B&S preview series: Is Kentucky for real?
Expectations are high in Lexington. Can Will Levis and the Wildcats push for an SEC East title?
By: The Hammer
Photo via Vicky Graff Photo
The hype and excitement coming out of Lexington, KY right now is as high as I can ever recall. Big Blue Nation has serious expectations in 2022 and the media picked the Wildcats to finish second in the SEC East. Before Mark Stoops took over, the Wildcats were a bottom rung SEC school. Not anymore. Stoops and his coaching staff have done an incredible job in Lexington, and Kentucky is now a very formidable opponent, and in some circles a dark horse for the SEC East title. Folks in Athens might have something to say about that, but the fact remains that Kentucky in 2022 is not to be underestimated.
That said, I’m not as high on Kentucky as some. They are a very good team but I do not expect them to win the SEC East or really even give it a run. A lot of the hype out there is centered around quarterback Will Levis and his potential. Some draft gurus (I think from PFF?) put out a mock draft this offseason that had Will Levis being taken number one overall. I’ve heard others say they think he’s the next Joe Burrow. Transfer QB who has a decent first season and then catapults to the top of college football in their second year. I don’t see that happening. Don’t get me wrong, Will Levis is good. Most power 5 programs would gladly take Levis and start him. He’s big, athletic and has a good arm. But I watched almost every Kentucky game last fall and despite the physical tools, Levis made too many mistakes and was inconsistent passing the ball downfield. Perhaps he will avoid those mistakes in 2022 and improve accuracy, but I’ll believe that when I see it.
Added to my doubts about Levis becoming one of the best quarterbacks in the country is his surrounding cast. Joe Burrow, back to that comparison, had one of the best receiving corps we have ever seen in college football history. Oh and Burrow had a first rounder at running back with Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Will Levis won’t have that. There is no Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, or Terrace Marshall in Lexington. Plus, Wildcat offensive coordinator Liam Coen left after last year to return to the NFL. Stoops hired Rich Scangarello to replace Coen, and Scangarello has a very similar background to Coen, but there is still unfamiliarity to work through. Furthermore, his favorite two targets BY FAR are gone. Wan’Dale Robinson and Josh Ali accounted for 1,935 of Kentucky’s 2,933 receiving yards in 2021. That is a lot of production and talent on the outside that won’t be around for Levis in 2022. I anticipate Levis will have to spread the ball around a lot more this fall because you cannot expect a new wide receiver to completely fill those shoes. Robinson was a safety net for Levis and he made things happen after the catch. I’m not convinced the Wildcats have another Wan’Dale Robinson on the roster in 2022.
Luckily for Levis, stud tailback Chris Rodriguez is back for his senior year to help carry the offensive load. Levis won’t have to do it all himself, he’ll just need to find new targets on the outside. Rodriguez is one of the most underrated backs in the country. All he does is produce. For his career, Rodriguez has rushed for 2,740 yards and averaged 6.73 yards per carry over the last 3 years. Hopefully Rodriguez can remedy his fumbling woes from 2021 but aside from that, there isn't anything not to like about the guy’s game. Unfortunately, Rodriguez did get into some legal trouble this offseason, getting arrested for a DUI back in May. Nothing concrete has been released about a suspension, but reports from Lexington are that he could miss 3-4 games. Missing him on the road at Florida in week two doesn’t instill much confidence that Kentucky will emerge with a victory.
Defensively, I don’t worry about Kentucky at all. Stoops has proven in his time there that he can field a competent and often really good defense. They play a sound, disciplined and physical brand of football and make their opponents earn it. Against teams like Georgia they will be overmatched talent wise, but otherwise this defense will be able to hold their own and give the Wildcat offense the opportunity to win games. Looking over their schedule, there is the chance to get back to 10 wins, but it’ll be tough.
Sept. 3 - Miami Ohio - W
Sept. 10 - at Florida - L
Sept. 17 - Youngstown State - W
Sept. 24 - Northern Illinois - W
Oct. 1 - at Ole Miss - L
Oct. 8 - South Carolina - W
Oct. 15 - Mississippi State - W
Oct. 29 - at Tennessee - L
Nov. 5 - at Missouri - W
Nov. 12 - Vanderbilt - W
Nov. 19 - Georgia - L
Nov. 26 - Louisville - W
Prediction: 8-4
Yup, I’ve got the Wildcats going 8-4 in 2022. A friendly reminder to Wildcat faithful: 8-4 is a great season for Kentucky historically.
The out of conference slate is very manageable with Louisville being the only power 5 opponent. I know Cardinal fans are excited coming into the year with Malik Cunningham at QB, but i’ll take Kentucky to handle the Cards at home. The Florida game at the Swamp in week two is a pivotal game, and I have a hard time seeing Kentucky get the win. Florida will either be riding high off a big win over Utah, or they’ll be backed into a corner after a loss and going 0-2 in Gainesville is not an option. If the Cats win that game against Florida, then it’s possible Kentucky gets hot and finishes near the top of the SEC East. Traveling to Ole Miss and Tennessee will be extremely tough games, and I’ve got those as two more losses. Mississippi State is always a wildcard, plus South Carolina and Missouri should not be overlooked. Show up flat in any of those games and the Wildcats will take a loss. All things considered, I think this team should finish around 3rd in the SEC East but if things get sideways early, say by losing to Florida and Ole Miss early on, they could fall back quickly.