B&S Week 3 game-by-game previews 2023
SEC play starts in Week 3, so we’ve got a couple interesting games to keep our eye on.
By: Bossman Slim, Hammer, Waco Kid
Week 3 is here, which means we are nearly one-quarter of the way through the season so don’t blink. I’ve seen some chatter around the college football world that this week’s slate of games is weak. Well, beauty is the eye of the beholder and I’m jacked up about multiple games this weekend across our great conference and sport.
Things aren’t looking terrible straight up and the fellas have a chance to break .500 this week. We’ll see how things shake out ATS, but Waco Kid needs to make up some serious ground or he’s going to be begging to pay his bookie back in really cool polished rocks he picked up in Sante Fe.
Bossman Slim: Interesting game here. Frankly, we don’t know a ton about these two teams as we only have two weeks to go off of and the range of competition they’ve both played spans the spectrum. LSU’s secondary was the big issue against FSU, but Mississippi State is throwing the ball much less under new OC Kevin Barbay. If State can take down LSU, I’m going to start calling this offense the “Barbay Pirates.” This will be LSU’s first test with Maason Smith back, and I expect him to play a crucial role in stopping this State ground attack led by Woody Marks. The Bulldogs defense has been middling so far and gave up more real estate than a housing bubble against Arizona. I think this is where LSU gets on track and lights it up through the air. It’s a sleepy noon game and the cowbells will be rocking, so I don’t expect an LSU cover, but give me the Tigers in a close, higher-scoring affair.
#14 LSU 38
Mississippi State 31
Hammer: This game will really help us determine who LSU is in 2023. After a really disappointing loss in week one, the Tigers took care of business against Grambling so it's hard to glean much from that. Now they hit the road to face a feisty, veteran Mississippi State team, fresh off an overtime win against Arizona last week. One thing that worried me from the Grambling game is LSU giving up 5.6 yards per carry. Was it just a lack of focus or effort given the opponent and score? Or is it a sign of potential weakness? Hard to say just yet, but the new Bulldog offense will test it cause they love to run the dang ball. New OC Kevin Barbay has flipped this offense on its head, and through two games Cowboy Will Rogers has only thrown 46 passes compared to 78 rushing attempts. Bulldog tailback Woody Marks is leading the SEC in rushing with 250 yards through two games. This has all the makings of a close game. It’s in Starkville and Mississippi State has veterans all over the field who will play hard, tough, and smart. LSU has talent all over the field but they don’t always play smart and hard. Harold Perkins is the X-factor here. He’s been a nonfactor so far in 2023 trying to get situated at a new linebacker spot, but the Tigers need him. If he can get into the backfield and disrupt Rogers and the State running game, I like LSU’s chances. If he continues to sit around and wait for the game to come to him, Mississippi State is good enough to win this game. I like LSU in a close one so give me the Bulldogs to cover.
#14 LSU 26
Mississippi State 21
Waco Kid: This is by far the best SEC game of the week. Mississippi State hasn’t lost yet and LSU’s only loss has been to a top 10 FSU team. The Tigers also came out and scored 72 points against Grambling State last week. That is a lot of points to be scoring against any other college football team. It looked like Jayden Daniels found his groove and started to get comfortable which could be a real problem for the conference going forward. He threw for 5 scores and 270 yards last weekend and will try to light up the Bulldog secondary in similar fashion. He will not be nearly as effective but I think still does plenty to win the game. MSU is still attacking with an impressively balanced offense. The duo of Rogers and Marks in the backfield is dynamic, but reminiscent of Kentucky’s Levis and C-Rod last year. We all know how that ended up, two guys can only carry a team so far. I think they get a little exposed against a good Tiger defense and find trouble being as productive. So LSU wins no doubt but the struggle is the spread. It’s a great spread at 9.5 points because this could stay close until the 4th quarter. I’ll say Brian Kelly and company do not cover the spread but do leave Starkvegas with another win in the books.
#14 LSU 34
Mississippi State 28
Bossman Slim: What a fun matchup. On paper, these teams are fairly even when it comes to talent, which means coaching will make the difference in this one. Kansas State is consistently well-coached and disciplined, maximizing every ounce of talent their players have and overachieving. Missouri has a similar makeup but has not found the same success under Eli Drinkwitz. Since the preseason, I’ve been saying I think Mizzou could be a surprise team, especially because of their returning production and experience. I think this is the year that ol’ Drink and the Tigers get over the .500 hump and it starts against K-State. On defense I like the Tigers to do just enough to bottle up this Wildcats offense and I think the playmakers on the outside for Mizzou (Theo Wease and Luther Burden) make the difference. I like the Tigers at home in a close one.
