Biscuits & SEC Week 12 game-by-game previews 2024
Tennessee and Georgia meet in Sanford Stadium hoping to deliver each other a knockout blow.
By: Bossman, Hammer
We’ve reached Week 12, which means the regular season is winding down. In the first year of the divisionless SEC, it’s shaping up to be a photo finish that *likely* ends in a tiebreaker scenario to see who heads to Atlanta. This week has major implications on those scenarios and who could end up in the playoff, with many eyes trained on Sanford Stadium.
Here’s a look back at how the B&S Crew fared with their picks last week:
The race remains fairly even, though Waco Kid’s chances of winning the straight-up column are nearly dashed with just a few weeks to play and needing to make up six games to take the lead. Unlikely that he takes the top spot there, but he’s in a solid position to win the gambler’s column.
Let’s hit the previews.
Bossman: I want to think that Arkansas has a real shot here, but the last time we saw this team off a bye and I gave them a real chance, they squandered it against LSU at home, losing 34-10, and turned the ball over three times. Even with another bye week ahead of the Texas game, this matchup is worse for the Hogs. The Texas defense is the best in the conference statistically (though their level of competition has been…low) and has forced 20 turnovers on the year. Arkansas loves to give the ball to the other team, and we’re nearing Christmastime so I expect them to give the Horns a few gifts. The Longhorns have turnover issues of their own, but they can make up for it with their firepower on offense. Arkansas has the capability to do that as well, but this Texas defense will be too much to overcome. If they could only manage 10 points against LSU, why should I expect them to score much more against a top-notch Texas unit? I’ll take the Horns to cover.
#3 Texas 35
Arkansas 17
Hammer: I am torn on this game. Part of me thinks that Arkansas won’t be able to cover the Texas weapons and will get torched like they did against Ole Miss. The last two highly ranked teams that came to Fayetteville, LSU and Ole Miss, whipped Arkansas. Yet, this same team beat Tennessee at home earlier in the year. With the ease of Texas’ schedule, a noon game at Reynolds-Razorback Stadium will actually be their toughest road game of the season so far. Given that, I think Arkansas can keep it close. They just need to withstand an early barrage from Texas because the recipe for Arkansas to win is to muddy this game up, control time of possession, and keep the lethal Texas offense on the sidelines. I’m looking for Landon Jackson to have a good game here and frustrate Ewers. Give me Arkansas to keep this closer than this big spread.
#3 Texas 31
Arkansas 21
Waco Kid:
Arkansas 27
#3 Texas 21
Bossman: Does DJ play, or does he not? If he plays, Florida can keep this close. If he doesn’t, I think LSU covers with ease. Without Lagway, the Gators don’t have much to work with. In six quarters of play, Aiden Warner has averaged 99 yards, a 39.9% completion rate, zero TDs, and 1.5 INTs. He’s also not a mobile quarterback, which is LSU's Achilles heel. Plus, it looked like the Florida defense might have been on the upswing until Quinn Ewers lit them up last week for 333 yards and five TDs. Garrett Nussmeier is a gunslinger in his own right, even with the disappointing last few weeks. I don’t think Lagway plays, and even if he does, I’m expecting he won’t be 100% with his legs enough to scare the Tiger defense. LSU to win and cover.
#22 LSU 34
Florida 20
Hammer: It seems like DJ Lagway is slated to play in this one. That should give Florida fans hope because LSU can’t stop a running quarterback to save their life. However, I am skeptical that Lagway can really be a factor with his legs, even if he plays. He was carted off the field with a hamstring injury two weeks ago, so to think he will be back and able to use his legs to his full capabilities already seems unlikely to me. With that backdrop, I like LSU to get a win on the road here. LSU lost out on their playoff hopes last week, so there is a risk of them just packing it in and telling Brian Kelly to shove it. I’m not ready to go that far though. For as unlikeable as Kelly appears, he typically does a good job of keeping his teams engaged. Plus, LSU still only has two conference losses so in theory, they are alive for the SEC title. Garrett Nussmeier could get right in this game as well. The Florida secondary has been gashed multiple times this year, and if Nussmeier can take care of the ball, which has become a big issue lately, he should be able to torch the Gator secondary. I’ll take LSU to get a big bounceback win and cover this one.
