B&S Week 10 game-by-game previews
We find out who the contenders and the pretenders are. Remember November.
By: The Waco Kid, The Hammer, Bossman Slim
It’s going to be an electric atmosphere at Sanford Stadium. Photo via Scott Cunningham, Getty Images
Week 10? Man, where has the time gone? November has arrived and we are in the home stretch of the college football season. This weekend features two huge matchups for both SEC championship and CFP playoff implications with Tennessee playing at Georgia and Alabama traveling to Baton Rouge.
The Hammer came storming back last week going 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread. Bossman has been leading the straight-up picks most of the year, but his lead is dwindling after last weekend. The race for best picker against the spread is close and still anyone’s game. As coaches always say, they remember November. So will we at Biscuits & SEC. The guy who makes the most moves in November will come out on top in the season-long pick 'em. We’ve got some fantastic games across the SEC this weekend, so let's get to those previews.
Kentucky at Missouri - 12:00 ET on SEC Network (Kentucky -2.5)
Bossman Slim: Fans outside of the Bluegrass State and Show Me State might sleep through this one. Not me, I’m looking forward to it. This is a pecking-order game. Is Kentucky regressing while Mizzou is (ever so slightly) moving up? This season hasn’t turned out how the Wildcats had hoped. It hasn’t for Missouri either, but there’s still much to play for. These teams are about as evenly matched as you can get. Both defenses give up close to the same amount of PPG. Both offenses score a similar amount of PPG. I think the difference here is turnovers, run defense, and sacks. Kentucky is turnover prone, and you can bet on it that Will Levis will throw at least one pick. Mizzou is -2 in TO margin on the year while Kentucky is -7. Kentucky’s offensive line is also porous, giving up 30 sacks on the year. Mizzou has 17 sacks on the year and I expect them to be in the backfield all day, which should help force a couple of those turnovers. Mizzou has a solid defense this year, and give up just 115 yards per game on the ground, which I think will help them bottle up Chris Rodriguez. Kentucky has a solid defense too, but in the end, I give Mizzou a slight edge.
Missouri 27
Kentucky 24
The Hammer: Don’t sleep on Missouri here. The Tigers have quietly played well so far in 2022 and with the exception of the loss at Kansas State, have kept games close, hence the betting line being less than a FG. I’m torn here. Both defenses are really good and both offenses are pretty weak. In fact, these teams are nearly identical on both sides of the ball statistically. The Wildcats and Tigers both average 23.9 points per game on offense. Kentucky allows opponents to score an average of 19.9 points per game, while Missouri’s defense gives up an average of 21.5. If things get sideways early for Kentucky, and they turn the ball over, Mizzou can win this game. But when I look at the QB and RB positions, I think Kentucky has an edge and I trust Mark Stoops. The Wildcats really let me down last week as I thought they would cover against Tennessee, but I like them to eek out a close win here. This is a big bounce-back spot for Stoops and his team. They can’t lose this one or the season could really get sideways, especially with a showdown against Georgia still looming.
Kentucky 20
Missouri 17
The Waco Kid: My fellow B&S bloggers believe this may be a close game and Mizzou could perhaps come out on top. To that I say malarkey. It does not matter how big of a slump Kentucky is in, there will always be a rut buster. And Mizzou is going to bust the Wildcats' rut. Will Levis has not turned out to be the God-given savior UK believed him to be at the beginning of the season, but he’s no chump. He can still ball and given the chance can drop a 40-pounder on you. I think Mizzou gives him that luxury this weekend. The Tigers will have to game plan to stop Chris Rodriguez in the backfield which will open up things downfield for Levis and the air attack. I still expect Rodriguez to be productive running the ball against a stout Missouri defensive line, mainly because the kid is electric with the rock. UM has played well defensively all year but the Wildcat offense will score throughout the game and I do not think that Brady Cook and Luther Burden can, pound for pound, match Levis and CRod. For this reason, I have to pick the Lexington Blue by a sizable margin. They will definitely cover and I see them winning by at least 14.