Mizzou 31
#15 Kansas State 28
Hammer: This is a huge game for Eli Drinkwitz and the Missouri Tigers. This is Drink’s 4th season in Columbia and he has just one win over a ranked opponent which came against South Carolina a year ago. Plus, Mizzou got boat raced by Kansas State last season in Manhattan. Can they deliver some payback? I’m skeptical. Luther Burden looks the part for the Tigers offense so far, but outside of him, I have trouble seeing enough weapons. Kansas State is a well-coached, sound, and disciplined team that won’t beat themselves. Based on what we have seen from Mizzou’s offense so far, they don’t seem to have enough weapons to consistently beat Kansas State. The Tigers struggled to run the ball against Middle Tennessee so it's likely they struggle against the Wildcats too. If this game rests on the shoulders of Brady Cook and the Tiger’s passing game, they won’t have enough juice to win. I expect Kansas State to have a solid game plan built to limit Luther Burden and keep Mizzou’s offense in check. On the other side of the ball, Kansas State hasn’t found much success running the ball either, but I trust Will Howard to be smart and make throws more than I do Brady Cook. I look for this one to be close but Kansas State escapes with a win.
#15 Kansas State 23
Missouri 19
Waco Kid: More times than not I’m going to bet against the Big 12 when pitted against the SEC. But this year something has been happening, something weird, some may say the college football apocalypse is quickly approaching. A Georgia loss would mean the horsemen have come and slain all of the best among us. It could be the end of the NCAA as we know it. I mean Texas winning by 10, Miami beating down A&M, Ole Miss barely pulling out a win against Tulane. This is the year anything can happen so for this matchup, I’m going with the top-15 team in Kansas State. Mizzou is on the right track but is staring down the barrel at their first real competition of the season. And they haven’t looked impressive in wins over South Dakota or Middle Tennessee. The Tigers are struggling offensively, not necessarily moving the ball but turning that movement into points. On the flip side, K-State has scored an average of 43.5 points and only allowed 13 on the season. Yes, it was against bottom-tier competition but they have put together all-around solid performances behind quarterback Will Howard and their defense looks like one that could propel them into another conference championship. I think Mizzou slows them on offense but is stifled by the Wildcat defense. I think K-State covers with ease.
#15 Kansas State 31
Missouri 13
Bossman Slim: You know how players sit out bowl games to preserve their health for the next level? With the way South Carolina’s line has played through two games, Spencer Rattler may want to tell Shane Beamer he’s sitting out this week to ensure he doesn’t come out of this one in casts. The Bulldogs defensive line is as mean as ever, and I expect them to go haywire on this Carolina O-line. The Dawgs must have been salivating in the film room. Unless this offensive line improves considerably over the next few weeks, I don’t expect much from the Gamecocks this season, and I don’t expect much from them on Saturday. I’m more interested to see how Georgia’s offense looks against an SEC defense. It’s Carson Beck’s first real start against good competition, so we’ll see what that looks like. With it being Beck’s first start in the SEC, I think Georgia wins handily but has to pull away in the second half, and they don’t cover because of that. That will have Georgia fans lighting up the phone lines again on Monday asking why Bobo’s offense keeps starting slow.
#1 Georgia 41
South Carolina 17
Hammer: I suppose this is the first “real” test for the Dawgs, but it's hard to call it that when they are favored by just under four touchdowns. It’s a conference game but clearly, the expectation is a Bulldogs blowout. I think South Carolina’s defense might be able to hold things together for a while, given the UGA offense hasn't looked as sharp under Carson Beck as it was with Stetson Tombstone Bennett. However, the Gamecock offense is in for a long day unless their offensive line suddenly learns how to block. I don’t see a scenario where Spencer Rattler has enough time in the pocket to really do any damage. Rattler has played well so far in 2023 but it’s hard to expect much out of him against a very good defense with this offensive line. I expect Brock Bowers to have a big game in this one and UGA will cruise to a victory after it stays close for a while.
