B&S Week 12 game-by-game previews
Cupcake week is here, but there is still some good matchups in the SEC.
By: The Waco Kid, The Hammer, Bossman Slim
It’s going to be cold in Fayetteville, Arkansas on Saturday Night. Photo via @OleMissFB
Cupcake Week, or “Lettuce Week” as it’s been dubbed by Cole Cubelic, is here. We’ve got mostly gimme games up and down this Saturday’s SEC slate, but there are a couple of SEC-on-SEC matchups that are worth our attention. There’s also a couple of non-conference games that we think are worth keeping an eye on, but we won’t preview those - just take our word for it that you shouldn’t overlook Western Kentucky-Auburn and UAB-LSU. UAB isn’t as good as in recent years and we expect LSU to get an easy win…but you never know.
This season is a race to the finish amongst the crew with Bossman still clinging to a one-game lead in the straight up standings and The Waco Kid barely ahead of the pack in the ATS standings. It’s gonna be a fun race to the finish to see who gets crowned King Biscuit.
Let’s dig into the SEC previews.
Florida at Vanderbilt - 12:00 ET on SEC Network (UF -14)
Bossman Slim: Vandy is riding high off of their win against #24 Kentucky last week, gaining some confidence heading into their matchup with the Gators. Unfortunately for the Commodores, Florida is starting to hit a stride late in the season. Billy Napier has started to figure out how to use Anthony Richardson’s elite run game ability and is pairing it well with the emerging two-headed monster of Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr. As a team, Florida has rushed for 975 yards in their last 4 games, averaging 244 yards on the ground per game. That’s pretty darn good any way you spin it, against any competition - and all four of those games were in SEC play. That should give UF a big advantage, and they must be salivating watching the tape of this last-ranked Vandy run defense, who just gave up 213 yards rushing to Kentucky and 208 yards rushing to South Carolina two weeks ago. Vandy also must be thinking the same thing - we can establish the run on these guys. Vandy’s only chance is to get their run game going, which is averaging 159 yards on the ground. Mike Wright has wheels, and AJ Swann could be back in the fold, but Clark Lea is keeping it close to the vest as to who is going to be the starter in this one. I think Florida is too much for Vandy and will overwhelm them on the ground, but Vandy keeps it close until halftime with their renewed confidence and home-field “advantage.”
Florida 44
Vanderbilt 24
The Hammer: Is Vandy football back? People are asking. Unfortunately, I’m not even sure what “back” would constitute for the Commodores, but they did pick up their first SEC win of the Clark Lea era last week. Now they are back home and hosting a surging Florida team, who looks to be playing their best ball of the year. I’d love to pick Vandy to keep the good vibes rolling in Nashville but I like tha Gators here. Anthony Richardson is playing better football as of late, and the two headed monster of Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne in the backfield will be tough for Vandy to slow down. Both Johnson and Etienne are averaging over 6 yards per carry this year, and Vanderbilt surrenders 164.3 rushing yards per game to their opponents. I expect those two backs and Anthony Richardson to have success on the ground on Saturday and get over 200 yards rushing as a group. On the other side, Vandy should be able to move the ball with Mike Wright at QB and Ray Davis at tailback against a leaky Florida run defense that allows 171.2 yards per game. In the end, I just don’t see Vandy having enough firepower to keep up with Florida. Gators fans will be partying on Broadway after this one.
Florida 48
Vanderbilt 28
The Waco Kid: Vanderbilt is coming off probably their best conference win in over a decade and are looking to extend that high when they host Florida in Nashville this weekend. I said last week there was no way they could beat Kentucky but the elements in Lexington had a different plan. Due to snowy conditions, the Wildcats were never really able to deploy an air attack which they had relied on to pull away from opponents and close out games throughout the year. The Commodores relied on the one efficient part of their offensive scheme which has been the ground game specifically from QB Mike Wright. When Wright has been able to run the ball, Vandy’s offense has been able to put points on the board and even win a few games. Luckily poor weather did not hinder a game plan solely based upon rushing. This Saturday will be a completely different story. You are looking at a sunny yet chilly Tennessee afternoon that does not feature any sign of snow. Because of this there is no way that the ‘Dores can keep up with the Gators offensive firepower especially now that Anthony Richardson has started to progress as the guy under center. AR15 controls the game when he keeps the ball on the ground and make no mistake Billy Napier will make sure this happens. I expect to see two rushing TDs from Richardson as well as a passing score. The UF backs will have a field day against a weaker defensive line and this should be out of reach for Clark Lea’s team by the time the second half starts. Florida covers but at 57.5 points, I would bet the under due to Vandy’s questionable offense.
