B&S Week 11 game-by-game previews
LSU goes to Fayetteville, Alabama heads to Oxford, and more.
By: The Waco Kid, The Hammer, Bossman Slim
Old friends (or foes) will be on the sidelines together again Saturday, just not the same sideline. Photo via AL.com
The regular season is fading away like the final embers of a fire on a cold November night. The leaves have mostly fallen and winter will arrive soon, bringing with it the magnificent time known as bowl season. But, we’re not there yet. There’s three weekends remaining in the 2022 college football season and it’s our duty to enjoy it while we still can. The SEC has multiple good matchups this weekend so let’s dive in.
It’s going to be a mad dash to the finish to see who comes out on top in the straight up and ATS standings. For all his bluster, Bossman has been shooting blanks in recent weeks. Can the crew catch him? We’re gonna find out.
Let’s dig into the previews.
Missouri at #5 Tennessee - 12:00 ET on CBS (Tennessee - 20.5)
Bossman Slim: Mizzou has been *this close* to multiple wins this year but haven’t been able to get over the hump, except against Vanderbilt who they beat by a field goal. They’ve lost four games this season by one score or less. The issue for the Tigers this year has been on the offensive side of the ball. Against FBS competition, Mizzou has scored more than 24 points just once, in week one when they hung 52 on Louisiana Tech. That does not give me much confidence in the Tigers in this one. While the Mizzou defense is solid, ranking 4th in the SEC, they are not Georgia. Tennessee’s offense will score and I don’t think this Mizzou offense has enough in the tank to keep up. The Vols offense is averaging 523 ypg and 45 ppg. Against Alabama’s defense, who ranks just above Mizzou’s and has better athletes, the Vols torched them for 52. If Missouri has any chance, they have to mirror Georgia’s game plan and get pressure on Hendon Hooker, which they could do - they have 23 sacks on the year. They should also take another one out of Georgia’s playbook: pray for rain. I just don’t think they’ll have enough in the tank against this UT quick strike offense. Vols cover.
#5 Tennessee 44
Missouri 21
The Hammer: Missouri is playing a hell of a lot tougher than I thought they would so far this year. A couple of breaks here and there, and this team could have several more wins. Their defense is really good and they fight hard every game. Now that I have sufficiently buttered up the Tigers, they are going to lose this one pretty big. Tennessee is the most potent offense Mizzou will have seen, especially in the passing game. I think Mizzou’s defensive line will cause some issues early on, but I expect the Vols to hit on some big plays downfield. I just don’t see the Tiger secondary holding up for 4 quarters against the Vols on the road. And I trust Tennessee's defense to handle their business against a mediocre Mizzou offense. Also, it’s worth keeping in mind that Tennessee is on the brink of the CFP if they can win out and style points matter to the committee. If they can win big, don’t expect Tennessee to slow down. Vols win and cover.
#5 Tennessee 41
Missouri 17
The Waco Kid: Besides the typical beginning of the year cupcake matchups, Missouri has won or lost all their games by an average of 5.7 points. This means that they have either hung around against teams that should have handily beat them or they let teams hang around that should not have been on the same field. To simplify, they play up or down to their opponent. Which is never a recipe for success and more times than not ends in disappointment rather than excitement. Some may look at the Georgia game and think oh wow Mizzou may be able to hang around with Tennessee. Those people are idiots. The Dawgs played, by far, their worst game of the season against the Tigers and the Vols still have something to prove this season and will not let an inferior team sneak up on them. UM always seems to find a game plan defensively but even the best D in the country can only hold Tennessee back for so long and Brady Cook can not score at the pace to be competitive with Hendon Hooker. For this reason I am taking Tennessee to cover and pounding the over due to the offensive firepower of UT.
