Biscuits & SEC Week 10 game-by-game previews 2024
No ranked-on-ranked matchups this week, but don’t sleep on Week 10.
By: Bossman, Hammer
We have arrived in November. The home stretch of the regular season, and there is still a ton to be settled on the field. With so many teams still in the hunt for the SEC title race like Texas A&M, Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, and LSU, as well as the new 12-team CFP field, we could be in for a wild final month of the season.
Last week, Bossman went unblemished in his straight-up picks, bringing him into a tie with Hammer for the lead. The Waco Kid went an impressive 5-1 ATS, extending his lead over the others and bringing his overall record back to .500. Should be a fun race to the finish for our picks, too.
Let’s dive in.
Bossman: There are a few reasons this game is only at a 6.5-point spread. Another one in Fayetteville at night, it’s not easy to win there unless you can turn the Hogs over, plus looking at the tale of the tape, this one could easily become an OK Corral shootout (that would have worked so much better if Matt Corral was still in Oxford). Ole Miss and Arkansas rank #1 and #2 in the SEC in yards per game and both are scoring over 30 points per game. The Hog faithful need to be loud and involved in this one for the Hogs to have a chance, as the Rebels are the worst in the SEC in penalties, averaging nearly nine a game. What gets me here is the Ole Miss defense. While the Arkansas offense is explosive, they still have that proclivity to fire their pistol at their foot before taking it out of the holster. I’m expecting Ole Miss, who has a +7 turnover margin on the season, to nab a few turnovers from the Razorbacks and to be pressuring Taylen Green all night along the defensive front. This is one of the best defensive fronts in the country, led by SEC sack leader Suntarine Perkins, Jared Ivey, Princely Umanmielen, Walter Nolen, and JJ Pegues. Give me the Rebels to cover.
#19 Ole Miss 28
Arkansas 19
Hammer: This is a tricky spot for Ole Miss. A road game in Fayetteville is never easy, plus the Rebels host #2 Georgia next week in Oxford. If they hadn’t already lost twice, I could see this being a letdown type of game. But the Rebel’s margin for error is gone. If they want to make the playoffs and accomplish any of their preseason goals, they have to win out so I expect them to be ready. I am very interested to see if Ole Miss can find something in the run game. Their offense has been average to below average by their own standards, and the biggest reason is that they can't run the ball in conference play. In their four SEC games this year, Ole Miss has run for an average of 120 yards per game but only averages 3.4 YPC. Under three yards per carry is not going to cut it, so I am interested to see if Ole Miss can find more running room on the ground. Jaxson Dart has been good this year, but he’s been under too much pressure and has been shouldering too much of the offensive load. If Ole Miss can’t run the ball, and they get behind the chains, this game will be really dicey. Arkansas can score, as we saw last week against Mississippi State, and they will be ready for an upset here. Ultimately, I am still skeptical of the Rebel offense, but I trust that defense. Pete Golding has something going on that side of the ball as Ole Miss has one of the best defenses in the SEC. I expect them to frustrate Taylen Green and limit the Arkansas ground game enough to get out of Fayettenam with a win.
#19 Ole Miss 27
Arkansas 17
Waco Kid:
#19 Ole Miss 34
Arkansas 21
Bossman: Can “Diego Stones” get another one in Jordan-Hare? We’ll see, but it’s not crazy to pick Vanderbilt in this spot like it has been in years past. The Commodores have given every team they’ve played this year a run for their money, taking down one titan of the sport and nearly clipping another one. Hugh Freeze has played Pavia twice at two different stops, so he knows what to expect. That could be helpful, or it may not matter and Pavia has that “it” factor that you can’t coach. In games like this, I think coaching matters a great deal, and right now, I’d say that Clark Lea is the better coach…still, this one being at Jordan-Hare, I like Auburn’s chances coming off their first SEC win. Freeze will have them hungry for their second one. I’ll take Vandy to cover, pushing Auburn to the wire, but in the end, the Tigers prevail by leaning on Jarquez Hunter for the second straight week.