Kentucky 34
Missouri 20
Florida at Texas A&M - 12:00 ET on ESPN (A&M -3.5)
Bossman Slim: Both of these teams are down on their luck this year. Florida sits at 4-4 and A&M is at 3-5. Not what was expected out of both of these programs going into this season, especially A&M who was ranked preseason #6. It’s up in the air whether or not Connor Weigman starts for the Aggies today. If he doesn’t, I think this line is right on. If he does, I think A&M covers. Weigman looked sharp in his first start last week against Ole Miss. Both of these defenses have shown they can be gashed in the run game. The matchup to watch here is that A&M defense against the scrambling ability of Anthony Richardson. A&M got burned for 95 yards and multiple 3rd and long conversions last week by Jaxson Dart. Anthony Richardson is more lethal than dart when a play breaks down - can A&M figure out how to stop that? If not, Richardson will run all over them. A&M will also look to establish the run with Devon Achane and I expect a big day out of #6. This one is a coinflip to me, but I’m changing my pick from our podcast taping with Steven Willis. I’ll take Florida in a close one. I don’t think Weigman will start and I don’t think A&M will be able to contain the scrambling ability of Richardson.
Florida 31
Texas A&M 27
The Hammer: The Aggies are due for a win right? I mean, things have been going so poorly in College Station this year that at some point it has to turn, right? The Aggies are too talented to continue losing these close games. With the exception of Mississippi State, all of A&M’s losses have been by one score or less. They’ve been right there so often but cannot make the plays when needed to actually win. True freshman Connor Weigman looked excellent at QB last week against Ole Miss, and the Florida defense is vulnerable, allowing opponents to score 29.9 points a game. If Weigman and the A&M offense can build on that momentum from a week ago, the Aggies will win here. Do not sleep on Florida though, as the Gator’s offense is a step above the Aggies and they can run the ball, which just so happens to be A&M’s weak spot defensively. Texas A&M is allowing over 200 rush yards a game to their opponents so far in 2022. To me, that is the Mendoza line for this game. If A&M limits Florida to less than 200 yards rushing, I don’t trust Anthony Richardson to do enough in the passing game for the Gators to win. I’ll take the Aggies here in a close one.
Texas A&M 31
Florida 27
The Waco Kid: This game was a hype game going into the season. These were two teams who had an outside shot to compete for a conference championship. Now it seems as though both are competing merely for an invite to a postseason game. Texas A&M’s most likely being the Texas Bowl and Florida’s sight set on a Gator Bowl invite. I do not think there is much more to gain for either team in this one. Still, I think this is going to be one helluva game. Anthony Richardson leads the Gators into Kyle Field in hopes of doing just enough to topple true freshman QB Connor Weigman and an Aggie offense that finally scored some points last week. This year, home-field advantage matters a great deal and the matchup between these two will be decided by that advantage rather than who the best team is. If the game was being played in Gainesville, at the Swamp, I would be giving Florida a slight edge but since it will be played in College Station, surrounded by 100,000+ fans that are grasping at a chance to believe in Jimbo and the team, I have the game swinging in the way of the Fightin’ Texas Ags. Fisher will need to get the offense rolling by doing the one thing that is proven to move the chains, handing the ball off to Devon Achane. Once the run is established and Weigman is comfortable against that big UF defensive line, then start allowing him to make throws and take his time in the pocket. It is key to establish Achane first though if they have any shot. On the defensive side, the Aggies need to pressure Richardson and force him to throw the ball in places he does not want to, oh and of course, keep contain so he cannot scramble for 20 yards a play like Ole Miss was able to do. If the Maroon and White accomplish these things, they will find themselves one win closer to the Texas Bowl.