#5 Tennessee 44
Missouri 17
#7 LSU at Arkansas - 12:00 ET on ESPN (LSU -3)
Bossman Slim: This one is ripe for an upset in a letdown spot for LSU after an emotional win over Bama. My gut says this one could be a chaos game…but I’m going against my gut here. LSU just seems too hot to drop this one. In the previous three games, LSU is averaging 465 yards per game. How much yards does Arkansas give up on average? 442 ypg. 300 of that comes from yards through the air, and that plays right into LSU’s hands, who have a red hot QB. I was critical early in the year of Jayden Daniels passing ability and the ceiling for this LSU team because of it. Daniels has changed that narrative the last three weeks, playing like a man possessed. In his last three, Daniels is averaging 259 yards and 2 TDs through the air, and adding 87 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. Maybe most important of all, he’s protecting the ball - 0 INTs against UF, Ole Miss and Bama. You don’t want to catch this man right now, and the Razorbacks weak secondary is not the team to do it. With rumors that KJ Jefferson is still battling through injury, that only spells more trouble for the Hogs. To win, they’ll need to establish the running game and sustain drives. It’s possible, as LSU allows 141 ypg on the ground, but after last weeks showing and only putting up 144 and 0 TDs against LIBERTY, I’m not confident in this Arkansas team to pull off the upset. LSU covers.
#7 LSU 38
Arkansas 24
The Hammer: A lot of intrigue in this game. How will LSU play after an emotional win against Bama? Can they keep their edge as the favorite instead of the underdog? Will a cold, 11 am kickoff on the road impact the Tiger’s play? And on the Arkansas side, is KJ Jefferson healthy? Is this team ready to get up off the mat after losing to Liberty or are they going to let last week impact this week? All of that is in play here making for a really fascinating matchup. For my money, this line from Vegas is off. I like LSU to cover here. Jayden Daniels is playing lights out right now, and I don’t think Arkansas has the dudes on defense to contain him. On the other side of the ball, I expect Harold Perkins to play a similar role as to what he did last week against Alabama. The dude is a beast out there and he will be spying KJ Jefferson all game. He’ll be in his face all game too cause no one can block him right now. I think Arkansas will come out and play tough but ultimately they won’t be able to keep up with a red hot LSU team. LSU wins and covers.
#7 LSU 38
Arkansas 27
The Waco Kid: I wish LSU was a little bit worse and Arkansas was a little bit better because then this would be a hell of a matchup. Instead we have a Tiger team, coming off an upset victory over Bama, taking on a Razorback squad who also played in an upset game last week. Unfortunately, AU was the team that was upset by an independent Liberty program. One team has all of the momentum in the world while the other is coming in shell shocked from losing to good ol Hugh Freeze. LSU has two losses on the season, one to FSU the first week of the season and let’s be honest that was due to beginning of the season cobwebs. The second is to a Tennessee team that is looking more and more like the definitive number two team in the SEC. Since those losses, they have beaten Florida, Ole Miss and Alabama, two of which were top 10 teams at the time of the matchup. Bayou QB Jayden Daniels is the guy in Baton Rouge now. Him and Brian Kelly did the impossible and turned this team around just a year after an abysmal season under Coach O. KJ Jefferson will still be a problem on the other side but a run-first quarterback will have a hard time against the Louisiana State defense especially when playing from behind. I am a little surprised the spread is -3 so I am taking LSU to cover by at least two scores.
#7 LSU 38
Arkansas 23
Vanderbilt at #24 Kentucky - 12:00 ET on SEC Network (Kentucky - 18)
Bossman Slim: I tried to will Vandy to a victory last week against the Gamecocks, but it wasn’t yet time. The Commodores obviously still have a long way to go after taking it on the chin from South Carolina last week. Kentucky is last in the SEC in total offense, averaging just 23 points per game. The key to me here is turnovers. Vanderbilt is +2 in TO margin on the year, but have been TO prone the last few weeks, giving the ball back to South Carolina 4 times last week. I’ve harped on it much of the year, but Kentucky is very turnover prone, sitting at -5 in TO margin on the year. IF Vandy is able to force a few turnovers in this one, they may have a shot if they can convert those opportunities into points. Unfortunately, I don’t think they will be able to generate enough points against this stout Kentucky defense to beat the Wildcats who have superior athletes - and Chris Rodriguez on the other side of the ball. Vandy gives up over 150 ypg on the ground, which should have the Wildcats salivating. I’ll take Big Blue Nation to cover.
