Battle on The Plains
Texas A&M vs Auburn Preview. By: The Hammer
Aggie fans have had this game circled on the calendar for a long time. Before COVID-19 changed everything, it was thought of as A&M’s only chance to lose before the final two games of the year against Alabama and LSU. Then the schedule was changed and Auburn ended up being the final game of the year (or so we thought), causing fans to wonder just how big that game could be. What would these teams be playing for come December 5th? Point is, we have been looking forward to playing the Tigers for a long time. Auburn came to Kyle Field and beat A&M 28-20 last season with relative ease. A&M scored some late 4th quarter touchdowns to make the score closer than the game really was. Thankfully a lot has changed since last year, and A&M is the better team right now.
As we have come to expect almost every year, there are rumblings echoing from the Plains that Gus Malzahn needs to be fired. If I had a dime for every time Gus Malzahn found himself on the Aubrun hot seat, I would have at least several dimes and he’s only been their coach since 2013. The Tigers are 5-3 on the year, but their three losses have been ugly. One was to a weak South Carolina program and the other two were total blowouts against their rivals, Georgia and Alabama. They lost those two games by a combined 50 points.
Photo: Michael Chang, Getty Images
Another pillar of the Malzahn tenure has been the improbable, unlikely, and unbelievable ways they win games. Kick six, Prayer at Jordan-Hare, etc. This year has been no different. Remember the attempted spike by Bo Nix which was actually a fumble against Arkansas? Or remember the close call on the kickoff against Ole Miss that the referees did not even review? The Arkansas play was more egregious but in both cases, the refs sided with Auburn and aided in those victories. These close calls, some may call them fools gold, are more reasons the Auburn faithful are calling for Malzahn’s removal.
Improbable wins and Malzahn on the hot seat aside, what we have here is an average team. Their offense ranks 8th in the SEC while their defense is 9th. Auburn has not lived up to their expectations. Bo Nix has not improved very much. The defense has taken a step back. Winning on the road in the SEC, even in COVID times, is never easy. But on paper this should be a comfortable win for the Aggies.
That’s why the games are played on the field and not paper, though. I expect this one to be close for several reasons. First, Auburn and Malzahn need a win. The Tigers have been dominated by the only two ranked teams they have played. Fans expect Auburn to beat A&M, regardless of the rankings and there is a massive difference between 5-4 and 6-3. The Tigers will be fired up for this game and I think they will play well. Second, as previously mentioned, Malzahn always seems to find crazy ways to win games just when he needs them. Every time the Auburn faithful start clamoring for him to be fired, ole Gus finds a way to rattle off some wins and flip the narrative. Then he signs a massive contract extension. That’s how it’s done in Auburn, Alabama. So all things considered, this is the perfect game for Auburn and Malzahn to throw in some trickery and win a game not many expect them too. I heard someone say one time that Gus Malzahn has a little cockroach in him - he just won’t die. I think that’s an apt description.
The last reason I expect this one to be close is the location: Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn, and more importantly Bo Nix, play much better at home this year. Maybe Bo Nix is the next Kellen Mond in that regard. But the numbers don’t lie. At home, Nix is 68/105 (65%) for 940 yards, 8 touchdowns and1 interception. On the road, Nix is 91/145 (63%), for 914 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Part of that could be the competition as both Bama and Georgia were on the road, but Nix also threw 3 picks against the Gamecocks. So something is going on there and I expect the home field Nix to show up this weekend.
Enough about Auburn. As I said in the LSU recap, I expect the Aggie offense to be much better this week. The LSU game was an outlier rather than the norm. Look for a heavy dose of Isaiah Spiller again this week as the Auburn defense has been relatively easy to run on, giving up 162 yards per game to their opponents. I think our offensive line returns to form and Spiller and Achane have good days running the ball.
Kellen Mond has to be much sharper too. Although we should be able to run on Auburn much better than we did against LSU, we need to have success through the air. Just like most defenses in the SEC, if Auburn isn't worried about getting beat deep, they will load the box and stop the run. There has to be some threat there to keep them honest. Reports are that Chase Lane is back practicing after he left the LSU game early so we should be at full strength in that department. Jimbo even said Demas will be ready to go after not suiting up last weekend.
Photo: Gerald Herbert, The Eagle
Mond has to get back to form and we need receivers to get open. I think Ainias Smith could be a key in this game which is not surprising. I don’t have much faith right now in Lane or Jones to make big-time plays. So far they have been chain movers primarily but not big-time playmakers downfield. Ainias on the other hand has shown that big-play ability so I’m interested to see how Jimbo tries to get him touches on Saturday.
Defensively I like this matchup. The A&M defense is playing incredible football as of late. 10 points given up in the last two games, both garbage time scores. Tank Bigsby could be limited again this week due to injury, and without him, Auburn has struggled. I think we have another great game defensively. I trust our defensive line and linebackers to stop the run game and our secondary has been good. The Tigers have good receivers, but we have good defensive backs and I don’t think Nix will be accurate enough to make big plays consistently and beat us.
It feels weird being 6-1 and #5 in the College Football Playoff rankings the first weekend of December but Jimbo and the Aggies are there. They have been really good this year and I don’t see that stopping this weekend. Despite Gus Malzahn’s tendency to win games like this, I like the Aggies' chances. There is too much on the line right now for A&M and I think we play a damn good game. Defense travels and defense wins championships. Let’s go wreck these fools.
Aggies - 34
Auburn - 21
#BTHOAuburn
