B&S preview series: Ole Miss looks to keep leg up in SEC West arms race
The Rebels have to replace plenty of production from last year’s historic team and will rely on a stable of transfers to keep pace.
By: The Hammer
The most important addition to the Ole Miss program was Juice Kiffin. His WAR is 2.4. (via @zachhamman)
Lane Kiffin and the Ole Miss Rebels are another compelling team heading into the 2022 season. Coming off their best season since the Hugh Freeze era, the Rebs won 10 games for the first time in school history and made the Sugar Bowl before ultimately losing to Baylor, in large part due to a Matt Corral injury. Making a Sugar Bowl appearance in year two in Oxford is quite the feather in Lane Kiffin’s visor. As long as Kiffin remains in Oxford, the Rebels will be a formidable foe. Easily the most important aspect of the 2022 team is their transfer portal additions.
Lane Kiffin has been very vocal about NIL, recruiting and how Ole Miss is at a disadvantage in those areas. So instead of pulling in top 10 or top 5 rated recruiting classes, Kiffin seems to be focusing on the transfer portal. There is really only one other team I can think of who deployed this strategy and found some success. Keep in mind the portal is so new in the grand scheme of things, it’s not like this approach has been used very much in the past. It wasn't possible. Now with the pseudo free agency, it’s possible but is it effective and sustainable? Time will tell.
The only other team that comes to mind who truly transformed their roster via the transfer portal and had success is Michigan State and Mel Tucker. The Spartans overhauled a ton of their roster after 2020 with transfer portal additions and won 11 games last season. So this strategy has worked at least once before, and it made Tucker one rich man. Problem is, Ole Miss plays in the SEC West. I think the 2021 Spartan team is a 9 win SEC team at best. I mean, Ohio State beat them 56-7 and it was 49-0 at half time. But this isn’t a Spartan season preview, so enough about Michigan State. Will this kind of transfer overhaul work for Ole Miss? It’s one of the most fascinating storylines heading into the 2022 SEC season.
A lot of the potential success in 2022 for Ole Miss rides on either Luke Altmyer or Jaxon Dart , the much hyped transfer from USC. My gut is that Dart will win this job, and that seems to be the going theory, but Altmyer is no slouch. I just don’t know why Kiffin would bring in Dart if he felt Altmyer was the guy. It’s helpful for depth, and having two good QBs is better than one, but that’s my gut feeling about the situation. Outside of the Dart transfer, Ole Miss added 13 additional players via the portal. Some of the big names include former TCU running back Zach Evans, tight end Michael Trigg (via USC), tight end JJ Pegues (via Auburn), wide receiver Jaylon Robinson (via UCF), and offensive lineman Mason Brooks (via Western Kentucky). They also added several players on the defensive side of the ball who will likely step in and play immediately.
If Kiffin and Ole Miss have another strong season and flirt with winning the SEC West or making a New Year's Six bowl game, expect this transfer-heavy strategy to continue. Given the amount of roster turnover and coaching staff turnover, I really struggle to predict what will happen in Oxford this fall. The losses of Jeff Lebby, who took the offensive coordinator job at Oklahoma, and DJ Durkin, who left for the defensive coordinator spot at Texas A&M, cannot be understated. Durkin in particular, as the improvement from 2020 to 2021 for the Rebel’s defense was phenomenal. The offense should look the same as Kiffin is the mastermind, but Lebby is a heck of a coach as well. Charlie Weis Jr. has taken over for Lebby and Maurice Crum is the new co-defensive coordinator with Chris Partridge.
Overall, I think Ole Miss will take a step back in 2021. Not a huge step back because Kiffin is a great coach and the roster is talented but with new coordinators on both sides of the ball, and Matt Corral in the NFL, I can’t see this team winning 10 games again. I’m expecting either Dart or Altmyer to be good but I’ll be shocked if they can match what Corral did in 2021. Corral was too good. If everything breaks right, it’s possible they win double-digit games again but I think 8 is far more likely. Let’s look at the schedule:
Sept. 3 - Troy
Sept. 10 - Central Arkansas
Sept. 17 - at Georgia Tech
Sept. 24 - Tulsa
Oct. 1 - Kentucky
Oct. 8 - at Vanderbilt
Oct. 15 - Auburn
Oct. 22 - at LSU
Oct. 29 - at Texas A&M
Nov. 12 - Alabama
Nov. 19 - at Arkansas
Nov. 26 - Mississippi State
Thankfully for Ole Miss fans, they don’t have a very challenging out-of-conference slate. The only Power 5 team they play is Georgia Tech should be an easy win. The Kentucky game feels like a toss-up right now, but having it in Oxford helps. Beyond that, it seems like almost every SEC West game, with the exception of Alabama, is a toss-up. That means a few things. First, most Ole Miss games this fall will be entertaining and close. Second, this team could reel off a bunch of wins and find themselves in the CFP or New Year’s Six conversations again, or they could stumble a bit and win 7-8 games. I think the latter is more likely given the turnover, but I’m not ready to count out Kiffin.