B&S Week 3 game-by-game Previews
Photo via The Comeback
We’re heading into week three like a freight train, and things are starting to get real. Texas A&M and Auburn both play host big time programs in the non-conference, and both teams really need a win. Ole Miss goes on the road in their first big game of the year, and Vandy is an underdog on the road at Northern Illinois. Why the heck is Vanderbilt playing on the road at Northern Illinois?
Based on what we are seeing so far, the premise that arose last year of fading The Waco Kid is alive and well. But if you have been fading the Hammer or Bossman so far in 2022, you’re doing great as well. We need to turn things around quickly, but for now, do not, under any circumstances, listen to our bets.
Note: We aren’t picking FCS games. Sorry Arkansas, Mizzou and Kentucky fans. We’ll see you back in the picks next week.
Let’s get to it.
#1 Georgia at South Carolina - 12:00pm ET on ESPN (Georgia - 24.5)
Bossman Slim: It’s been a shaky start to the Spencer Rattler era in Columbia and the Gamecocks will need to clean up the mistakes and be all but perfect to beat the Dawgs. I would give them more of a shot if this was a night game at Williams-Brice and the students had all day to get liquored up and rowdy, but it’s a noon game. Georgia looks every bit a national title contender again. We’ve seen crazier things happen in Columbia, and maybe they can call on the ghost of Stephen Garcia to muster up some fight, but I don’t see that happening in this one. Georgia wins and covers.
#1 Georgia 42
South Carolina 14
The Hammer: This is a nightmare matchup for South Carolina. The Gamecock offensive line is the weakest part of the team, and Georgia’s front seven is elite. Yet again, this game will be on the shoulders – or rather arm – of Spencer Rattler. Given how turnover prone Rattler has been so far this year, I have a hard time seeing South Carolina scoring very many points here. And believe it or not that’s a huge problem if you are trying to win a football game. I love the atmosphere in Williams-Brice, but the Dawgs will be just fine. Stetson Bennett looks extremely confident in Monken’s offense as the incumbent starter, and I expect Georgia’s offense to play well here and cover.
#1 Georgia 42
South Carolina 3
The Waco Kid: This is Spencer Rattler vs. Stetson Bennett. Hype vs. Hard work. Heisman watchlist vs. Walk on phenom. The only thing is this really isn’t a competition at all. South Carolina playing Georgia is Bennett’s match up to lose. Not only is he the better QB1 in this contest but he has a defense that is the best in the nation handling an overrated quarterback that already has issues not turning the ball over against weaker competition. SB has already accounted for 5 TDs this season while that Dawg defense has only allowed 3 points to be scored by opposing teams. This should be a blowout and will allow Kirby Smart to get his second team some reps and keep their legs fresh in case they have to play in some tight games down the stretch. What we will learn from this game is just how good Spencer Rattler is and if he hangs up the pads early or continues to fight for his team even down by 30. My guess is the Gamecock’s play caller may get “injured” and will call it a game way before the whistle blows. UGA by 39.
#1 Georgia 52
South Carolina 13
#20 Ole Miss at Georgia Tech - 3:30pm ET on ABC (Ole Miss - 16.5)
Bossman Slim: Ole Miss hasn’t figured out what’s going on at QB yet, which doesn’t give me a ton of confidence in a Rebel blowout win here. Georgia Tech held on against Clemson for three quarters before the wheels fell off, and kept the Tigers running game in check for most of the night. Ole Miss could have trouble in this one based on the questions at QB and Georgia Tech’s ability to stop the run, plus the athleticism of Jeff Sims at QB for the Yellow Jackets. However, Sims has been up and down at quarterback and he’s really a one man show after the departure of Jahmyr Gibbs to Alabama. Even with the unanswered questions for Ole Miss, I think the Rebels get a solid non-conference road win over the Jackets, and I think the Rebels are able to get the run game going with Zach Evans and Quinshon Judkins. Those two are just too difficult to stop. Ole Miss wins and covers.