#1 Georgia 41
South Carolina 6
Waco Kid: Georgia hasn’t missed a beat on offense after losing Stetson Bennett and their defense has allowed 10 total points on the season. Carson Beck stepped into the starting quarterback position and looks poised to have a breakout season, already throwing for over 550 yards on the year. The offense has gotten some slow starts but their defense is still that dirty dawg D that continues to be top in the nation year after year. Add in a special teams unit that can score and all Beck really needs to do is not make mental errors. Some may say South Carolina is their first test. I’d more so put it as their first quiz of the season. A little more difficult but should be able to roll through with flying colors. The Gamecocks have already lost to one top-25 team in UNC and the Tar Heels are nowhere near as talented as the Dawgs. Oh, and they allowed tiny baby Furman to put up 21 points on their defense. Ouch, not a good look. Surprisingly, Spencer Rattler has been the most impressive-looking player on the field for the first two weeks. He’s thrown for almost 700 yards and while that may not be translating to points, what’s even more admirable is his lack of turnovers. This guy loves giving other teams the ball last year but this season looks like the top playcaller he came out of high school as. I expect the turnovers to be abundant against UGA but they are a whole different beast. This shouldn’t even be close but if Kirby’s offense gets off to a slow start they could find themselves fighting back from a small deficit. Georgia wins but doesn’t cover the large spread.
#1 Georgia 45
South Carolina 20
Bossman Slim: This one is getting a little upset love because of the history at stake and how much trouble Tennessee has had winning in The Swamp. They haven’t done it since the Black Eyed Peas had the number-one song in America and Second Hand Lions was crushing it at the box office. So where is the love for Tennessee? I’ll give it to’em. Tennessee is easily the better football team, but Florida is getting the benefit of the doubt because this one is in The Swamp at night, which no doubt plays a factor, but I’m sorry. This Vols offense is much better than Utah’s and the Utes smoked the Gators, albeit much of that was from Florida shooting themselves in the foot. Joe Milton has struggled a bit with the deep ball through two weeks, but I think he and this Vols offense get humming in Gainesville against a mediocre Florida defense. Give me the Volunteers to cover.
#11 Tennessee 31
Florida 23
Hammer: So I picked Florida to win this game before the season. I thought it would be Milton’s first real road test in a crazy environment that would get the best of them. Problem is, I also thought Florida would beat Utah. Instead, they looked completely inept. This game comes down to whether or not Florida can run the ball and limit the Vols run game. The Gators offensive line got completely stuffed into a locker by Utah so I’m interested to see if they can show improvement against a good Vol front. The Florida defense has played decent so far this year and they are going to need a massive effort from that side of the ball if they hope to win. This game is going to be close, and the Gators will look much better in the Swamp this week than they did against Utah in Week 1, but it won’t be enough. I can’t trust that offensive line and run game to get it going enough to keep Tenneessee’s offense off the field. Joe Milton has been good but not great so far and that will continue. He won’t do anything to lose this game for Tennessee but I’m not expecting a Heisman-like performance from him either. Florida will cover but Tennessee gets the dub.
#11 Tennessee 27
Florida 23
Waco Kid: Coach O loves to say the swamp is one of the harder stadiums to play in. While that may be true, most years, this year is different. Florida is just not a good team. They’re big and slow and anyone who has watched film knows they cannot run sideline to sideline with on-par competition. Not only is Tennessee on par but they are far superior with speed that kills. And against a team like the Gators who rely heavily on their size, this is a perfect scenario for the Vols. They should be able to outrun the defensive line and linebackers and blow the top off the defensive secondary. Josh Heupel's defense should also be able to get pressure on Graham Mertz because again while the UF line is massive they are so incredibly slow off the snap. Half the time defensive ends are in the backfield before the tackles can set their feet and engage. Even though this is a rivalry, I can see a blowout coming a mile away. This isn’t about beating the Vols, it’s about not getting embarrassed and rolling into the next week with some things to build on.
#11 Tennessee 38
Florida 21
Bossman Slim: This one will be fun because Ole Miss has seen a lot of these guys before. Georgia Tech is basically Texas A&M’s 2022 team. Haynes King is at QB, Chase Lane is at WR, and LB Andre White Jr. all transferred to Tech in the offseason. King has played a little better than he did at A&M, throwing 7 TDs to 1 INT, but the Yellow Jackets whiffed against Louisville in Week 1, giving up a big halftime lead and losing via mistakes in the second half. Ole Miss is the better team here by far, and I like the Rebels resiliency in Week 2 against Tulane who fought them to the bitter end. Georgia Tech will improve in the coming years under Brent Key, but they’ve got a ways to go. Give me Ole Miss to cover.