Auburn 26
Vanderbilt 23
Hammer: “I’m sick of seeing that quarterback. I’ve had enough of him” - Hugh Freeze, jokingly discussing Diego Pavia, who beat him while he was at Liberty and last year at Auburn, in his weekly press conference. I don’t blame Freeze for that sentiment at all. Diego Pavia is a stone-cold killer who just competes his tail off every single week. He has elevated this Vandy program to a level I did not expect them to ever get back to. My question in this game will Vandy ever run out of gas? They almost took out Texas last week but came up just short. On the Auburn side, did they finally figure out how to win? And by how to win, I really mean will Freeze continue to feed Jarquez Hunter? If the Tigers continue to give Hunter the ball, they should be able to win this at home. He is averaging 7.2 YPC, but Freeze has only handed him the ball 120 times through 8 games. He should have 25 carries in this game if Freeze is smart. After his performance against Kentucky, I expect Hunter to get the ball a ton and I think he leads Auburn to a win here, but Vandy keeps it close and covers.
Auburn 27
Vanderbilt 21
Waco Kid:
Vanderbilt 31
Auburn 24
Bossman: Most people in their right mind are picking Georgia to cover this spread and get a nice win over an overmatched Florida team. Well, I’m not in my right mind, I guess. I loved what I saw from Georgia’s defense against Texas, and I think they have another great day, especially against a true freshman quarterback in DJ Lagway. However, the Gators are playing with some confidence right now and will be ready to play as they continue to play for Billy Napier’s job. I also have trouble trusting Georgia’s offense to cover a large spread like this. Carson Beck has been turnover-prone all season and this Bulldogs offense has had trouble kicking it into high gear in 2024. I expect a comfortable Georgia win, but I’ll take Florida to cover here.
#2 Georgia 35
Florida 21
Hammer: The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is usually one of the best games in college football. But since Kirby Smart took over in Athens, Florida has only managed one win. That trend is likely to continue. If Billy Napier wants to save his job, winning this game just might seal it. Lose embarrassingly, and he will almost certainly seal his fate of being fired for what feels like the third time this season. To Napier’s credit, the Gators have looked much better after their early season bye week, going 2-1 since then with big wins over UCF and Kentucky and an overtime loss on the road at Tennessee. The Gators have not given up, which I thought they might after a 1-2 start. But this is Georgia and they just beat then-ranked #1 Texas by two scores in Austin. The Dawgs defense is back healthy and looking like a really, really good unit now. The Dawgs offense needs to figure it out though. Carson Beck has looked very average so far this year and has been turning the ball over at a high clip. Florida could take advantage of Beck if he doesn’t start taking care of the ball, but otherwise, I have a hard time seeing Florida with true freshman DJ Lagway moving the ball that much. Trevor Etienne should also have a big game here as he goes against his former team. With the strength of the Georgia defense and the uncertainty of freshman QB DJ Lagway, I’ll take Georgia to win and cover here.
#2 Georgia 31
Florida 14
Waco Kid:
#2 Georgia 45
Florida 17
Bossman: Willy-B at night against a top-10 opponent? Games like this are what makes college football fun. The Aggies saunter into Columbia red-hot, winners of seven straight and riding high off of their second win against a top-10 team this season. Marel Reed played like a man possessed against LSU, and the Aggie run game was unstoppable in the second half. South Carolina is going to try and bottle that up with one of the best defensive lines in the country, led by Kyle Kinnard and Dylan Stewart. Even with that, Carolina has only seen one other QB like Reed the Steed, and that was Jalen Milroe, who they held to just 36 yards rushing on 18 carries. That’s pretty darn good, but I think Reed is a better runner. Even if Carolina is able to bottle him up, Mike Elko has shown he’s willing to make decisive in-game changes, and I could see him going back to Conner Weigman to give the Aggies a spark in the passing game. At the end of the day, the real matchup is this A&M defense against the Gamecocks offense. The Gamecocks have been pretty “meh” on offense this year, and that doesn’t give you much confidence going up against this Aggie defense, especially along the front. South Carolina is weak along the offensive line, giving up 4.5 sacks a game and nine TFLs. I think the Aggie linebackers and defensive line are salivating at those stats, and I expect them to be in the Gamecocks backfield all night. I’ll take the Aggies to win and cover, but it won’t be easy.