#20 Ole Miss 31
Georgia Tech 13
The Hammer: Sooo who is starting at QB for the Rebels? Lane Kiffin took a page out of Jim Harbaugh’s book by starting Dart in week 1 and then Altmyer in week 2. It still seems like Dart has the edge here and will get the nod, but it seems as if neither QB has really separated themselves. This is a tricky spot for Ole Miss, who’s played weak competition at home thus far. Georgia Tech is not a very good team, but they have an athletic QB in Jeff Sims who could present some issues defensively. Unfortunately for the Ramblin’ Wreck, Sims has been inconsistent so far this year and throughout his career. Georgia Tech Geoff Collins needs this win in the worst way so I think the Yellow Jackets will play inspired, but it won't be enough to win this one. I like Ole Miss to take care of business, with a garbage time cover from Tech.
#20 Ole Miss 35
Georgia Tech 20
The Waco Kid: Georgia Tech has always been known for running the ball and controlling the clock. However, we have seen some shift with the emergence of their QB Jeff Sims. Still, the Jackets have not found that sweet spot on offense and will continue to struggle to keep up with some of the more high powered units in the nation. Ole Miss is one of these high scoring, high flying squads and their game plan is always outscore the opponent while maybe playing some defense. I do not think Lane Kiffin’s game plan will change in this one. The main thing I want to see is who starts at quarterback. Has Jaxson Dart finally done enough to solidify him as the number one guy in Oxford? Last week both him and Luke Altmyer threw for two TDs each, but no team wants to get into the meat of their schedule with a two QB system. Ole Miss should handle this one but if GT can control the time of possession, it may be closer than expected.
#20 Ole Miss 35
Georgia Tech 27
#22 Penn State at Auburn - 3:30pm ET on CBS (Penn State -2.5)
Bossman Slim: This game was a classic last year in Happy Valley, and I’m really looking forward to this rematch. Similar to the Ole Miss Rebels, Auburn hasn’t figured out what is going on at QB. TJ Finley seems to be the same ol’ same ol’, thought he’s making incremental improvement. I’m not sure he’s up to the task to beat a Penn State team that is more talented than anyone that the Tigers have played to date. The experience and calm, cool, collected poise of Sean Clifford I think leads this Nittany Lions team to a tight win in Jordan Hare, but I expect a fight to the finish. There’s something in the water in Auburn.
#22 Penn State 27
Auburn 23
The Hammer: I can’t wait for this matchup. Not because its going to be great football, but because the game last year was so much fun, and Jordan Hare will be electric. It’s hard to beat a packed Jordan Hare and Tiger fans are foaming at the mouth to beat Penn State after the close loss a year ago in Happy Valley. Penn State is the better team here. Their defense is solid and their offense is usually good enough if Sean Clifford takes care of the ball. Auburn’s offense is completely lost and doesn't have a quality QB. For Auburn to win this game, they are going to need to make some hay on special teams or force multiple turnovers. A defensive touchdown would be nice, too. Look for a defensive battle in this one, as I don’t like Penn State’s offensive line and Sean Clifford on the road in a hostile environment, and I definitely don’t like whatever Auburn’s offense is. Points will be a premium here. I’m going to go against logic here and pick Auburn purely off of emotion. Bryan Harsin needs this game. He knows that, his team knows that, and despite their limitations, I think they find a way to steal this win at home with the help of the Auburn faithful.
#22 Penn State 17
Auburn 20
The Waco Kid: Let’s be honest, even though this is an SEC blog it does not mean that all of the sudden Auburn does not suck and may have a chance to win. I think the Tigers can keep up with the Nittany Lions but they need a guy besides TJ Finley taking the snaps. Let’s say they start Zach Calzada, not only does Bryan Harsin have a guy that is a proven competitor in the SEC but also a player that really has not tapped into his full potential. We get it Finley has insane size and upside but so did Jamarcus Russell going into the NFL. Where did that land him? On the bench with Subway calling everyday asking if he wanted to be the new Jared. Finley has shown the nation enough and if the team from the Plains actually wants to compete, they will find a new guy. Penn State is ranked but hasn’t impressed. That is why I have the game so close, I do not think either is an elite team like I am sure they thought they would be when they scheduled the home-away series. Clifford the Big Red Dog will make just enough plays to overcome the War Eagle defense and pull out a victory.