#24 Kentucky 38
Vanderbilt 17
The Hammer: Will Levis and the Wildcats got a much needed win last week and Vanderbilt got whooped at home by an average South Carolina team. The Commodores hopes of an SEC win in 2022 evaporated last week after that loss. Kentucky will handle theri business at home this weekend. I think Chris Rodriguez will have a big game on the ground, and Kentucky’s stout defense will bottle up Vandy’s offensive attack. Outside of running back Ray Davis, Vandy is really limited offensively. If I know anything about a MArk Stoops defense, it’s that they are good at taking away an opposing offense's biggest strength. Look for that Wildcat defense to buckle down on Saturday and get after Vanderbilt.
#24 Kentucky 31
Vanderbilt 10
The Waco Kid: Every game Vandy plays in is a bummer and I expect nothing less in this one. The Commodores have yet to find a way to win in the SEC and that will definitely not happen against a ranked Kentucky team. Sure the Wildcats have had their issues throughout the year, largely in part due to injuries and lack of production from QB Will Levis. But they still have this guy named Chris Rodriguez that can change the game in just a blink of the eye. CRod will be the X factor in this matchup (if UK even needs an X factor). I suspect he will run the ball at least 20 times and amass over 200 yards rushing while Levis will most likely throw for a buck fifty and two tuddies. Not overly impressive on the quarterback’s part but well more than enough to beat Vanderbilt. There will be no easing into it, KY will bring the pain on this snowy Lexington afternoon.
#24 Kentucky 45
Vanderbilt 17
#9 Alabama at #11 Ole Miss - 3:30 ET on CBS (Alabama -12)
Bossman Slim: Bama losing three in a row? Almost unheard of during the Nick Saban era at Alabama. It’s pretty much unthinkable…but it could happen on Saturday in Oxford. Get your popcorn ready. In shocking news, I expect both of these teams to do their damndest to establish the run, and expect both to have success. On top of that, both will use play action to try and work a few shots down the field. Alabama gives up just 104 rushing yards per game, but Ole Miss is the best rushing offense in the country outside of the service academies (happy Veterans Day!). Alabama will not be able to completely shut down this Ole Miss rushing attack, just as Ole Miss won’t be able to completely shut down the Crimson Tide rushing attack (Bama averages 202 ypg on the ground while the Rebs give up 155 ypg). X-factor here in my opinion is Jahmyr Gibbs, who I expect to have a big night against this Rebel defense and Bryce Young puts the Tide over the top. I still don’t trust Jaxson Dart in the passing game when the lights are brightest, and he’ll have to hit some shots down the field against this Bama secondary for the Rebels to have a shot at knocking off the Tide for the first time since x. He’ll hit a few, but not enough, and Gibbs and Young show why they’re the best players on the field. Changing my mind from the LOOM podcast taping - I’ll take Bama straight up but Ole Miss to cover by a hair.
#9 Alabama 42
#11 Ole Miss 31
The Hammer: What Alabama team are we going to see on Saturday? We haven’t seen Bama eliminated from national title contention this early in the year since 2010. So the question is how motivated will the Tide be? It’s a legit question, but I trust Saban to get his guys ready to go. At the same time, Ole Miss will be ready as well. And they’ll be hungry to win a playoff berth to fight for. Alabama’s offense was under a ton of scrutiny after the loss last week, but luckily for them Harold Perkins does not play for Ole Miss. I think Alabama needs to run the ball early and often to establish some physicality, and the Rebels defense allows an average of 155 yards rushing to opponents per game, so there are yards to be found there. Another key here will be 4th down success for Ole Miss. Lane Kiffin will be aggressive, just as he was in this game last year. That came back to bite him last year because they couldn't convert them. If they are able to get a few key 4th down conversions this Saturday this one has the potential for an upset. However, I'm not going to bet on Saban losing 3 games. Based on what we’ve seen so far in 2022, losing three wouldn't surprise me, but I am a man of principle and I can’t bet on Saban to lose three games on principle.