Texas A&M 34
Florida 27
#2 Tennessee at #1 Georgia - 3:30 ET on CBS (UGA -8)
Bossman Slim: This is a “grandaddy of them all” game. It’s hard to top Alabama-Tennessee from this year, but this game might do just that. It’s the #1 defense in the SEC vs. the #1 offense in the country. The #2 offense in the SEC vs. the #10 defense in the SEC. Here’s one thing you can be certain of: these two teams are going to score points. Lots of them. Tennessee torched Alabama for 52 points a few weeks ago, and Alabama boasts the #2 defense in the SEC. They will get theirs today. I expect Georgia to slow this game down and take a few shots. They want to sustain drives - 8, 10, and 12-play drives that end in touchdowns. That will spell their defense and keep the Tennessee offense off the field. I also look at mentality and pedigree. Georgia has been here before. They are battle tested and know how to win in big games. That matters. Tennessee is the new kid on the block and that mentality and killer instinct is still settling in. Maybe they develop that killer instinct today, but with this one being Between the Hedges, give me Georgia.
#1 Georgia 44
#2 Tennessee 41
The Hammer: The only thing that could possibly make this matchup any more exciting is if Keith Jackson or ole Uncle Verne was on the call. Aside from that, this game has everything. SEC championship, CFP, national title, and Heisman implications are all on the line in Athens, GA. The Dawgs are defending champs and are unbeaten. Tennessee has risen from the ashes of despair and is currently ranked #1 in the country in the CFP. I think Tennessee can compete with any team in the country and deserves their number on rankings, but the fact that the Vols are ranked #1 plays right into Kirby’s hands. He will have the Dawgs absolutely salivating coming into this one and I expect Georgia to play with their hair on fire. I’m taking the Dawgs here for a few reasons. First, it’s in Athens. Tennessee has beaten Pitt and LSU on the road but their biggest wins against Bama and Kentucky were at night in Neyland Stadium. Plus, the LSU game was at 11 am. The Vols have not played in this kind of environment yet and Sanford Stadium will be bursting at the seams. Second, I don’t think Tennessee has played a defense like Georgia’s. I still expect Tennessee to score, no defense can fully stop Hendon Hooker and company but I do think the Dawgs will limit the Vols ground attack. Tennessee quietly averages 199 yards rushing per game, and their ground game is vital to setting up mismatches on the back end for their talented wideouts to hit big, explosive plays. Without a strong running game, I don’t see Tennessee scoring 52 here like they did against Alabama. On the Georgia side, they’ve been here before. They know what to expect in big games and Tennessee is still the new kid on the block. I expect Todd Monken to have a great game plan here and to utilize all the offensive weapons he has at his disposal. Stetson “Tombstone” Bennett will bury another team when it's all said and done and the Vols headstone will be laid Between the Hedges.
#1 Georgia 41
#2 Tennessee 38
The Waco Kid: Second game of the year that Tennessee will be playing in and this may be the most important. The Vols have already knocked off Alabama and the only team that stands between them and Atlanta, as well as a rematch with the Tide, is the Georgia Bulldogs. And it will be no easy task to walk out of Athens with another SEC victory. While the Vols came in as #1 on the first CFP rankings, the Dawgs are still the top team in the nation. Until you beat the best you can’t consider yourself the best. The CFP committee just lucked out because they know that the rankings will resolve themselves this weekend after the fourth quarter ends. It was almost in their best interest to pick UT over UGA because if somehow they can find a way to win in Georgia, it will make the committee look like a bunch of geniuses rather than a bunch of nerds that can crunch numbers but have never played football in their lives. Hendon Hooker and Jalin Hyatt have been unstoppable these past few weeks but have not played a defensive unit nearly as good as Kirby Smart’s. I think it will be a tough hill to climb and while competing against that top defense, they will also need to stop Stetson Bennett and the duo of trios that Georgia has on offense. Those being the Tight Ends and Running backs, both of which have depth charts deeper and better than any other program in the nation. Brock Bowers and Darnell Washington will cut through the Athens air and give the Vols secondary fits all afternoon, while the stable of running backs will keep the backers close to the line in hopes of slowing down the ground game. It’s a lose-lose for that Orange and White defense and the only shot at a win is to put up unheard-of numbers against the Red and Black. Until Georgia falls, they own the throne.