Florida 38
Vanderbilt 17
#1 Georgia at Kentucky - 3:30 ET on CBS (UGA -22.5)
Bossman Slim: This one probably couldn’t come at a worse time for Kentucky, who is reeling after a loss to SEC doormat (but maybe doormat no longer) Vanderbilt and dealing with failing under the weight of their own pre-season expectations. At 6-4, this is not what Big Blue Nation had in mind when looking at this team in the preseason, but here we are. Georgia on the other hand is in a groove and looking every bit the part of national champion. They boast the #2 offense in the SEC and a suffocating defense that is giving up just 11 points per game. Kentucky’s offense has been anemic much of the season but especially in recent weeks, averaging just 18 PPG in their last six contests. Will Levis can’t get things going through the air and continues to turn the ball over, but is also constantly under pressure due to an offensive line that is barely there. That spells serious trouble. With all that said, I’m picking Georgia big - but not to cover. This is one of those ones where I’m going with my gut, I think Kentucky does just enough to cover this wide spread. Remember, Kentucky’s defense is no slouch either and have only given up more than 24 points in a game once this season - against Tennessee a couple of weeks ago.
#1 Georgia 38
Kentucky 20
The Hammer: Many folks had this game circled in preseason as the game that would decide the SEC East race. I know Kentucky fans did at least. Oh, how the “mighty” have fallen as Kentucky is currently sitting at 6-4 overall and 3-4 in the SEC. They have been out of the SEC East race since South Carolina beat them several weeks ago. On the year, Kentucky’s defense has been really good outside of the Tennessee game, allowing an average of 20 points per game. Unfortunately, their offense has been putrid, averaging a mere 23.3 points per game. This shapes up to be a terrible matchup for the Wildcats as Georgia’s defense is as dominant as ever. I don’t see how Kentucky moves the ball in this one. I think Kentucky’s defense will give the Dawgs some fits early on and keep this one competitive, but ultimately Georgia will be too much and pull away. Don’t forget Kentucky just lost to Vanderbilt so expecting them to turn around and take down UGA is a tall task. Hungry Dawgs eat first.
#1 Georgia 34
Kentucky 10
The Waco Kid: This was a game to watch out for in the East at the beginning of the season, now it is just a game to watch to pass the time until the later matchups. You don’t come off a home loss to Vanderbilt and somehow defeat the #1 Georgia Bulldogs. Home game or not this might get out of hand very quickly especially if the Wildcats are as one dimensional offensively as they were last weekend. Yes, Chris Rodriguez can control the game and clock but you have to be able to open up the passing attack against a defense that can stop just about every type of offensive scheme. Georgia is going to score A LOT and I do not think UK will be able to keep pace with the Studson Bennett led offense. The only chance they have is if Chris Rodriguez bleeds the clock through three quarters and does not allow the Dawg offense on the field. The red and black will most likely score on every drive and this could get out of hand quickly. UGA covers and wins by at least 28.
#1 Georgia 48
Kentucky 20
#5 Tennessee at South Carolina - 7:00 ET on ESPN (UT -22)
Bossman Slim: South Carolina does not have a chance in this game, let’s get that out of the way right off the bat. It is a night game in Williams-Brice, so that should give them some energy at the start of this game. But the Gamecocks don’t have the defense to stop this Tennessee attack, and they sure as heck don’t have the offense to keep up with what the Vols will put up on the scoreboard. I think we’ve seen what we need to see from Spencer Rattler - he’s not the savior of this program with 8 TDs and 9 INTs on the year. He continues to make bad decisions and force throws when plays break down, which they do often with his suspect offensive line. Meanwhile, Tennessee is on a vengeance tour after their loss to Georgia and will look to hang 100 and anyone who steps on the field with them in order to give a good showing to the College Football Playoff committee. I don’t think Tennessee misses a beat here and wins, big.
#5 Tennessee 52
South Carolina 21
The Hammer: South Carolina has had a really up and down year. They’ve won several games that no one expected them to win, and they’ve also been blown out by Georgia, Florida and to a certain extent, Arkansas. The recipe for the Gamecocks to win any game is either scoring on defense or special teams, or at least winning the turnover battle by a significant margin to help their offense. That’s because their offense stinks. Spencer Rattler is really inconsistent and the offense line has struggled to block for him and the Gamecock running backs. This lines up great for Tennessee who has a strong front seven that can put pressure on QBs and stop the run. The Vols secondary is the weaker link on defense, but South Carolina is not capable of taking advantage. I expect Rattler to be under pressure often and the run game to get stuffed most of the night. On the other side of the ball, South Carolina’s defense is vulnerable and the Vols are going to hang a big number for style points. They did it last weekend against Mizzou, scoring 66, and they are going to do it again to the Gamecocks.