#22 Penn State 24
Auburn 23
Vanderbilt at Northern Illinois - 3:30pm on CBS Sports Network (Northern Illinois -2.5)
Bossman Slim: After a hot 2-0 start against inferior opponents, Vanderbilt was brought back to earth last week getting smoked by Wake Forest. Mike Wright was benched in favor of freshman AJ Swann, who led the Commodores on two scoring drives late in the contest. Now questions are swirling about Vandy’s QB situation, but Clark Lea has been clear that Wright will get the start against NIU. But how quick is the hook? ESPN gives Vanderbilt a 66% chance to win this one but Vegas gives Northern Illinois a 2.5 point edge. Know what knows what the hell to expect in this one. Both teams have suspect QB play and weak defenses who give up points…and even with those weak QBs, these teams have shown they can put up points. I expect a shootout, but give me the Commodores by a hair.
Vanderbilt 41
Northern Illinois 38
The Hammer: What the hell is Vanderbilt doing playing Northern Illinois on the road? I know it doesn't feel like it at times, but Vandy is an SEC program. They should not be traveling to DeKalb, Illinois for a football game. I don’t know anything about the Huskies other than they are 1-1 with a win over Eastern Illinois and a loss to Tulsa. Vandy has a long ways to go, but they’ve looked competent against weaker opponents so far this year. I’ll take Vandy to win this one outright and obviously cover.
Vanderbilt 38
Northern Illinois 31
The Waco Kid: Thank goodness this is the mid afternoon nap time game. Don’t get me wrong, it may lead to an exciting game, but it is one that I couldn't care less about. The bottom of the SEC, traveling to NIU, sounds like a good time to take a break from college football and prep for the night games. Vandy started off the season on a roll with 2 wins but it seems the Commodores may be back to their true year to year form after last week’s loss to Wake Forest. Mike Wright is still an elite athlete and promising quarterback but the rest of the team needs to develop as well if they have any chance of winning conference games this year. As for this match up Vandy covers and wins by multiple TDs.
Vanderbilt 42
Northern Illinois 21
UL Monroe at #2 Alabama - 4:00pm ET on SEC Network (Alabama - 49)
Bossman Slim: After a lackluster performance in Austin and escaping with a win last week, this is one of those games where Nick Saban has chewed out everyone in the program all week and they come out focused and out for blood. Sorry to ULM for being the next game on the schedule. The fightin’ Terry Bowden’s have made some progress in Monroe but you don’t walk into Bryant Denny and stand a prayer on a normal Saturday, let alone a post-Texas scare Crimson Tide team. Bama, bigly.
#2 Alabama 56
UL Monroe 7
The Hammer: Not much needs to be said on this one. ULM is a bad team, and Alabama is a really good team that is pissed off. After being flagged 15 teams a week ago in Austin, this week of practice could not have been fun for Crimson Tide Players. They are going to come out ready to play in this one and cruise. Roll Tide all day Saturday.
#2 Alabama 56
UL Monroe 3
The Waco Kid: Saban is piiissseeddd, and unfortunately ULM will get the brunt of it. I can only imagine what the Tide players went through this past week at practice after their near loss to Texas. If I had to guess it was a lot of running and extremely loud laughing being played over the intercom every time a mistake was made. Anyways, this will be over before it begins. Bama will regain its composure and score mercilessly against Louisiana Monroe.