#17 Ole Miss 45
Georgia Tech 23
Hammer: I’ve seen Haynes King play enough football to know that he is not going to get a win in Oxford for Georgia Tech. The former Aggie QB has found a new home at Georgia Tech, and he’s looked good so far this year. Credit to him, but Ole Miss is the best team they’ve seen and King is historically bad on the road. I know Tulane’s stud QB didn't play last week, but this Rebel team has looked solid so far this year. Is that game much closer if Pratt plays for the Green Wave? Probably, but he didn't and the Rebs took care of business on the road. The run game with Judkins is struggling to find success as the offensive line has been suspect but Jaxson Dart looks the part. He has command of the offense and can slice up a defense if given time. After watching Georgia Tech take on Louisville in week one, I think their defense is vulnerable and Ole Miss will take advantage. Give me the Rebs to win and cover here.
#17 Ole Miss 43
Georgia Tech 24
Waco Kid: When Haynes King is your leading rusher against conference competition, you know there’s an issue. King has been spectacular through the air but he cannot do it all for the Georgia Tech offense. They need to establish a rush attack and fast. Although that may not be needed this week. Ole Miss likes to score fast, so the way GT plays could work to their benefit. Ole Miss is coming off a victory in a top 25 matchup but they did let Tulane hang around and instill worry for about three and a half quarters last week. The Green Wave were nationally ranked but here’s the kicker: their star quarterback was out last week and they had to deploy a backup. The fact that a backup at a program not known for depth was able to keep pace with the Rebs does not bode well for the SEC West squad. I think Kiffin pulls out another win but I don’t think it’s by a lot and I think this becomes a track race. Good thing is not many teams can run with Mississippi in those types of races. 18.5 seems like a high spread against a yellow jacket offense that seems to score easily. I have this coming down to the wire and Ole Miss taking it by 10.
#17 Ole Miss 42
Georgia Tech 32
Bossman Slim: Whatcha got, Arkansas? Last year a decent Hogs team took it to the Cougars in Provo, so let’s see if they’ve got an encore in them. I don’t know a whole lot about BYU but I do know their defense is no slouch. They haven’t played anyone worth a darn, so it’s tough to tell if that’s real or a mirage. I tend to think KJ Jefferson, Isaac TeSlaa, and Jaedon Wilson will show that it is in fact, a mirage. The Hogs will rely on AJ Green at running back again in Rocket Sanders absence. The Cougs are holding opposing teams to under 61 total yards on the ground. I expect the Hogs to blow past that number and for KJ Jefferson to have a big day. Give me the Razorbacks to cover in Fayetteville.
Arkansas 38
BYU 24
Hammer: Does anyone have a clue what to expect in this game? Neither team has played anyone with a pulse. Both teams have handled their business but have not always looked great in doing so. The Cougs only beat Sam Houston State 14-0 and Arkansas never really pulled away from Kent State last week. KJ Jefferson has looked good so far but his stats aren’t eye-popping. He’s been efficient and smart with the football but Arkansas wideouts are not getting separation consistently. It hasn’t been poor play from the receivers but against the competition, it would be nice to see more guys streaking open. Somehow Kedon Slovis is the QB for BYU this year so it's possible the Cougars get hot and throw the ball all over the yard, but that’s a long shot. In their two games, they haven't been able to run the ball well, which doesn’t bode well going against a disruptive Razorback front. Without knowing much about either team so far, I will lean Arkansas since they are at home and they mauled BYU last season in Provo. I think the Hogs have too many advantages, especially at QB to lose this one and I’ll take them to cover as well.
Arkansas 31
BYU 21
Waco Kid: This is actually turning into a really good matchup. Both teams have potential but neither has really capitalized on that so far into the season. BYU barely beat Sam Houston and Arkansas had a bit of trouble scoring early on against Kent State, going into the locker room at halftime up 14-6. Luckily the Razorback D shut everything down after halftime but KJ Jefferson was only able to lead his team to two scores in the second half. Kind of unacceptable against a team like Kent State but we will chalk it up to early-season cobwebs. I think this is an intriguing game that could go either way but since this is an SEC blog I’ve got to go with the conference in close games.
Arkansas 24
BYU 13