#9 Alabama 38
#11 Ole Miss 35
The Waco Kid: I left this prediction for last because it has me most puzzled. Is it possible for Nick Saban to drop 3 games in one regular season? The last time something of this magnitude happened was in 2010 when the Tide lost, you guessed it, 3 games. So historically, the odds of this actually occurring are slim to none but wouldn’t that be a sight to behold. But interestingly enough it is the 12th year since Saban has last lost more than two games and Saban does come from a Croatian background. In the early days of humanity Croatia was split into 12 tribes, also known as the 12 families, which were best recognized as a medieval institution of nobility and alliance. These 12 noble tribes were grouped into higher and lower nobility. The higher of which were most prominent. These higher levels of the 12 tribes flourished through the Middle Ages as they were exempted from taxes and had limited military obligations to the king. In other words they were the upper tier of the Balkans. They lived comfortably for decades until the 12th century when the upper echelon began to crumble and the lower of the 12 tribes absorbed the riches of those more fortunate and took power while the historically prominent dwindled to almost nothing. Now take it for what it is and with a grain of salt but the number twelve sure shows up a lot in Saban’s genealogical background. And that number signified the downfall of the most powerful of tribes in Croatian history. Oh and they play Ole Miss on the 12th of November. Is some of my history lesson embellished? Perhaps, but you read it and thought about the numerical importance that twelve may have. I think this is the year the almighty dynasty falls for a third time in a season. I don’t like that it will be to Lane Kiffin because that dude is Robin to Saban’s Batman. But hey if the boy wonder was able to take down the Joker by himself it may be his time to play the hero. Kiffin will not be calling any players female dogs in this game because he himself will be a scared little female dog when facing the Crimson and white talent but the Rebs have talent too and regardless of Kiffin’s antics I think they could pull this off. Saint Nick is still his daddy but every once in a while fathers get outsmarted by their idiot children.
#11 Ole Miss 32
#9 Alabama 28
South Carolina at Florida - 4:00 ET on SEC Network (Florida -8)
Bossman Slim: Look, the deal is, South Carolina’s offense is not good. They’re averaging 31 ppg, but that’s deceiving. If you take out games against Georgia State, Charlotte and South Carolina State and take the Gamecocks average against SEC competition, they’re averaging an anemic 23 points per game. That doesn’t mean they can’t win, because Florida’s defense isn’t the Florida defenses of old, giving up almost 30 points a game. Florida is averaging 31 ppg on offense, and that has tracked in the last three games as they’re averaging 32 ppg over those contests. Both of these run defenses have been porous, with Florida giving up 185 ypg and South Carolina giving up 171 ypg. While Florida’s defense is exploitable, I don’t trust Spencer Rattler and this South Carolina offense to take advantage of it enough to win. The Gators defense, while they have issues, has UF at +6 in TO margin - and we all know South Carolina likes to turn the ball over. I like what I saw from Anthony Richardson last week and I think the Gators capitalize on a couple USC turnovers. Gators win and cover in The Swamp.
Florida 38
South Carolina 24
The Hammer: Anthony Richardson played one of his best games of the year last weekend against Texas A&M. He ran the ball well and picked his spots in the run game, and was accurate throwing the ball, avoiding turnovers. If he can continue to play like that, Florida will be really tough to beat down the stretch. Meanwhile, I’m still confused about how South Carolina keeps winning. A ton of credit is due to Shane Beamer and his coaching staff because this team is not that talented, yet they find ways to win games. The Gamecocks and Spencer Rattler had their best game offensively a week ago against Vandy, and Florida’s defense will give up yards. With this one being in the Swamp, I like the Gators. They are more talented than South Carolina and I still do not trust this Gamecock offense to score enough points to win in the Swamp.
