Jimbo in year three
Deep dive in Jimbo’s run in Aggieland compared to coaching greats. By: The Hammer
Jimbo Fisher was under considerable fire after the first two games of the 2020 season. A sloppy win against SEC bottomfeeder, Vanderbilt, and a disappointing 28-point loss to Alabama left Aggie fans frustrated. This was supposed to be the year A&M took a step forward, right? Year three has been circled on rabid Aggie fans’ calendars since Jimbo came to town. Jimbo has been recruiting well and fans are expecting a great season. Isn’t three years long enough to develop a winning culture and begin turning the corner?
After four games, things look pretty bright in Aggieland. As the saying goes, winning cures everything. Despite a rocky 1-1 start to the season, the Aggies now find themselves at 3-1 and ranked #7 in the country. Meanwhile, Alabama continues to roll so that loss (although it was ugly) does not look so bad. Just ask Georgia how tough Bama is.
Photo: Marvin Gentry, USA Today Sports
As I said in the Alabama game recap, A&M is not on Alabama’s level and they have a ways to go - but that is the end goal here (hell, that is everyone’s goal in college football). After four games, it looks like the Aggies might be headed that way. In this day and age, impatience is rampant and college football is a “what have you done for me lately” business. Just ask Gene Chizik, who won a National Title in 2010 and was subsequently fired after the 2012 season. Given my belief in Jimbo and what he is building, I wanted to dig a little deeper into other coaches' path to success to see how Jimbo is stacking up.
Let’s look at Jimbo’s time in Tallahassee as well as his stint in Aggieland thus far. We’re only going to look at each coach’s first five years to keep it constant.
FSU:
Year 1 (2010): 10-4, 1st in ACC Atlantic, won Chick Fil A Bowl
Year 2 (2011): 9-4, 2nd in ACC Atlantic, won Champs Sports Bowl
Year 3 (2012): 12-2, 1st in ACC Atlantic, won Orange Bowl
Year 4 (2013): 14-0, 1st in ACC Atlantic, won National Championship
Year 5 (2014): 13-1, 1st in ACC Atlantic, lost Rose Bowl
Texas A&M:
Year 1 (2018): 9-4, 2nd in SEC West, won the Gator Bowl
Year 2 (2019): 8-5, 4th in SEC West, won Texas Bowl
Year 3 (2020): 3-1 thus far
Moving on to look at other massively successful coaches' rise to power and see how Jimbo and the Aggies are doing relative to the cream of the crop. First up, Nick Saban. No doubt in my mind the best coach in College Football history, and the standard everyone in the country is trying to match. I’ll spare the Michigan State years and focus on LSU and Alabama.
LSU:
Year 1 (2000): 8-4, 3rd in SEC West, won the Peach Bowl
Year 2 (2001): 10-3, 1st in SEC West, SEC Champs, won the Sugar Bowl
Year 3 (2002): 8-5, 2nd in SEC West, lost the Cotton Bowl
Year 4 (2003): 13-1, 1st in SEC West, SEC Champs, won National Championship
Year 5 (2004): 9-3, 2nd in SEC West, lost the Capital One Bowl
Alabama:
Year 1 (2007): 7-6, 3rd in SEC West, won the Independence Bowl
Year 2 (2008): 12-2, 1st in SEC West, lost in the Sugar Bowl
Year 3 (2009): 14-0, 1st in SEC West, won National Championship
Year 4 (2010): 10-3, 4th in SEC West, won Capital One Bowl
Year 5 (2011): 12-1, 2nd in SEC West, won National Championship
Photo: Travis Bell, Sideline Carolina
Next we’ll look at Dabo Swinney and the Clemson Tigers. The current 1A to Nick Saban in college football. He has built a juggernaut program at Clemson, and basically squares off yearly against Alabama to determine who the best team in the country is. Dabo was an assistant at Clemson and took over as an interim coach when Tommy Bowden resigned, so we are starting with his first full year as head coach. Something to note, Dabo did not win a national title until 2015, his 7th year as head ball coach.
Clemson:
Year 1 (2009): 9-5, 1st in ACC Atlantic, won Music City Bowl
Year 2 (2010): 6-7, 4th in ACC Atlantic, lost Meineke Car Care Bowl
Year 3 (2011): 10-4, 1st in ACC Atlantic, lost Orange Bowl
Year 4 (2012): 11-2, 1st in ACC Atlantic, won Chick Fil A Bowl
Year 5 (2013): 11-2, 2nd in ACC Atlantic, won Orange Bowl
Although Urban Meyer is no longer active, he is another legendary coach in the modern era. Despite shady circumstances surrounding his departures from both Florida and Ohio State, his coaching ability is unquestioned. Personally, I think the guy is a total snake but he sure can coach. His resume is impeccable. This also does not include his brief two year stint at Utah, where he won 22 games in two years, including an undefeated 12-0 season in 2004.