#22 LSU 34
Florida 24
Waco Kid:
#22 LSU 34
Florida 17
Bossman: I’ve been bashing Mizzou all season, yet somehow this team is 7-2. Look at their schedule, watch their highlights, or if you’ve suffered through watching their games, you know it’s a miracle that they sit at 7-2. Still, credit where it’s due, the team has fought through obstacles this year and is still in the hunt, though it feels like it’s teetering on the edge. Eli Drinkwitz is still thinking playoff, but most outside observers are rightly skeptical of that, including me. I think we can put those ideas to bed this week. Red-hot South Carolina hosts the Tigers in a late afternoon game in Columbia, and Shane Beamer’s team is brimming with confidence. I like where LaNorris Sellers is at and he’s turning into the true dual-threat that Gamecocks fans expected to see when he first stepped on campus. I think the Gamecocks ride the wave of momentum and take down Mizzou, but won’t cover.
#21 South Carolina 28
#23 Missouri 20
Hammer: I’ll cut right to the chase here. I think South Carolina dominates Missouri in this game. Mizzou is a good story because they play hard as hell for Drinkwitz, and they are sitting at 7-2 after going 10-2 a year ago. They know how to win games. A great example of that is their win last week against Oklahoma. But so far in 2024, they have played two SEC road games and lost by a combined 65 points. Those two losses were at Texas A&M, who South Carolina beat by 24 in Columbia, and Alabama, who South Carolina lost two on the road by two points. Just look across the board at their common opponents and South Carolina has consistently handled those common opponents better than Mizzou. Plus, Brady Cook is listed as doubtful for this game. Drew Pyne played admirably a week ago against Oklahoma but that was at home and South Carolina’s defense is better than OU’s, especially on the defensive line. I expect Kyle Kinnard and Dylan Stewart to wreak havoc in this game and South Carolina to cruise to another win at home.
#21 South Carolina 31
#23 Missouri 13
Waco Kid:
#23 Missouri 21
#21 South Carolina 17
Bossman: This one is the granddaddy of the weekend. Both of these teams need a win to keep their goals in front of them. It’s essentially a knockout game for the SEC title game and the playoff, though if Tennessee loses they still have an outside shot with just two losses. If Tennessee’s offense was doing what it was supposed to do all season, I would pick the Vols in a heartbeat because of their defense (second overall in the SEC). However, even though they rank third in the SEC in total offense, it hasn’t been so pretty. While many expected it to look like a knife through butter, it has looked more like a spoon in oatmeal. They’re able to eat, but it’s not smooth or pleasant to look at. The same could be said about Georgia, whose fans have had to suffer through a year where watching this offense often feels like getting a root canal. With the offenses and quarterbacks being a tossup, I lean on who has the better defense. Most years, that would obviously be Georgia. Not this season – that’s the Tennessee Volunteers. We just the Ole Miss defensive front to frustrate Carson Beck and stifle the Dawgs run game, and I think Tennessee’s front will have similar success. Maybe not to the degree of Ole Miss, but they’ll do enough to keep Carson Beck on his heels much of the night. I also think it’s a game where Dylan Sampson goes over 100 yards and adds another TD or two to his resume. I’m taking the Vols!
#7 Tennessee 26
#12 Georgia 23
Hammer: Whoa Nelly. Just imagine the Keith Jackson intro for this game. It would be a thing of beauty, and that’s how big this game is. Georgia is fighting for their playoff lives and their pride. In the last few years, Georgia hasn't lost these games. They just haven’t until last week. And after getting punched in the face last week at Ole Miss, we’re about to find out what this Georgia Dawgs team is made of. Do they have any pride? Any mental toughness? Knowing Kirby, I am sure they do so I expect them to come out with their hair on fire for a night game in Sanford Stadium. But given how poorly this offense has looked, and the fact that Trevor Etienne will not play, does it matter? Can they score enough to win? Tennessee’s defense is nasty and will not make anything easy in this one. Simply put, Carson Beck will have to win this game for Georgia. He doesn’t have to light the world on fire, but he can’t turn the ball over and he will have to make a handful of throws downfield to keep Tennessee honest. Luckily for Beck, he has the Georgia defense to rely on, and Vols offense has not looked great. Dylan Sampson has been the best running back in the SEC, but you can’t simply run the ball right at the heart of the Georgia defense. I assume Nico will play in this game, but can he make consistent throws downfield in this one? Dont’e Thornton Jr is also questionable, which would be a big loss for the Vol receiver corps. In the end, I keep going back and forth on who I think will win because I truly think it’s a coin flip. Given that sentiment, it should come as no surprise that I am picking Tennessee to cover. But I will take Georgia to win the ballgame. A Kirby Smart team with their backs against the wall playing a night game at home? I’ll take them to simply figure out a way to win. One way or another.
#12 Georgia 20
#7 Tennessee 17
Waco Kid:
#12 Georgia 42
#7 Tennessee 24
