B&S preview series: Hope on Rocky Top
Photo via Bryan Lynn-USA TODAY Sports
Tennessee has a lot to look forward to in 2022. A newly renovated Neyland Stadium, a team on the up-and-up, and a word that hasn’t been used around these parts in some time: hope. The SEC East has one king, the Georgia Bulldogs. This doesn’t look like the year that Tennessee or anyone else will knock them off that perch, but there is much turmoil in the East behind those Bulldogs. If UT plays their cards right this year, they could make a big leap in year two under Josh Heupel and find themselves second in the East and looking at becoming a perennial contender for the East crown.
Let’s dive in.
Flashback
Last offseason, I went through the painstaking but enlightening endeavor of the “14-in-14” series, which took total view of each program. The idea was to zoom out 30,000 feet to get a sense of the overall health of the program, then zoom in to see what the team needed to improve and reach their goals. In my 2021 14-in-14 on the Vols, I gave them 4/12 biscuits based on the overall program and outlook. I pointed to the shambles Jeremy Pruitt and Phil Fulmer left the program in, the need to find a QB and how Josh Heupel needed to recruit his tail off. So far, the rebuild is ahead of schedule in Knoxville.
After a 7-6 campaign that saw Tennessee play eventual ACC champion Pitt close at the start of the season, beat ranked opponents in Florida and Kentucky, and inject hope into the Orange and White faithful, It’s safe to say I’d update that rating to 7/12. There is much work to do in Knoxville, but Josh Heupel has given Vols fans belief and changed the culture. The program is on an upward trajectory. Now the trick is…keeping the nose pointed up. As alluded to in the lede graphic, Tennessee fans have seen this movie before. Will this sequel have a different ending?
Coaching Staff
One of the biggest factors in a team’s success is continuity on the coaching staff, unless you’re Alabama. Nick Saban turns coaches (often found on the Island of misfit toys) into robotic winning machines, no matter what their name is. If you aren’t Alabama, continuity is one big factor in success. Clemson is the blueprint here. Their staff turnover near the top has been minimal over the last decade in which they’ve been to three national championship games and won two.
What does that have to do with Tennessee? The Vols are off to a good start retaining staff, with coaches buying into what Heupel is selling. Heupel brought in a mixture of UCF holdovers and coaches from outside his circle to field his staff in 2021. The staff only lost one coach heading into 2022, WR coach Kodi Burns, who took on the same position with the New Orleans Saints. Year two with the same staff intact calling the shots at the top is huge for the Vols development in season two of the Heupel era.
Offense
It started off rough last year with Joe Milton under center firing howitzers into the ether every play, but the Vols hit their stride when Hendon Hooker replaced an injured Milton against Pittsburgh. Hooker took the reigns and never looked back, throwing for almost 3,000 yards, 31 TDs and limiting his INTs to only three. The Virginia Tech transfer was instrumental in the Vols win over Kentucky, posting a 15/20, 316 yards, 4/0 stat line. Hooker is back this year and has taken the reigns as the leader in the locker room. Tennessee is in good hands with the seasoned signal caller.
Behind Hooker is a steady run game that ranked 3rd in the SEC last year as a unit. The stable is led by sophomore Jabari Small who rushed for 796 yards and nine TDs last year. Behind Small is a bevy of talent that will vy for carries, including Clemson transfer Lyn-J Dixon, 6’2, 220 lb R-So tractor trailer Len’Neth Whitehead, and sophomore Jaylen Wright. Tiyon Evans, the Vols leading rusher last year, transferred to Louisville after playing sparingly late in the 2021 season due to injury.
On the offensive line, the Volunteers are primed for a big year, returning four of five starters from last year, only losing Cade Mays to the NFL. Cade’s brother Cooper Mays anchors the line at center with veterans Jerome Carvin and Javontez Spraggins flanking him at the guard positions. Darnell Wright is moving from left tackle to right tackle, which leaves the blind side position open for the taking. Three lineman are vying to have Hooker’s six. Overall, this line was solid but struggled at times - they should be a strength of the team this year. If they’re not, something has gone horribly wrong.