#2 Alabama 45
UL Monroe 6
Mississippi State at LSU - 6:00pm ET on ESPN (Miss State -2)
Bossman Slim: This one is going to be fun. Mississippi State looks like they are rounding into form in year three of Mike Leach, right on schedule. LSU still has the stain of the FSU loss on them but got a good win last week against a cupcake. A night game at Death Valley always spots LSU some points, but don’t forget that two years ago Leach walked in and beat the defending national champions on their home turf in game one of the season. I think LSU will improve every week this year, but it’s only Week 3 and I think State is the more disciplined and experienced team here. Give me Hail State to cover.
Mississippi State 35
LSU 27
The Hammer: Love this matchup. Starting 1-2 in Brian Kelly’s first year on the Bayou would not be good for him or his fahhmuhhlee. Luckily for the Bayou Bengals, this one is at night in Death Valley. It’s going to be loud as hell. But I like Mississippi State here. Their defense is solid and veteran laden, and Will Rogers has been around the SEC block. Big crowds won’t bother the Cowboy and he’ll be ready to unload on the Tiger’s secondary, who I think is vulnerable. Mississippi State is just the better team to me right now. LSU has a lot of potential but they are still working their way into a new system, staff, etc.
Mississippi State 34
LSU 24
The Waco Kid: LSU is who we thought they were going to be. A mid tier team that will put together a string of wins but will be nothing special. Brian Kelly has already led them to a loss against a subpar Power 5 team and will most likely lead them to multiple losses in the SEC. Mississippi State will hand them that first conference defeat. The Bulldogs are lookin’ dangerous with Will Rogers behind center. No defense has been able to stop him yet and I do not think the Tigers will start that trend. Leach has entered year 2 with State and is starting to hit his stride with the air raid offense. He has some of the pieces he wanted in place and is making that transition just like he did at Tech and Washington State. Expect the maroon to come out and put up some points and while Jayden Daniels has the potential to be great for LSU, I do not think it will happen against MSU.
Mississippi State 35
LSU 13
Akron at #15 Tennessee - 7:00pm ET on ESPN+ (Tennessee -47.5)
Bossman Slim: Tennessee keeps improving under Heupel, and the win over Pitt last week was yet another example. The Vols didn’t have their best game and still gutted out a gritty win over a solid Pitt team. Being able to not play your best game and find a way to come out with a road win is the mark of a good team. I like what I’m seeing from the Volunteers and the Zips are a cupcake. Tennessee posts a big number and whips the Zips, but don’t cover. That’s a wide spread.
#15 Tennessee 45
Akron 14
The Hammer: Sandwich game here for the Vols between a big win on the road at Pitt and hosting Florida next weekend. Good thing Akron stinks. The Zips (no idea what a Zip is) lost 52-0 to Michigan State last weekend. This will be an easy win for Tennessee and I expect the Vols to be aon cruise control by the second quarter. No need to drag this game out. Get out to a big lead, put in the second string and chew some clock.
#15 Tennessee 52
Akron 7
The Waco Kid: Boring. Hendon Hooker packs his stats for his Heisman run and that is the only excitement throughout the game. Josh Heupel will continue his winning streak against the hometown team of Lebron James. Starters will be out after the first series in the third and the Vols will still more than likely score 28 in the second half.
#15 Tennessee 49
Akron 14
South Florida at #18 Florida - 7:30pm ET on SEC Network (Florida -24.5)
Bossman Slim: The Jeff Scott era hasn’t gone as planned at South Florida, and the Bulls aren’t going to win this one. Florida was humbled last week against Kentucky. Anthony Richardson’s Heisman campaign took a big blow and now it’s back to the drawing board. Baylor transfer Gerry Bohannon is at QB for the Bulls, but Florida is more talented and easily the better team here. Napier will have them ready and a night game in the Swamp is too much for South Florida. Gators to cover.
#18 Florida 41
South Florida 16
The Hammer: Florida’s white hot start to the season came to a screeching halt last weekend at the hands of Mark Stoops and Kentucky. Welcome to the SEC, Billy Napier and Anthony Richardson. The Gators get a reprieve this weekend though will the South Florida Bulls coming to town. South Florida is a bad football team and the Gators should handle their business here. All eyes will be on Anthony Richardson here as he looks to bounce back from a dismal performance against Kentucky. This is a game he should dominate, and I expect Napier to get him some easy throws early and use his legs. The Gators win big here.
