Playoff expansion talk and what it means for the Aggies
The last rankings before the CFP in 2020
The 12-team playoff proposal is officially on the table and moving quickly. It faced its first test this past Thursday and Friday when the CFB Management Committee debated the topic and ultimately passed the proposal.. Now, it heads to the CFP Board of Managers this Tuesday, June 22. Here's a quick breakdown of what the proposal looks like:
Top 4 seeds must be conference champions and will get a first-round bye.
No automatic bids for a conference. Top 6 conference champs get an invite.
6 at-large bids given out to non-conference champions or group-of-five.
Seeds 5-8 would get a home game on their campus in the first round to play seeds 9-12
Second-round matchups would be played at bowl stadiums
I have mixed feelings about this new playoff system, but overall I am a fan. I like the idea of expansion but was initially worried 12 might be too much. I was more on board with an 8 team model, championed by Jake Crain of the Jboy Show (you can watch his proposal here). However, the 12 team model is growing on me the more I’ve thought about it. I’m confident it will at least be a much better system than the current 4 team model.
There are too many good teams being left at the CFP altar, A&M included, in the current format. Baylor and TCU both got jobbed back in 2014 just like A&M got jobbed last year. With a 12 team model, that wouldn't happen. And the argument of the 13th team, whoever that ends up being, is a hell of a lot weaker than that of the 5th place team.
Take A&M from last year for example. The Aggies lost in week 2 of the season to the best team in the nation (BY FAR) and got left out. A 28 point loss is hard to overcome and ultimately, it was too much for the committee to look past. Obviously no one was going to beat Alabama last year, they proved that, especially in the title game against Ohio State (who also should not have been in the playoff if you ask me). With only one blemish on A&M’s record, to not even have a chance at a title leaves a bitter taste in your mouth. Now let's compare the A&M “resume” to the 13th team in the final 2020 CFP rankings. It just so happened to be North Carolina who was 8-3 after the regular season. It makes way more sense for a three loss team to be on the outside looking in than a one loss team, right? I sure think so.
Another issue that needs to be addressed is the perceived cheapening or weakening of the regular season. College football has the best regular season in any sport, by a mile and bar none. Could this expansion diminish the impact of some games, thus making the games less exciting with less is on the line? Maybe. But I think in the end it will create more excitement for a couple of reasons.
First, teams that previously would have been eliminated from playoff consideration late in the year could now still have a chance. So a team with two losses won't have players opting out and could be playing in really, really meaningful games late in the year. In the current system, if you lose twice you are done, making the late season games for teams in that situation not very important on a national scale. So although some early season games may not be as impactful as they once were, the late season games that would now become important from a playoff perspective would make up for that.
Secondly, I think this might make teams more willing to play big out of conference games, knowing their margin for error is a bit higher AND conference champions automatically get in. So if you play a big time team out of conference, not only do you have some more leniency for a loss, you can also go back and win your conference championship and the out of conference game won't impact you at all from a playoff perspective.
I don’t know about y’all but I love seeing out of conference power 5 matchups early in the season. It’s awesome and a great way to get the blood pumping right out of the gate. But under the current format, what is the incentive? Why would a team with playoff aspirations schedule a really difficult out of conference game? Other than some revenue and excitement, there is no incentive. And I know there are still a few marquee matchups in a given year like Clemson and Georgia in 2021. But what if every power 5 team was trying to schedule big games like that instead of just a select few? Seems like a win-win-win (shout out Michael Scott) situation all around. Fans get better games, coaches get better competition, and if we start scheduling home and homes rather than neutral sites, the college towns get a big economic boost.
One more big reason I think this expansion will be good for the game is recruiting. Recruits nowadays pretty much all want the same things: to play for a national title and go to the NFL. Well right now, there are only a handful of teams (Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, etc.) who can legitimately tell recruits they will have a chance to play in the national title if they come to their school. It’s the ultimate trump card when recruiting someone. By expanding the playoff, more teams will get a seat at the table and truly be able to tell recruits that they have a legitimate shot at winning a title. Sure the eventual national champion and final four will probably look the same at first, but at least these kids will be able to prove it on the field.
If you go to A&M or Penn State right now, you are being pitched a vision. Recruiters are telling these kids we have the potential to make the playoff and play for a title. With expansion, it's no longer potential, it's real. Come here and you have a very, very good chance of making the playoff. And if you make the playoff you are there, at the pinnacle. Competing at the highest level, on a national stage, controlling your own destiny. Right now, your destiny can be controlled by a committee in a conference room unless you are undefeated, which is exceptionally hard in the modern era.
That sums up my thoughts on the potential new format overall, but what does it mean for A&M specifically? Well, A&M would have made the playoff twice in the last decade had this system been in place - 2012 and 2020. Although impossible to prove, I think A&M would have won the national championship in 2012 and this is a hill I’m willing to die on. I might be a tad biased but Johnny was on another level late in 2012, just ask the Sooners. Regardless of what the Aggies might have done in said playoff appearances, it’s good to know they would have been in it. It gives you hope and excitement as a fan. Especially because I think Jimbo is going to continue to improve talent and will have the Aggies competing at a top 12 level for the foreseeable future.
Maybe more important than what A&M and Jimbo do to keep improving, this new system moves the Alabama roadblock to the side. Right now, A&M could conceivably be the second best team in country and lose to Bama and not have a chance for a playoff berth. Mike Farrell of Rivals brought up this point in his article on expansion last week, stating “The Aggies are currently blocked by Alabama and perhaps LSU if the Tigers put together all their talent like they did in 2019. But with playoff expansion the Aggies would now have a shot even with a loss to the Tide. That would bring a bigger in-state advantage in recruiting and we all know Jimbo Fisher can build a roster when he is focused.”
Yes, to win a national championship there is a good chance you will still need to beat Alabama somewhere along the line. But right now, the SEC overall and the SEC West in particular, has a big ole Nick Saban roadblock. Teams like A&M, LSU, and Auburn will no longer have to beat Bama, necessarily, to earn a playoff spot. Given how Alabama is recruiting, and Nick Saban’s contract extension, that’s a huge weight off of every SEC coach’s shoulders. And like Farrell points out, maybe just getting there will help A&M gain even more recruiting momentum in order to get over the hump.
This new format is not set in stone yet, but the winds of change are blowing. It would be stupid to shoot this down and stick to the status quo at this point. The cat is out of the bag and every conference sees the revenue implications. And the Pac-12 and Big 12 are just itching for relevance again. It will be fun to have them in the playoffs as warm up games. I’m not sure who would be opposed to this expansion outside of more traditional college football fans who are upset about losing the luster of some regular season games. But I already addressed that argument with relative ease and I’m an idiot so it can’t be too complicated.
Bottom line, I hope this gets done. It’s good for A&M and I think it’s good for college football overall. And that’s the whole point, right?
Think we got it wrong? Think we got it right? Where do y’all see the Aggie program right now? Chirp us on Twitter or Instagram and let us know!
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