The big question mark is who steps up at wide receiver in Knoxville. Cedric Tillman is a stud who led the team last year in recepetions, yards and touchdowns with 64/1,081/12. He’s back this year and will again be a favorite target for Hooker. However the Vols lost their next two receiving threats in Velus Jones Jr. and Javonta Payton to the NFL. Former 5-star Bru McCoy who’s recruitment story is worth reading, transferred to Tennessee in the offseason and just received word that he is eligible. Jalin Hyatt showed flashes as a freshman and talk is that he could break out this year, while Squirrel White (best name in CFB?) has raw speed but needs to hone the rest of his game. He for sure has nuts too, can’t question that (sorry). Heupel needs someone to step up to take some attention off of Tillman.
Defense
This is where the Vols must improve. The offense is the engine of this team, but with the fast tempo and wide-open Heupel offense, that can leave the defense at a deficit. That showed last year as a mixture of lack of depth and adjusting to the offenses tempo cost the defense last year, who ranked 11th in the SEC in total defense and gave up 27.5 points per game, good for 12th in the league. If the Volunteers are going to make a jump in 2022, the defense must improve.
The good news for the defensive unit can be summed up in one word: experience. Outside of the defensive line last year, the Orange and White were sorely lacking in the salt department after an exodus of transfers. This year, Heupel and defensive coordinator Tim Banks have some pieces they can build around and talented players who can lean on experience.
The defensive front must replace some outgoing contributors like Matthew Butler, Ja’Quain Blakely and Caleb Tremblay, but key pieces like Omari Thomas and Da’Jon Terry will fill the gaps, while Tyler Barron and Byron Young could have big years at the EDGE spot. This is the biggest question for Tim Banks as the second and third levels of the defense have depth and talent and should improve based on their second year in the system and the aforementioned experience.
The defense will likely improve this year, and with it the Volunteers win total should improve as well.
Special Teams
Tennessee returns ex-USC transfer kicker Chase McGrath who was 12/16 last year as well as Paxton Brooks who averaged a solid 44 yards per punt last season. First team All-SEC kick returener Velus Jones Jr. is gone, so Heupel will have to find another electrifying kick returner to give the Vols a spark. For now, it looks like the Vols will do it by committee to see who emerges as a playmaker.
Prediction
Expectations are back in Knoxville as fans and the rest of the country see a program on the rise. The question is whether or not Heupel can sustain that momentum in year two and make the jump that everyone foresees. I believe they can.
Every year, there is a three game gauntlet stretch that can make or break a team’s season. In the SEC, sometimes you can get two different three game gauntlets. This year, Tennessee has two of those gauntlets. Let’s break down the schedule:
Tennessee 2022 schedule
Sept 1: Ball State
Sept 10: @ Pittsburgh
Sept 17: Akron
Sept 24: Florida
Oct 8: @ LSU
Oct 15: Alabama
Oct 22: UT Martin
Oct 29: Kentucky
Nov 5: @ Georgia
Nov 12: Missouri
Nov 19: @ South Carolina
Nov 26: @ Vanderbilt
The three game stretch we’re looking at: Florida, at LSU, then home against Alabama. If Tennesee can come out of that stretch at 2-1 with their only loss to the Crimson Tide, they should be 6-1 going into the Kentucky game, with a real shot to go 10-2. That would be a magical season for Tennessee and heap coal on a high speed locomotive of Orange and White momentum.
I think Tennessee gets close to that this year. I don’t think they hit 10-2, but 9-3 feels like a real possibility. Give me the Vols to overtake Kentucky for second in the SEC East - and the difference is Hendon Hooker at QB over Will Levis and the Wildcats losing Wan’Dale Robinson