#18 Florida 42
South Florida 17
The Waco Kid: There seem to be a lot of cupcake games for the SEC this week. South Florida is another one of those opponents. The Gators should roll through this one but I also thought they would have no issue with Kentucky. I will say the Wildcats are a different animal this year and look to be a contender in the East. To stay in the hunt for a division title Florida will need to win all of their East games and at least play UGA a close game. I expect Napier to make Anthony Richardson throw the ball a lot against the Bulls and spread out the offense, just so he can get some game time practice and sharpen his passing tools. The rush attack and defense should have their way on Saturday. They can rest easy Friday night knowing their foe for the weekend will be one of the easier ones this season.
#18 Florida 35
South Florida 12
#13 Miami at #24 Texas A&M - 9:00pm ET on ESPN (Texas A&M -5.5)
Bossman Slim: 9:00 ET kick? Brutal for eastern time zone folks. Texas A&M has shown us nothing through two weeks for any of us to think they should win this game. Word out of College Station is that Haynes King and Max Johnson have been splitting first team reps in practice. I expect Haynes King to trot out and start and get 1-2 series to get things going before Jimbo pulls the plug and inserts Johnson if necessary. Having a night game at Kyle Field gives A&M an edge. What is a little wild to see is that Haynes King and Tyler Van Dyke have almost identical stat lines through two games. But that’s why you watch the games. This is a big test for both teams. I think A&M’s back is against the wall…those teams are always dangerous. I expect Jimbo to have them ready for this one, and I think the Aggies eek out a win.
#24 Texas A&M 26
#13 Miami 24
The Hammer: I hate what I’m about to do here. There is no reason to be optimistic about A&M moving forward outside of the talent on that roster, but dammit give me the Aggies to win this game. I’m not sold on Miami. I think they are overhyped and Mario Cristobal is a great recruiter, but his teams at Oregon fell short of expectations at times. The Hurricanes have not been tested so far in 2022, facing Bethune Cookman and Southern Miss. Coming to Kyle Field at night against a team who’s back is against the wall worries me for Miami and Tyler Van Dyke. The Aggies are backed into a corner and this is a must win. I expect them to come out with their hair on fire, similar to how they did against Alabama a year ago. I looked back at Van Dyke’s career and his biggest road games to date are at UNC, at Pitt and at FSU from 2021. He beat UNC and Pitt and lost to FSU. With the expected return of key players in the trenches for A&M, and Max Johnson likely seeing snaps at QB, I’ll take the Aggies to win a close one at home. I am begging Jimbo and A&M to not let me down here, otherwise this season will get ugly real quick.
#13 Miami 20
#24 Texas A&M 24
The Waco Kid: How Texas A&M is favored in this showdown is beyond me, but I love it. The Canes are yesteryear’s news and Cristobal does not have them back to relevance quite yet. Sure, they beat Bethane-Cook and Southern Miss, and sure A&M lost to Appalachian State, also known as Jack or Jamie Lannister or the Giant Slayer or more recently Daemon Targaryeon (but that is for other reasons, right Mountaineers? Wink wink), but TAMU has a good team full of talent. Jimbo has just not quite gotten everything out of them that he can, and that is in part due to his decision making and in part due to the lack of decent quarterback play. Hopefully we see a high dosage of LSU transfer Max Johnson in this game because if we do, I think we may see an Aggie team that could compete for an SEC West title. That may be getting ahead of myself but anything is possible with the right personnel and play calling. Especially for a team with as much talent as they have down in College Station. Of course the maroon and white will need to gameplan for Tyler Van Dyke but their defense has not been what is lacking this season. I think they will get plenty of pressure on the highly talked about Miami QB and force him into bad decisions in which an experienced secondary will take advantage of. If A&M can just score and hold on to the ball this could become a surprising spread of a game.
#13 Miami 24
#24 Texas A&M 38