14-in-14 2023: Missouri Tigers
With a 17-19 overall record, can Eli Drinkwitz get Mizzou over the hump? Experience might just help them eclipse .500.
By: Bossman Slim
It feels like a make-or-break year for Eli Drinkwitz in Columbia. Since being hired away with much promise from Appalachian State in December 2019, Drinkwitz hasn’t eclipsed the .500 mark in his three years as Missouri’s head man. Mizzou is a far cry away from the program that won 23 games in 2013-2014 and went to back-to-back SEC title games.
Do Drink and the Tigers have a shot to finally break that .500 glass ceiling in 2023? Let’s find out.
State of the Program is: 6/12 biscuits. They don’t taste like much…but with a few tweaks to the recipe they could be special
I waffled here between five and six biscuits. Five is a sliver of hope while six indicates a few more bright spots that could lead to big things. I believe that Mizzou is right on that cusp and is showing signs of a breakthrough. With a few bounces of the ball the other way in 2022, the Tigers notch wins against eventual national champion Georgia and on the road at Auburn, a game they gave away at Jordan-Hare. With those two wins, we’re talking about Mizzou in a very different light heading into this season.
Here are two reasons Mizzou fans should be excited in 2023: experience and returning production. Of the projected returning starters, 8/11 on offense and 10/11 on defense are upperclassmen, with thirteen total returning starters on both sides of the ball. That gives Drinkwitz a wealth of in-game experience to lean on, something that should help the Tigers squeeze out those close wins that are so difficult to come by in the SEC.
With all that experience comes returning production, which the Tigers have plenty to spare. Overall Mizzou returns 78% of last season's production, which ranks #9 in the country. 77% of offensive production is returning while 80% of defensive production is returning from a defense that ranked in the top 35 in the country in 2022. Add in upperclassmen transfers like WR Theo Wease (Oklahoma), OL Cam’Ron Johnson (Houston), OL Marcellus Johnson (Eastern Michigan), and S Tre’Vez Johnson (Florida), and you’ve got even more experience stepping into starting roles.
Looking at the overall health of the program, you first have to look at investment and buy-in from the administration and donors. With the recent string of mediocre seasons, you might expect apathy from the administration, donors, and fans. At Mizzou, the opposite is true. They want to win just as badly as anyone in the SEC, and they're putting their money where their mouth is. Mizzou recently finished a new $33 million indoor football facility, and in 2019 they completed a state-of-the-art indoor training facility. Last November, the school also extended Drinkwitz’s contract, giving him a $2 million/year raise and increasing the pool for staff by $2.3 million. The buy-in is there - which only ramps up the pressure on ol’ Drink.
Missouri is also keeping with the times regarding NIL. The state legislature has passed laws to benefit Missouri athletics and the Every True Tiger Foundation helps connect student-athletes (whatever that means anymore) to potential NIL deals.
Finally, you have to look at recruiting. Keeping guys like WR Luther Burden in-state was huge (and then keeping him out of the transfer portal), but Mizzou is also making waves by locking down pledges from guys like 2024 5-star EDGE Williams Nwaneri (if they can keep him!). While some big recruits have landed in Columbia during Drink’s time, the overall quality has not been there, though the Tigers M.O. has always been development. If Drinkwitz can sign a couple of big-timers mixed with some projects and push classes into the top 25, Mizzou will really be cooking with gas.
A big 2023 season could help them do just that.
What went right in 2022
Wins against Arkansas and South Carolina were the bright spots on the schedule last year. Playing Georgia close gave the Tiger faithful hope that they could finish the season strong, but it ended up being more of a roller coaster.
The defense led by DE Isaiah McGuire (7 sacks), S Jaylon Carlies, and LB Ty’Ron Hopper kept the Tigers in most games. CBs Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (35 tackles, 12 PDs) and Kris Abrams-Draine (48 tackles, 14 PDs) emerged as two of the SEC’s best cover corners. The Tigers only gave up 337 YPG, good for 4th in the SEC.
Not much went right on offense in 2022 as the Tigers ranked in the bottom half of the SEC in nearly every statistical category. However, Brady Cook did show signs of taking the next step, throwing for 2,739 yards, a 64.8 completion percentage, and 14 TDs. Dominic Lovett emerged as a playmaker at WR and Luther Burden showed flashes of the player he could become. Unfortunately, Dominic Lovett transferred to Georiga in the offseason.
What went wrong in 2022
The list of things that went wrong in 2022 is a bit longer, starting with inexplicable losses. Mizzou got their doors blown off by Kansas State (eventual Big 12 champ, but you can’t lose to them by 28) and Tennessee, two measuring stick games that showed the Tigers weren’t as close as they might have hoped. The Auburn, Florida, and Vanderbilt losses especially sting as all three of those teams were subpar. If you can’t beat Auburn and Florida when they’re down, when can you?
The offense was the main issue, which forced Eli Drinkwitz to give up the playcalling duties and hire an OC in the offseason. While Brady Cook’s stats look all right, the TD/INT ratio of 14/7 didn’t cut it. Couple that with 11 fumbles lost, 26 sacks given up, and four Power 5 games where the rushing attack couldn’t break 100 yards and you have a recipe for 6-6. Some of the stats are inexplicable. How do you rush for just over 100 against Georgia, but fail to break 100 against Auburn, Vanderbilt, and Kentucky?
While the offense shoulders much of the blame for the Tigers’ lackluster 2022 season, the defense isn’t off the hook either. While the defense mostly performed up to standard and did their job, there were a few black eyes and weak spots that cost Mizzou dearly. The biggest issue last year was chunk plays (plays allowed over 20 yards). The defense was prone to allowing 20+ yard runs or receptions that would end up being deciding factors in the game. K-State cashed in on three chunk plays. Georgia had six chunk plays that flipped the field. Florida had four, including three over 35 yards. Tennessee had one million chunk plays and they’re still racking them up as we speak.
What the Tigers need in 2023
The Tigers need all that experience and returning firepower to mature and translate to wins. Whether it’s Brady Cook, Miami transfer Jake Garcia or talented redshirt freshman Sam Horn, the QB play has to improve as well. With new OC Kirby Moore calling the shots, Luther Burden will be looked to as a main feature of the offense alongside Theo Wease. The offense line needs to mesh with two highly regarded transfers and improve in both run and pass blocking.
On defense, they have a wealth of experience coming back. They have to limit chunk plays this year and become a more consistent unit across the board.
The Tigers also need a few breaks to go their way because their schedule is brutal. Out-of-conference games against Kansas State and Memphis are no gimmes, they have to travel to Georgia, and Mizzou draws LSU from the West. Yikes. Nearly every game from Week 3 on is a tossup, so they’ll need to have the ball bounce their way this year instead of the opponent’s way as it did in 2022.
How they can earn some extra biscuits
Despite discussing so much of the negatives from 2022, I’m high on this Missouri team because of all that returning experience. I think this could be the year they break through that .500 ceiling, even with a brutal schedule.
To earn those extra biscuits, Mizzou will need to break that .500 glass ceiling and topple a couple of rivals in the East out of Kentucky, South Carolina, and Florida and win 1-2 they’re not supposed to.
With all that experience and a new playcaller to breathe new life into the offense, it can be done.
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Mississippi State
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