Best and worst case scenarios for the Aggies in 2020
Expectations are high as usual in College Station. What are some possible outcomes for the Maroon and White this year?
By: The Hammer
Photo: David J. Phillip/Associated Press
We’ll start with the best case because that is more fun. It’s still pre-season so expectations and morale remain high across Aggie nation. We have yet to be burned by a meddling Mississippi school, whooped by an Alabama school, or held in check by an out of conference foe, who happens to wear a different shade of orange. We all know how good A&M’s schedule looked like coming into 2020, so I’m not going to beat a dead horse. We know it was the easiest since joining the SEC, and we all know it’s gone thanks to a little something called a global pandemic (or something like that).
Since the SEC announced a 10-game, conference-only schedule, I’ve seen a lot of buzz saying A&M got shafted, Alabama got off easy, etc. I won’t pretend to know the SEC’s method for adding these games to everyone’s schedules, but let's just suck it up and deal with it. Any team who plays 10 SEC games is going to have a rough schedule. We already had Vandy and South Carolina and if we want to be an elite team, then it's time we start beating really good teams. That is the next step. Jimbo has proven that he can beat teams we are better than, something his predecessor struggled with. However, the Aggies have not really upset anyone or beat a superior team yet under Jimbo, despite some good efforts and close games.
Now back to what I think is the best-case scenario for the Ags: 9-1. Of course, the true best-case scenario would be 10-0 but let’s try to be a little realistic. It would be an unbelievable, fairy tale season (similar to LSU from last year) if the Aggies went 10-0. With an all-SEC schedule, it’s going to be extremely difficult for any team to run the table and I wouldn't expect anyone to do so, except maybe Bama. So, 9-1 it is. Basically, that means we beat everyone but Bama, or somehow surprise the Tide in week 2, then slip later in the season. In my mind, that is a HUGE step forward for Jimbo and the Aggies. If A&M can beat Florida, LSU, and Auburn in the same year, while not slipping to an inferior opponent, we are in business and probably have a chance at the playoff. The updated coaches poll (finally removed the conferences who shall not be named) has LSU #5, Florida #6 and Auburn #9, all ahead of A&M at #10.
In order for a 9-1 season to happen, there needs to be a lot of improvement and some things need to go the Ags way. I don’t want to write a novel here so I’ll keep this brief. The defense should be very good. Elko is back and we have talent and experience all over the field and should be good enough to get to 9-1. Offensively what needs to happen is pretty obvious. First, the offensive line needs drastic improvement. We return 4 starters from that unit, so experience is there but how good will it be, considering how bad they were last year, remains a mystery.
We need to be able to run the ball effectively against everyone. In the 5 losses last season, the Ags averaged a whopping 61 net rushing yards and 2.38 yards per attempt. Even in tough games, against nasty defenses like Alabama or LSU, it is critical to establish some sort of rushing game just so the defense doesn’t key on the air attack, which is what Kellen faced a lot last year. If the Aggies have any chance of going 9-1, Kellen needs to get more consistent. You could argue the offensive line let him down, and having an extremely weak run game behind him limited his production last year. And while both are true, you don’t need to watch a ton of Aggie football to know that Kellen also leaves a lot of missed opportunities out there.
He just hasn’t been accurate enough throughout his career. Flashes of excellence, yes. Solid statistics, no doubt. But we need consistent and sustained high-level play to go 9-1. I know it’s in there, let’s hope he can finally put it together for 2020.
Now let's talk about the worst-case scenario. As previously mentioned, Jimbo wins games against inferior opponents. So it’s pretty easy to look at the schedule and say the worst-case scenario is 6-4. Beat the teams we should beat and then lose to Alabama, Florida, LSU, and Auburn. It's too bad we don't play in the ACC or Big 12. For a quick comparison, Oklahoma currently has one top 10 team on their schedule, which is Texas, aka the most overrated team in college football for the last 10 seasons. A&M, on the other hand, has four top-10 opponents right now. Oh, to be a can’t-hack-it pantywaist Big 12 school again. Pause...not! ‘Cause we play big boy football now.
For 6-4 to happen, we basically just have to be the same team we were last year and show little improvement. Kellen would have to have a very underwhelming season, the O-line would have to continue its mediocrity, and our defense would have to stay pretty stagnant, getting little QB pressure and be susceptible to big plays again. Given Jimbo and Elko’s track record, I don't see this being the case BUT I have had my hopes and dreams ripped apart by many an Aggie team throughout the years. Anything worse than 6-4 would be an absolute travesty and put Jimbo in jeopardy of losing his job. 6-4 would start some hot seat rumors but anything worse would be darn near catastrophic.
Realistically, the Ags will probably end up somewhere between these two outcomes, and by God, I hope it's close to the best case. Aggie fans deserve a big year from their team.
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