#1 Georgia 56
#2 Tennessee 42
#23 Liberty at Arkansas - 4:00 ET on SEC Network (Arkansas -14)
Bossman Slim: Liberty is known for their offense under Hugh Freeze and this year they’re putting another quality product on the field averaging 420 yards per game and nearly 236 yards a game through the air and putting up 30ppg. That is behind their production from last year when they put up 33ppg and averaged about 15 more total yards per game. I don’t think 30 points is going to be enough to keep up with this Arkansas offense, which ranks 13th in the nation and has 52 and 41 points respectively in their last two games since KJ Jefferson has been back. With KJ, this offense runs in a different gear. I like the Razorbacks in this one by two scores. I misspoke on the Locked on Ole Miss podcast - I don’t think it will be that close. Vegas has this one right.
Arkansas 45
Liberty 31
The Hammer: Hugh Freeze back in the SEC? Well, for this week anyway. Freeze and his Liberty Flames are sitting at 7-1 right now. They just win so far under Freeze. However, they have not faced a running attack like the Razorbacks yet, and I expect KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders to feast on the ground. The Hogs are too physical for Liberty to keep up for 4 quarters. I could see this one being close at half but look for Arkansas to pull away as the game goes on.
Arkansas 42
Liberty 24
The Waco Kid: Since Freeze’s departure from the SEC and taking over at Liberty, the former Ole Miss coach has made it a priority to stay in the spotlight in the most coveted conference in the nation. Could he be vying for a new job by constantly staying in the minds of the ADs around the conference? Possibly. Could he just be trying to prove that he can still coach with the best of them even given lesser talent? This is the most likely scenario, and year after year he continues to have the Flames in the top 25 at one point during the season. This year LU just happened to join the upper echelon of football right in time to be taken down a peg by an underrated Arkansas team. It would make more sense if the Razorbacks were the ranked team in this matchup but a 3 game-losing streak left a blemish on an otherwise pretty good season by Sam Pittman and the boys. I say it every week but KJ Jefferson and Raheim Sanders have this offense moving the ball and controlling the time of possession which is essential to any winning team. Arkansas is not the same team that lost three matchups earlier in the year and Liberty won’t be the team to slow down their forward momentum. The backfield duo should easily score 35 points between the two of them alone to the tune of over 300 yards. I like U of Ark in this one and I like’em by 20+.
Arkansas 45
Liberty 17
#6 Alabama at #15 LSU - 7:00 ET on ESPN (Alabama -13)
Bossman Slim: Another MASSIVE game. Saturday is just going to be perfect. Wall-to-wall big games in the SEC. It just means more. If you look at the CFP rankings, this is a top-10 matchup. LSU has been on a tear since getting blown out by Tennessee, posting 45 points in their last two games and all of the sudden finding their passing game. In the last two games, Jayden Daniels is averaging 298.5 yards, 2.5 TDs, and an 89 QBR. Through six weeks, the passing attack looked nothing like this. On the flip side, Daniels has been sacked 25 times this year. Alabama has 23 sacks on the year. I expect the Tide to bring pressure and get home a few times and affect Daniels enough to keep the passing attack in check. Daniels will get a few good scrambles in, but I don’t think LSU will have the same success through the air that they’ve had in the previous two weeks. I think Bama will have a solid day through the air and Bryce Young to have a big day. This one is in Death Valley at night though, and Bama has had some trouble on the road this year. LSU covers, barely, but Bama walks out with a win.