#5 Tennessee 52
South Carolina 17
The Waco Kid: South Carolina has no shot in this one. Even the non cupcake games this week look more and more like easy matchups for the higher ranked teams. Tennessee has been nearly unstoppable this season, only being slowed by the Bulldogs of Georgia. The Gamecock’s defense will not be able to stop the Vols and with Spencer Rattler at the helm, may not be able to score more than 14 points. That’s right I did it again. I brought up the SC quarterback that I not only think is not a good SEC play caller but may be one of the worst decision makers in all of college football. He cannot seem to go a week without turning the ball over and I do not believe he is a consistent winner at the college level. I know I’ve said it all before but for some reason people still think he has the potential to lead the Cocks into the upper echelon of the East. The fact is he couldn’t win the easiest conference in the nation, the Big 12. Heck, he couldn’t even keep his starting position against teams that didn’t even play defense. UT will shut this guy down and easily cover the spread. Hendon Hooker will throw all over the SC defense and Jalin Hyatt will most likely add a 16th receiving TD against his home state team. Tennessee by 25.
#5 Tennessee 45
South Carolina 20
#14 Ole Miss at Arkansas - 7:30 ET on SEC Network (Ole Miss -2.5)
Bossman Slim: It sounds like KJ Jefferson will be back for this matchup, but how healthy is he? With Jefferson playing banged up against Liberty, the Hogs still lost. If he’s still playing nicked up, I don’t like the Razorbacks chances. With this one being at home and Ole Miss coming off a hard-fought loss to Alabama and this one being on the road, the oddsmakers obviously think this one could be a letdown for the Rebels. I am not of the same mind. The Arkansas defense clamped down last week against LSU, holding the Tigers to 13 points. However, on the ground, they gave up nearly 200 yards rushing and over 100 to a former walk on. On the season, they’re giving up 280 yards a game on the ground and over their last four, they’ve given up an average of 147 YPG. Ole Miss is the top rushing offense in the nation outside of two of the service academies, putting up 259 YPG on the ground. Quinshon Judkins is a freak and if Zach Evans is back, I think Ole Miss will run all over the Hogs defense, and I think Jaxson Dart will be able to hit some chunk plays against this weak Arkansas secondary. The one lingering question is how are the Auburn rumors affecting the Ole Miss locker room? That could be an unseen factor in tnis game, but I don’t think it will be much of an issue. I like the Rebels to win and cover here.
#14 Ole Miss 37
Arkansas 26
The Hammer: This is the biggest matchup of the weekend. The weather could be a factor here as it's expected to be below freezing by kickoff. Precipitation is not expected, but boys from the deep south don’t typically play football in this cold weather. Luckily for Ole Miss, they can run the damn ball. Zach Evan’s health remains a question mark, but as long as Quinshon Judkins is carrying the ball, the Rebel offense will be fine. KJ Jefferson is expected to be back but I’m really interested to see if he’s fully healthy. He looked really bad against Liberty, and he didn't seem healthy. If he isn’t able to be more effective in this game, the Hogs are in trouble. One more thing to consider here is how motivated Ole Miss is after their loss last weekend, eliminating them from SEC Championship contention, and with all the rumors about Lane Kiffin and Auburn swirling. Personally, I’m not too worried about that stuff. I think Lane will have his guys ready to play. I trust Judkins, Dart and the Rebel offense to move the ball in this one. LSU had a former walk-on running back run for 122 yards last weekend against the Hogs and LSU hasn't been able to run the ball on anyone with their tailbacks. ARkansas doesnt have the depth to hold off that offense for four quarters and Judkins is a punishing back to face. Lane Kiffin’s future in Oxford may be in doubt, but the Rebs beating Arkansas this weekend is not.
#14 Ole Miss 28
Arkansas 23
The Waco Kid: Looks like the crew here at B&S is going to agree with all the outcomes this weekend. It’s an easy Saturday to agree upon based on some of the matchups but if there were one game I would put an upset alert on in the SEC it would be this one. Arkansas always seems to hang around in big games and I doubt playing Ole Miss will be any different. The Razorbacks are coming off a close 13-10 loss to the West champions, LSU while Mississippi screwed the pooch last weekend and couldn’t finish the Tide off in the second half. If there was ever a year for Kiffin to best his mentor, this was the season. I mean Bama has not been nearly as dominant as they typically are and the Rebs have stayed in the top 25 throughout the season which is not typical in Oxford. Usually we see at least one or two more losses in the books but they have looked very good throughout the 2022 campaign. AU has a chance to win this if KJ Jefferson takes over the game and controls the clock but I think the rushing attack of QB Jaxson Dart paired with outstanding freshman running back Quinshon Judkins will be too much for the piggies to keep up with. Judkins alone has amassed over 400 yards rushing in the past three games and I am sure he will have no issue running for another hundo in this one. The line is high at 65.5 but I am pounding the over and looking forward to a track race. The only thing that could make this game more entertaining is if QJ ran out of the tunnel yelling Quinshon Juuuuddddkkkiiinnnnnnss.
#14 Ole Miss 48
Arkansas 34