Florida:
Year 1 (2005): 9-3, 2nd in SEC East, won Outback Bowl
Year 2 (2006): 13-1, 1st in SEC East, won National Championship
Year 3 (2007): 9-4, 3rd in SEC East, lost Capital One Bowl
Year 4 (2008): 13-1, 1st in SEC East, won National Championship
Year 5 (2009): 13-1, 1st in SEC East, won Sugar Bowl
Ohio State:
Year 1 (2012): 12-0, 1st in Big Ten East, not eligible for postseason play
Year 2 (2013): 12-2, 1st in Big Ten East, lost Orange Bowl
Year 3 (2014): 14-1, 1st in Big Ten East, won National Championship
Year 4 (2015): 12-1, 1st in Big Ten East, won the Fiesta Bowl
Year 5 (2016): 11-2, 1st in Big Ten East, lost Fiesta Bowl
Next up - Mack Brown. He deserves to be in this conversation because he won a national championship and coached at the school down the road who we often compare ourselves to. So let's take a peek at how ole Mack Brown did when he first started at t.u. Similar to Dabo, Mack did not win a National Title until 2005, his 7th year as head coach.
Texas:
Year 1 (1998): 9-3, 2nd in Big 12 South, won Cotton Bowl
Year 2 (1999): 9-5, 1st in the Big 12 South, lost Cotton Bowl
Year 3 (2000): 9-3, 2nd in Big 12 South, lost Holiday Bowl
Year 4 (2001): 11-2, 1st in Big 12 South, won Holiday Bowl
Year 5 (2002): 11-2, 1st in Big 12 South, won Cotton Bowl
For the last comparison, I wanted to see how R.C. Slocum, who is typically regarded as the best coach is A&M history, fared in his first five years on the job. Keep in mind, when he took over A&M was in the midst of a great stretch architected by Jackie Sherrill - but there were serious sanctions against A&M after Sherrill departed.
Texas A&M:
Year 1 (1989): 8-4, 2nd in Southwest Conference, lost John Hancock Bowl
Year 2 (1990): 9-3-1, 2nd in Southwest Conference, won Holiday Bowl
Year 3 (1991): 10-2, 1st in Southwest Conference, lost Cotton Bowl
Year 4 (1992): 12-1, 1st in Southwest Conference, lost Cotton Bowl
Year 5 (1993): 10-2, 1st in Southwest Conference, lost Cotton Bowl
We’ve now taken a look at the most successful college football coaches in the last 25 years and their respective records when taking over programs. Nick Saban and Urban Meyer clearly stick out as they both won three national titles within the first five years at new programs. The tiles came at two different universities so it’s not three titles in five years, but it shows they can come to a new program and quickly whip it into shape. Something Aggie fans were hoping, maybe more like expecting, Jimbo to do in College Station. Jimbo was able to win a championship in year four at FSU but it's pretty unlikely that happens at A&M, so he may not measure up to those guys in stop number two. The road to a title at A&M is harder than it was for FSU because the schedule is much more difficult game in and game out. But no fanbase wants to hear that excuse.
Dabo and Mack, however, took a little more time to reach the pinnacle. Both first won championships in year number seven. Despite not winning championships until year seven, these coaches quickly broke through for 10+ win seasons in years 3-5. That won’t happen for Jimbo this year due to a shortened schedule, but had COVID not ruined everything, A&M had a legitimate shot at winning 10 games. So perhaps if things were normal, Jimbo would be tracking nicely with the Dabo/Mack track record? Sadly, there’s no way to know for sure. R.C. followed a similar path, where he too was able to lead to Aggies to 10 wins in year three and never looked back.
Photo: Jamie Squire, Getty Images
In defense of Jimbo, none of these other coaches had to play the schedule Jimbo has since arriving in College Station. Sure the other coaches had big time games too - When Mack took over Texas, Nebraska and OU were powers. When Saban took over he faced great SEC opponents. When Dabo took over Clemson, FSU was very strong. I could continue but you see my point - everyone has hard games. But maybe not this hard. I know blaming the schedule is weak and we expect to compete and win big games, but it has been an absolute gauntlet since Jimbo arrived. For reference, in 2018 Texas A&M played #2 Clemson, #1 Alabama on the road, #13 Kentucky, and #6 LSU. In 2019, A&M played #1 Clemson on the road, #8 Auburn, #1 Alabama, #4 Georgia on the road, and #1 LSU on the road. Then to top it all off, this season’s schedule was scrapped due to the corona virus so the Aggies will play 10 SEC games. So in two plus seasons Jimbo has played #1 four times, #2 twice, and a total of eight top five opponents. Show me another coach who wins 10+ games with that schedule. Only Saban can claim that.
Sheesh, talk about a rough road. You think Jimbo saw this at FSU in the ACC? Hell no. You think Dabo sees this in the ACC? Think again. So the point is this: continue to believe in Jimbo and give him some time. It’s hard to build a program and create a winning culture, especially when you are consistently facing off against more talented teams. Rome wasn’t built in a day. We want to compete, we want to improve and we want to win. The Florida game shows we are doing all three, and the culture is starting to take hold.
I think one thing is clear when comparing all these coaches - years three and four are when they really begin to make moves. The only coach to win a title before year three in a new program was Urban at Florida. So when fans expect a much improved team in year three, it seems reasonable, assuming your coach really is elite.
So far through four games this year, I think we have seen the improvement and culture change. The Alabama loss hurt and was over at halftime. The Vandy game was sloppy. But this team is now 3-1 with a legitimate chance to go 9-1 or 8-2. They are winning games differently. The Aggie teams under Kevin Sumlin had skill position talent and flash, but got whooped in the trenches too often. Not anymore. Jimbo’s team is winning with the run game, a solid offensive line, a nasty front seven on defense and a good defense overall (Elko is worth every damn penny). The physicality and toughness is unmistakable and it is not something that was prevalent before Jimbo’s arrival.
Jimbo can do it.