#6 Alabama 38
#15 LSU 27
The Hammer: Whoaaa nelly! Alabama on the road at LSU to determine first place in the SEC West? Feels like old times. Like everyone, I’ve been impressed with LSU in Brian Kelly’s first year. The Tigers started the season a little sluggish but have really hit their stride in recent weeks, as Jayden Daniels has been paying lights out lately. If Alabama still hasn't gotten over their penalty and road woes in general, this game will be really close and LSU could certainly win. They have the talent in the defensive front seven to pressure Bryce Young and give the Tide offense fits. My issue with this LSU team matching up against Alabama is the lack of a threat at running back. Jayden Daniels remains LSU’s leading rusher by over 200 yards, and Daniels has 113 rushing attempts with the next closest runner only getting 66. The entire offense goes through Jayden Daniels, and as talented as he is, that is not a good recipe against Nick Saban and an Alabama defense. I think the Tide will find ways to take away Daniels rushing and force him to beat them down the field, or force an LSU running back to make plays. Will Anderson and Dallas Turner should have the edge here in the pass rush so as long as Alabama does a good job spying Daniels when the play breaks down, he could be in for a long night. I won’t be shocked if LSU wins this one given how much Bama has struggled on the road lately, but I’m not betting on Alabama to lose two regular season games. It almost never happens.
#6 Alabama 41
#15 LSU 27
The Waco Kid: LSU has been on a roll lately but is highly over ranked for what they really are; a middle-of-the-pack West team that just so happens to have pulled off some wins at the perfect time. If you look back four weeks ago, the prediction for this game would be Bama by a country mile. The Tide have one loss on the season to #1 ranked Tennessee and most likely will finish the regular season that way. They will once again be playing in Atlanta for the SEC crown the only question becomes whether it will be a rematch against Tennessee or another showdown with Kirby Smart and the Dawgs. We will learn a lot on Saturday about the state of the conference. As for this game, Saban blows out LSU and sends them back down the Brian Kelly rabbit hole of overhyped and overrated teams where they can live in infamy with the likes of multiple Notre Dame teams. Bryce Young will put up a Heisman performance in this top-tier rivalry game and Jamyr Gibbs will be nearly impossible to stop in the run game. This will become a welcome-to-the-SEC moment for Jayden Daniels, who has had recent success as QB1 for the Tigers but will be facing a Saban defense that hardly ever bends in rivalry games. Happy late birthday Saban and RTR!!
#6 Alabama 52
#15 LSU 34
Auburn at Mississippi State - 7:30 ET on ESPN2 (Miss St -12)
Bossman Slim: This season hasn’t gone the way either team hoped. Auburn is spiraling after the firing of Bryan Harsin. Tigers legend Cadillac Williams takes over as the interim head coach, but who knows who is calling plays? Who is coaching multiple position groups after many of Harsin’s assistants were also let go? For Mississippi State, they’ve lost two straight and can’t afford to drop this one. Auburn likely will try to run the ball a lot and rely on Tank Bigsby, but I like that matchup for Mississippi State. Auburn has a decent pass defense, so they could give State some issues, but I don’t see it happening. I like the steady presence of Will Rogers to get the win for the Bulldogs, especially with this one being in Starkville.
Mississippi State 37
Auburn 24
The Hammer: Well, the Harsin era ended earlier this week and we have now entered the Cadillac Willaims era at Auburn. It’s also worth noting that Harsin was not the only coach who was fired, several other staffers were also let go. I’m not even sure who is going to be calling plays for the Auburn offense. To make matters worse, several Auburn players entered the transfer portal after Harsin was cut loose so long story short, Auburn is living on a prayer. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is coming off a bye week and is back home under the lights following two straight tough road losses to Kentucky and Alabama. This is a perfect bounce-back spot for the Bulldogs and I think they roll Auburn. I’m expecting an inspired start from Auburn as the team will be ready to play hard for Cadillac Willaims, but once the adrenaline wears off and it's time to play a full 60 minutes, the Tigers do not have what it takes. I’ll take Mississippi State big here.