#10 Texas A&M 24
South Carolina 17
Hammer: The whole college football world has been praising Texas A&M since their emphatic victory over LSU last weekend. Kyle Field was on fire, and they outscored LSU 31-6 in the final 24 minutes of the game. Oh, and they only threw two passes that entire time. While everyone has been bowing down to A&M, South Carolina has been at home on the bye week, waiting for their chance. The chance to take down a top 10 team that is unbeaten in the SEC at home under the lights of Williams Brice. This is a tough spot for A&M. Playing at Williams-Brice at night is always a challenge, especially when the Gamecocks have a bye week before the game, and they have one of the best defensive lines in the country. That Gamecock defense is for real and will pose a real challenge for Aggie QB Marcel Reed. However, the Aggies also have one of the best defensive lines in the country and will really challenge LaNorris Sellers and the South Carolina offense. Unless South Carolina can force multiple turnovers and find ways to score that don’t involve their offense, they won’t score enough to win here. Their offense is just not good enough, especially when facing a defense like Texas A&M. South Carolina will not be able to manufacture more than one, maybe two drives in this game. So if they want to score 20+ points, they need to turn A&M over multiple times. So far, Marcel Reed has not turned the ball over. An environment like Williams Brice could cause the young QB to be more careless with the ball, but I’ll believe it when I see it. This game should be a tough, physical, defensive battle and so far, A&M has been winning those ball games with the exception of week one against Notre Dame. Give me the Aggies to escape South Carolina with a close win.
#10 Texas A&M 20
South Carolina 16
Waco Kid:
#10 Texas A&M 24
South Carolina 10
Bossman: Do I have to write this preview? Since Kentucky gave Georgia a run for their money and topped then #6 Ole Miss, it’s been a steady decline. I mean truly, what is going on in Lexington? Kentucky could hang their hat on their defense early this season, but that apparently was smoke and mirrors, as the Wildcats gave up 48 to Florida and over 230 yards rushing to Jarquez Hunter in a loss to Auburn last week. The offense has been a mess, averaging just 19 points per game, good for dead last in the SEC. It’s the second straight year that a transfer QB experiment hasn’t worked out. Tennessee is a top-10 team, but they’ve dealt with struggles of their own. With this defense, however, I expect the Vols to romp. I’ll take Tennessee to win and cover at home.
#7 Tennessee 28
Kentucky 10
Hammer: Kentucky looks like they have quit to me. Mark Stoops is talking like a madman in his press conferences, and with the exception of the Ole Miss and Georgia games, Kentucky has been abysmal in conference play. Their offense is totally lost, and their defense is fading as the season goes on. That happens when you have an offense that can’t get yards game after game after game. The defense gives up and that appears to be the case in Lexington. I hope I’m wrong. As for Tennessee, they are coming off a bye to play a team at home at night that they do not like at all. If the Vols get off to a fast start, this will get ugly. I trust the Vol’s defense to dominate Kentucky here and if there was ever a game to take the training wheels off of Nico, it’s this one. Kentucky won’t be able to score, so Heupel can take some chances here and let Nico get a little risky. I like Tennessee big in this one.
#7 Tennessee 34
Kentucky 13
Waco Kid:
#7 Tennessee 38
Kentucky 21
Other Games on the Schedule:
Oklahoma (4-4) vs. Maine (4-4)
Mississippi State (1-7) vs. UMass (2-6)
