack. On defense, they need every adjustment possible. Look at the end of the day, this is Florida. They have the guys, they have the talent, they have the size. What they lack is a scheme that allows these players to capitalize on their strengths while minimizing their weaknesses. There are some goliaths on the defensive line and I am not entirely sure why they are as ineffective as they have been. While their base defense is 3-3-5, I believe that with monsters like transfers Cam’Ron Jackson and Caleb Banks and prior year staples Chris McClellan and Desmond Watson, four down linemen should always be in the formation, and if you have to drop one out in the flats, so be it. But if these mammoths could get some pressure on opposing backfields it would open up the backers and secondary to fly around the ball. The Gators have always produced ballhawks; they just need to find the next generation to blanket the top receivers in the conference. If opposing teams are not sustaining drives and scoring 30+ a game, it will open up the offense to take their time and methodically score without playing from behind. I am a big believer in the fact that a defense can dictate just how effective an offense is, so if UF wants to put up big numbers they need their defense to put up stops.
How they can earn some extra biscuits
Billy Napier has to send a message very early in the season. He needs to topple #14 Utah in the mountains and prove that his squad is one to be reckoned with in 2023. If he can head back to Gainesville 1-0 to start the season, the nation will immediately be put on notice and every team going forward will have to worry about this match-up. This is an interesting team, I can easily see them only winning 5 games but would not be surprised if they won 8-9. Only time will tell and the development of their transfer quarterback is key. I am excited to see what they do on the field this year and if they can take another step in catapulting their program back to national prestige.
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