Mississippi State 42
Auburn 17
The Waco Kid: A new coach, a struggling team, and an away matchup against an SEC West opponent, what could go wrong for Auburn? The answer is a lot. While Tank Bigsby has found his mojo, Auburn is still a bad team that has not found its identity on offense or defense this season. On top of that, the Tigers fired head coach Bryan Harsin after a disappointing first two seasons on the Plains. Who could have ever seen that coming? A coach whose pedigree was built at Boise State being fired from a perennial SEC powerhouse. Oh, wait we saw that coming a mile and two seasons away. Sure, Harsin may have been dealt a crap hand with the team he inherited but good coaches find a way to win with the talent they have at their disposal. Take fellow new SEC coach Josh Heupel as an example. He turned the Tennessee Volunteers from a middle-of-the-pack, underachieving East program to the number 1 team in the nation with recruits he inherited upon his entrance at UT. There’s no excuse for a coach to fall short when given the advantages a school like Auburn offers. Still, the Tigers find themselves in a peculiar place, being led by a new coach into Starkville against a struggling Mississippi State team. We have found that if the Bulldog offense struggles it is hard for this team to put together wins. Cadillac Williams was an all-time great running back for Auburn and I see him resorting back to the run and Tank Bigsby in this game. If he is successful in this approach I believe that AU may come out looking like a different team and shell-shock Mike Leach. Look for this game to be won between the tackles and if it comes down to that there is no better guy to rely on than Tank. It may be the optimist in me but I am taking Auburn by 6 in the hopes Williams can bring back some hope and winning to his alma mater.
Auburn 32
Mississippi State 26
South Carolina at Vanderbilt - 7:30 ET on SEC Network (USC -7)
Bossman Slim: Looking at the games in the preseason, I had this one circled for Vanderbilt. This one might be the one they get over the hump. I don’t trust South Carolina’s offense as far as I can throw a stone. I shouldn’t trust Vanderbilt’s offense or defense either, as they rank dead last in both categories in the SEC. However, I like the development of AJ Swann and this Vanderbilt team is improving, nearly knocking off Mizzou on the road when we last saw them. If this was a night game in Williams-Brice I would probably go with the ‘Cocks. But it’s not, it’s in the friendly, cold, silent but echoing FirstBank Stadium. Give me the ‘Dores!
Vanderbilt 27
South Carolina 24
The Hammer: Can Vandy get their first SEC win of the Clark Lea era? I say yes. Anchor down, baby! The Commodores are improved this year as we’ve said each week and they are due for an SEC win. What better time to get one than this weekend at night in front of their home crowd? Hopefully, some fans actually show up because this should be a fun game. The key for Vandy here is to take care of business on special teams and take care of the ball. South Carolina’s offense is so bad that unless they score on special teams or get a short-field score from a turnover, they can hardly score. Vanderbilt is also coming off a bye week and just watched Mizzou soundly defeat South Carolina by 13 points, whereas Vandy just lost on the road to Mizzou by 3. I like Vandy to cover and pull an outright upset here.
Vanderbilt 20
South Carolina 17
The Waco Kid: This may be the only chance at a conference win for Vanderbilt. If they were going to be able to topple any other teams from the SEC, it was going to have to be Mizzou or South Carolina. Unfortunately, they already blew their shot to beat the Tigers so the remaining hope for the season is that South Carolina comes out sluggish and the Commodores can keep it close until the end of the game when they move into striking position. I would love to sit here and say I have total faith in Lea and his team to get it done on Saturday but I just can’t. No matter how bad Spencer Rattler plays for the Gamecocks or how many times he turns the ball over, SC just has too many good athletes for Vandy to compete with. Saying that I do think it will turn out to be a “good” game meaning it will be close and Rattler will mishandle the ball at least twice. Expect a heavy dose of MarShawn Lloyd and the time of possession to drastically swing in the ‘Cocks favor. Another game with little to nothing but pride on the line, however, pride can lead teams into the next season with belief that they can turn things around. Shane Beamer and the boys by 24.
South Carolina 41
Vanderbilt 17