Mississippi State #8??
Our reaction to ESPN’s 2021 Preseason FPI Rankings. By: The Hammer
If there is anything you can count on during the college football offseason, it’s meaningless “way too early” rankings put out by every media outlet. Everyone does it because there isn't a lot going on, and these will spark conversations. And typically social media fights if you peruse the popular app known as Twitter. Not to mention, here we are talking about it.
I typically don’t give these rankings much credence but this one caught my eye. The latest one I saw was released by ESPN and it showed their preseason rankings according to the FPI. If you are unfamiliar with the FPI, it stands for Football Power Index. Which sounds pretty badass but in reality is just a statistical calculation. According to America’s most trusted source, Wikipedia, the FPI is a rating system that was “developed by ESPN that measures team strength and uses it to forecast game and season results in American football. Each team’s FPI rating is composed of predictive offensive, defensive, and special teams value, as measured by a function of expected points added (EPA).”
Basically, it just tries to measure how good a team is and it is used as a function to compare teams, typically ones that do not actually play on the field.
It starts with some familiar faces with Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State all find themselves in the top 5 and rightfully so. Nothing to see there. Oklahoma coming in at #2 seems high to me, but the Sooners should be very good next year. I think they are getting more credit than they deserve for beating the tar out of Florida’s JV team, but I would not be surprised to see OU make a run at the CFP next year so being in the top 4 makes sense. Now can they actually win a game once they get there? I’ll believe it when I see it.
Oklahoma every time that make the CFP.
Iowa State at #4 also seems high to me. Top 10? Sure. I believe they return 20 out of 22 starters from a year ago so they ought to be darn good. But again, this team lost 3 games a year ago, including a home loss to the Ragin Cajuns of Louisiana. The Cyclones should be a tough matchup in 2021, a top 10 team, but I would be very surprised to see them in the CFP at the end of the year.
Obviously, I won't skip over the Aggies here. Coming at #6 seems very fair. Great season a year ago, arguably should have been in the CFP and we return a bunch of starters, especially on defense. Only thing potentially holding A&M back this season from making a real run at the CFB will be quarterback and offensive line play. If those positions can pull their weight, the SEC better watch the hell out.
Looking at the last handful of teams, I only have one issue. Georgia should be good as usual, I wouldn't be surprised to see Penn State rebound and Oklahoma State is always kinda hangin’ around until they inevitably get boat raced by OU. So yeah, the issue I'm referring to is Mississippi State who is sticking out like a sore thumb. And not a regular sore thumb, I’m talking about a ‘just smashed your thumb in a truck door’ kind of sore thumb. It's purple, the nail is falling off and it hurts like hell.
Confident Oklahoma State fans before a Bedlam beatdown.
That would be Mississippi State in this pre-season ranking. I mean, what in the world are they looking at that makes them think the Bulldogs are the 8th best team in the country? I’m a believer in Mike Leach generally, the guy has won everywhere he’s been. But it takes time, and they STUNK last year. They were 4-7!
**queue Starkville Steve saying they played UGA close and beat Mizzou and Tulsa to finish the season**
Settle down, Steve. Yes, they played UGA close. Give the Bulldogs and coach Leach a ton of credit for that performance, especially with darn near half the roster either runoff by Leach or out due to COVID. And yeah, they beat Mizzou and then Tulsa in a bowl game to close the year. Big freakin’ whoop, guy! Mizzou finished 5-5 and Tulsa, although a very solid program, should never beat an SEC team. So if you want to hang your hat on those two wins and a close loss to Georgia to try and justify being preseason top 10 for the 2021 season, be my guest. But I’m not buying it at all. The Bulldogs will probably be better, but it should be easy to improve after a 4-7 season. If they go 6-6, people in Starkville should be happy.
I will never forget about this video. After it was posted, Mississippi State went 3-7.
The only reason this particular ranking got me so fired up is that the FPI is supposed to be based on statistics. This is not your typical BS preseason ranking from RJ Young at Fox Sports or anything. Those are always clickbait garbage rankings with the sole purpose of stirring up fans because of how absurd they are. That is why this ranking puzzled me. Are they seeing something in Starkville that I’m not? Is Will “Wild Bill” Rogers the next great Leach quarterback? I guess we’ll find out soon enough but don’t save me a seat on the Mississippi State bandwagon because I ain't buying a ticket.
#BTHOOffseason