Florida 34
South Carolina 20
The Waco Kid: This game pits two middle of the pack East teams against each other to see which program may rise to the mid top tier and which will stay right in the middle to finish out the 2022 season. At first I thought South Carolina may pull this off against the Gators, then I woke up from that nightmare. The ‘Cocks barely beat Vandy and may have allowed them to play their closest SEC game outside of the Commodores loss to Mizzou. And to add insult to injury, that was the same Missouri team that beat the Gamecocks by 13. Maybe after the win against Texas A&M, SC looked like a competitor but their glaring inability to put away bad SEC teams is too much to overlook. The Gators are also coming off an impressive victory over the Ags, something most SEC teams can say this year, the difference is UF has been able to make games with top conference teams competitive even when they do lose. They played LSU, Tennessee, and Kentucky close games and even beat a top 10 ranked Utah squad. Anthony Richardson became the sweet side of the sweet and sour kid last weekend as RGIII so elegantly put it and we got to see a leader at QB who rushed against a stout Aggie front for two scores and had two more through the air against a young but talented secondary. This is what AR15 should have been doing all season and it finally seems like Napier has found his star and game plan going forward. For Florida this may be the only chance this week for a supporter of the blue to actually get a win. UF covers, Spencer Rattler sucks, throws at least two picks and the Gamecocks go back to Columbia with their tail between their legs.
Florida 42
South Carolina 24
#1 Georgia at Mississippi State - 7:00 ET on ESPN (Georgia -16)
Bossman Slim: Two seasons trending in different directions. Georgia looks like the top Dawg yet again after disposing of #1 Tennessee last week, make the Vols reign in the top spot shorter than Vanilla Ice’s career as an A-list celeb. Mississippi State got taken to the wire by an Auburn team who’s coach just got fired and has looked anemic in on offense in recent games. Mike Leach is throwing fits on the sidelines and in press conferences as the pressure of this season seems to be wearing on him and his team is not meeting preseason expectations. If Mississippi State can’t score against Kentucky and Alabama’s defenses, how will they score on a Georgia defense that gives up just 10 ppg and just held the top offense in the nation to just 13 points? On top of that, Mississippi State allows 150 rushing yards per game and Georgia goes for nearly 200 a game on the ground. Daijun Edwards, Kenny McIntosh and Kendall Milton must have been in the film room all week with wide eyes looking at the holes they’re going to see on Saturday. I think Georgia covers in this one easily.
#1 Georgia 48
Mississippi State 23
The Hammer: Kirby Smart and Georgia reminded everyone last week who the big Dawgs in college football are. “Y’all want to rank Tennessee number one? Cool, we’re going to beat their ass.” Kirby Smart, probably. They rolled the Vols last week and Mississippi State is just another speed bump on the way to Atlanta. This is a bad matchup for Mississippi State because Georgia can get pressure without blitzing and their secondary can cover. I have a hard time seeing the Bulldog air raid scoring points consistently in this one. On the other side of the ball, Mississippi State has a good defense that I expect to give Georgia some fits early. But as the game wears on, the Dawgs will find ways to score. They have too much talent across every position to hold down for 4 quarters. Dawgs win and cover.
#1 Georgia 31
Mississippi State 10
The Waco Kid: After the first few weeks of the season, this showdown looked promising and seemed like it could be a contender for game of the year. Now it is turning out to just be another Georgia beat down. Mississippi State has digressed throughout the season both offensively and most recently on defense. For a couple of weeks there Will Rogers started to look like an actual human being rather than posting out of this world statistics. On top of that the defense seemed to have issues stopping opposing teams. While the later still holds true, Auburn put up 33 just last week on the MSU defense, it seems as though Rogers and that Bulldog offense found their rhythm again as they scored 38 against the Tigers to end their last game with an OT victory. It was great progress for Mike Leach’s air raid but don’t expect them to put up the same kind of numbers this week against the bigger and badder Dawgs. Kirby Smart’s defense will most likely stop any offensive scheme that is thrown their way. And on the other side of the ball, Studson Bennett has been having his way with defenses all throughout the SEC. He is taking them out to a nice dinner, whispering sweet nothings in their ears, making tender love to the secondary and linebackers, then never calling them again, leaving all levels of the defense in a puddle of tears. He will be doing the same all Saturday night long to the maroon and white of Starkville. UGA has an arsenal of weapons on offense but will most likely only need Bennett, Bowers, and their two running backs (Edwards and McIntosh) to run away with this one. Georgia should cover and their QB should have at least three passing TDs and one more score on the ground. There will be no surprise ending in this game.
