B&S preview series: Can Harsin and Auburn instill hope on The Plains?
After a wild offseason, Bryan Harsin and Auburn are out to prove the nation wrong.
By: The Hammer
Image via Fansided
Auburn is one of the most interesting teams in the SEC, if not the entire country. Most pundits are down on the Tigers in 2022, but Auburn has a way of making noise when it’s least expected. They are one of the most hot and cold, inconsistent programs of the last decade. Naturally, Bryan Harsin’s first year on the Plains was tumultuous to say the least. The Tigers got off to a 6-2 start before losing their final five games to finish 6-7. Then the offseason happened.
Auburn boosters tried to dig up dirt on Bryan Harsin shortly after the season to fire him with cause and avoid a hefty buyout (they just paid Malzahn over $21 million in a buyout after the 2020 season). The attempted coup failed and Harsin kept his job, but it’s crystal clear that many power brokers at the school do not want Harsin there. His seat is red hot and it’s only his second season. Welcome to being the Auburn football coach. Coupled with the Harsin attempted firing, he lost both his coordinators. Again, this is after just one season. Mike Bobo was fired as the offensive coordinator and Derek Mason just up and left for the same job at Oklahoma State. No offense to Oklahoma State, but no coach should ever leave Auburn for the same position in Stillwater. Auburn is a much more high profile job in a much better conference. Add in a bunch of player defections to the transfer portal and you have one of the more wild offseasons in the SEC.
I imagine a lot of Auburn fans are asking themselves “where do we go from here?” Well, all you can really do is head into the season with some hope cause the Harsin train rolls on. Will that translate into more wins on the gridiron….I think that’s unlikely. I’m not out on Harsin as a coach, but the roller coaster ride it’s been ever since he was hired is not a healthy environment for a coach to thrive in. How can he effectively do his job? How can he instill his culture? He’s having to watch his back at all times and knows any slip and he’s out. All while they are breaking in two new coordinators. There is simply no continuity on The Plains right now and despite having a talented roster, wins will be hard to come by unless everything meshes perfectly.
Adding to all this dysfunction, Bo Nix transferred to Oregon so the Tigers need a new QB as well. No big deal, just the most important position on the field. I know his relationship with Auburn fans was hot and cold, but he is a better college quarterback than Zach Calzada and TJ Finley. At least he has been thus far in his career, so barring an offseason transformation from Finley or Calzada, the Tigers offense will take a step back in 2022. Robby Ashford, a transfer from Oregon, is the darkhorse in this QB race. I know very little about Ashford, other than he was a 4 star recruit in the 2020 class, but seeing how Oregon’s QB situation last year was bad, it’s telling that he could not find his way onto the field in Eugene. That does not instill much confidence in me that he will come to Auburn and be an effective SEC starting quarterback.
Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter both return, giving the Tigers one of the better backfields in the SEC. Those two can’t do it all alone though. I expect both tailbacks to have good seasons in 2022, but games are not won by running backs in this day and age. I worry about the Tigers offensive line, quarterback and wide receivers. Perhaps Eric Kiesau, Auburn’s new offensive coordinator and former wide receiver coach, will prove to be an innovative offensive mind but I’m not holding my breath for that, especially given the personnel issues I just laid out.
Photo via Adam Sparks, 247Sports
Defensively, the Tigers should be solid again in 2022. Auburn always has a pretty good defense and I don’t think that will change this year. Harsin promoted linebackers coach Jeff Schmedding to defensive coordinator so another unproven coach is taking on big responsibility. Again, perhaps Schmedding will turn out to be a revelation on defense but this is his first coordinator position so it’s a total unknown and the odds are against him. Unknowns are not what you want in your second season as a head coach when your seat is hotter than Hades.
With all the question marks and turmoil around Auburn heading into this year, it has all the makings for a tough season. In the past, Auburn has risen to the occasion and proved doubters wrong in situations like this, but from what I’ve seen Bryan Harsin is no Gus Malzahn. Gus had a way of pulling wins out of nowhere and kept his job far longer than many thought he would. I don’t think Harsin has that cockroach-esque ability. Another factor making this difficult on Harsin and the Tigers is their brutal schedule. Every SEC West team has a tough road, but add in the annual game against Georgia and a non-conference matchup against Penn State, and you have one of the top 5 most difficult schedules in the country. Below are my thoughts on the Tigers win loss record.
Sept. 3 - Mercer - W
Sept. 10 - San Jose State - W
Sept. 17 - Penn State - W
Sept. 24 - Missouri - W
Oct. 1 - LSU - L
Oct. 8 - at Georgia - L
Oct. 15 - at Ole Miss - L
Oct. 29 - Arkansas - L
Nov. 5 - at Mississippi State - L
Nov. 12 - Texas A&M - L
Nov. 19 - Western Kentucky - W
Nov. 26 - at Alabama - L
Prediction: 5-7
Yeah, looking over that schedule it’s hard to find a bunch of wins. I expect Auburn to be tough, physical and play hard for their coach. I’m just not convinced this coaching staff or roster is set up for success in the SEC West. Put them in the ACC or PAC 12 and they might win 8 or 9 games, but not in the SEC West with a crossover game against defending national champs in Georgia. Look for Auburn to finish at, or near, the bottom of the SEC West standings in 2022. If they can win a couple of those coin flip games and manage 7 wins, I would be impressed. Problem is, I don’t think 7 wins keeps the wolves away from Harsin.