#1 Georgia 38
Mississippi State 21
Texas A&M at Auburn - 7:30 ET on SEC Network (Auburn -1.5)
Bossman Slim: If the Aggies lose this game, College Station may riot. Auburn had a good showing last week against Mississippi State running on adrenaline and emotion, but this would be an absolute back breaker for Jimbo Fisher’s tenure at A&M, and there would probably be no recovering from it. You just can’t lose to an interim coach against a team that is staring 4-8 and in the face. With that as the backdrop, this Auburn team presents some challenges for the Aggies and has a real chance to win. Last week, Cadillac Williams chose to pound the rock as Auburn had 46 rushing attempts and racked up 256 yards on the ground, and he let Robby Ashford loose in the run game. A&M has been especially susceptible in the run game this year, and much of this game could depend on who is healthy for A&M on the defensive side of the ball. For A&M, you have to make shutting down this rushing attack priority number one and dare Robby Ashford to beat you through the air. On offense, the Aggies will have Conner Weigman back and should rely heavily on Devon Achane as the Auburn defense allows over 180 rushing yards per game to opposing teams. Those two factors are what I believe gives A&M the edge in this one - Weigman back and Achane against this Tigers rush defense. Aggies get the win by a hair.
Texas A&M 31
Auburn 30
The Hammer: I am baffled that this is a night game. Both teams are 3-6 and have 5 game losing streaks coming into this one. Texas A&M’s roster looks like the walking dead right now with all the injuries, suspensions and sick players they have. You never know who will run out onto the field for the Maroon and White. Auburn is in a similar situation with injuries and transfers. All that said, Jordan Hare is sold out and it’s a night game. It really does mean more in the SEC, I guess. Connor Weigman is slated to be back in action for A&M, so it will be fascinating to see how he performs in his first SEC road start. This game really comes down to running the ball. Auburn cannot throw with any success so their entire offense is really based on Tank Bigsby, Jarquez Hunter and Robby Ashford running the ball. The Aggies rush defense has been pitiful all year long, but if DJ Durkin can’t see that loading the box and stopping the run is paramount here, he should just be fired on the spot. Load the box with 7, 8, 9 guys and make Ashford beat you through the air. This game is a true coin flip and aside from a blowout no result would really surprise me. I’ll take A&M to win a close one but who the heck knows with these two teams.
Texas A&M 27
Auburn 24
The Waco Kid: Watching Texas A&M this season may be the death of me. Anyone who enjoys following the Aggies is suffering from severe BAS this year. This condition is one that follows the 12th man year in and year out. No matter if they beat Bama or LSU in a given year there will still be games that are hard to watch and make Jimbo’s team look like a bunch of clowns. That is why the faithful fans continue to deal with Battered Aggie Syndrome. Most hope this will pass after a chilly weekend in Auburn and it most certainly could but I still see an unnecessarily close game on Saturday. First and foremost they are playing in Alabama and road games are always that much more difficult in the SEC. To follow that, the Tigers seem to have found an offensive game plan that fits the players they currently have in the system. This is in large part due to the firing of Bryan Harsin and Cadillac Williams taking over as the interim head coach. It didn’t take genius to figure out you could find wins on the legs of Robby Ashford and Tank Bigsby, it just took an idiot to look past it. And with Williams’ background as a haus in the running game himself, of course he was going to revert to the ground game. It worked in his favor as AU took Mississippi State to OT last week and scored one point less than their season high of 34 points. This was due to over 260 rushing yards throughout the game. I wish I could say there was going to be a clear winner and loser in this one but I can’t. This could honestly go either way. The Ags will look to freshman QB Connor Weigman to take back over the offense and provide the same kind of spark he did in the Ole Miss game. Unfortunately we did not get to see him play last week because the flu kept multiple A&M players from competing so our sample size on Weigman is small. Still he has a defense which when they are not out there ¾ of a game can stop offenses in their tracks. The Tigers have only impressed in one SEC game so far this season so for that reason I am giving a slight edge to Jimbo and the Cstat crew.
Texas A&M 31
Auburn 20