Biscuits & SEC Week 6 game-by-game previews 2024
A top 25 showdown in Kyle Field, plus the Hogs are in wounded animal mode against the Vols.
By: Bossman, Hammer, Waco Kid
It’s hard to believe, but we are already through the first month of the season and squarely into the meat conference play now. Week 5 delivered some spectacular games with every game other than Texas vs Mississippi State coming down to the wire. That’s why we love the SEC. With October arriving, it’s time to separate the men from the boys. The contenders from the pretenders.
If you missed our inaugural Biscuits & SEC LIVE show, you can catch it here, and be sure to check out our analysis on SEC After Dark.
Week 6 has some really interesting games, but if you trust Vegas, not many will be close. Only two games have a spread under 9.5 points. But keep in mind, college football has a knack for bringing pure chaos when you least expect it…Could some teams suffer the same fate as Ole Miss this past weekend? Do not sleep on this weekend’s slate.
Let’s dive in.
Bossman: The #25 Aggies being a 2.5-point favorite against a top-10 team at home is a bit surprising. When you dig a little deeper into this game, you realize that Mizzou is hanging onto that top 10 ranking by a thread. The Tigers began the year ranked #11, and while they’re 4-0 entering Week 6, they haven’t been very impressive. In Week 3 they beat Boston College at home by a touchdown and needed double overtime in Week 4 to put away Vanderbilt. This team returns a ton of production from last year’s team, but they lost some key pieces on defense and Brady Cook seems to have slightly regressed. He could get it together as the season goes on, but it hasn’t been as explosive as last season, potentially because of a flimsy offensive line. I think the Aggies will be able to get home in the Tigers backfield many times. However, it looks like it’s Marcel Reed again at QB for the Aggies, and this is easily the best defense he has faced thus far. I’m taking Mizzou in another close one, especially with the early 11:00 AM local time kickoff.
#9 Mizzou 28
#25 Texas A&M 23
Hammer: Another week, another A&M game that I don’t have a great feel for. Throw Mizzou into that group of teams that I still don’t feel for. The Tigers are unbeaten and in the top 10, but their best wins are against Vanderbilt and Boston College, and both were tight games. Texas A&M is far more tested. They have beaten Arkansas on a neutral field, beaten Florida in The Swamp, and lost closely to Notre Dame in week one. Missouri hasn't even left Columbia, MO yet. Luckily for the Tigers, they are coming off a bye week so they’ve had plenty of time to prepare for the Aggies and a road trip to Kyle Field. I am not ready to believe in the Tigers, though. Brady Cook appears to have regressed so far this year and he will need to be big in this one for Mizzou to win. I expect A&M’s defense to limit the Tigers run game, and generate pressure on Cook frequently. On the other side, Mizzou currently has the #3 total defense in the FBS, however, A&M will present their toughest challenge to date. The Aggies offense is far from elite, but they have a good offensive line, more athletes than anyone Mizzou has faced, and so far they haven't had turnover issues. If A&M can take care of the ball like they have been, I like them to win a close one. An X-factor here is Mizzou’s kicker, Blake Craig, who is 11/16 so far on the year, including three missed FGs against Vandy. In what I expect to be a close game where points are at a premium, a kicker who has missed five times in four games kicking in Kyle Field doesn’t sound like a recipe for success to me. I’ll take the Aggies to win and cover.
#25 Texas A&M 27
#9 Missouri 23
The Waco Kid: Mizzou has a solid defense but A&M has a dual-threat QB that could cause some issues for the Tigers. I think this will be a close game but ultimately the Ags can score a lot easier than anything Missouri has shown on the field. A&M pulls it out in an ugly game that will probably feature more field goals than touchdowns. Aggies by 7.
#25 Texas A&M 24
#9 Missouri 17
Bossman: Can Auburn give the Dawgs a scare like they did last year in Jordan-Hare? Not this year. Auburn is in a spiral and can’t figure out who to play at QB or how to win a game. Georgia is coming off a deflating loss to Alabama, but this is Kirby Smart. He’ll have the Dawgs out for blood. The Georgia defense got embarrassed by Jalen Milroe, Ryan Williams, and the Tide last week, but Auburn is nowhere near the explosive threat that Alabama is. Sure, they have KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Malcolm Simmons, Cam Coleman, etc…but who is getting them the ball consistently? No one. And Jarquez Hunter can’t carry the load all by himself. Payton Thorne’s success rate under pressure is a paltry 18%, so expect the Dawgs to bring the heat all night. I’m thinking UGA bounces back in a big way here Between the Hedges, gets a couple of turnovers, and takes Auburn behind the woodshed. While Auburn fans expect a loss, a blowout will only heat up Hugh Freeze’s seat.
#5 Georgia 41
Auburn 16
Hammer: Maybe this is the week Hugh Freeze pulls a rabbit out of his rear end and wins a game no one expects. Auburn nearly beat Georgia last year, after all. Crazier things have happened, but I’m not feeling that crazy this week. Georgia’s defense got torched last week by Alabama, so I guarantee this week of practice hasn’t been fun in Athens. Auburn’s offense remains terrible so I don’t see them scoring much here. I am a little worried about the Georgia offense, but maybe they found something in the second half against Alabama? I’m not convinced given how far ahead Alabama was by that point so I’m not banking on a big day against a solid Auburn defense. However, I refuse to trust the Auburn offense on the road against Georgia. Dawgs cover.
Georgia 35
Auburn 10
The Waco Kid: Auburn may take the cake for being the worst team in the SEC. Georgia coming off a loss at Bryant-Denny and having something to prove makes this even more frightening for Tiger fans. Hugh Freeze has some work to do with this team and it won’t be against Kirby Smart and the Dawgs. To put this lightly, they are going to destroy Auburn and all hopes a dreams for the season. But as a true Aggie, there’s always next year.
#5 Georgia 42
Auburn 16
Bossman: I like to think that last week was an aberration in Oxford, but how can we be sure? We’ll find out quickly. A trip into the ‘Cocks Den of Williams-Brice Stadium is not a friendly environment to try and get your sea legs back. Not to mention, this South Carolina team is pesky. Also, how about Juice Wells returning to Columbia? You can bet the man former Carolina teammates referred to as “Judas Wells” will get a hearty chorus of boos the first time he touches the ball. The fascinating part of this game is both defenses. We know about Rebels explosive offense (though they were AWOL against Kentucky), but they also boast one of the SEC’s best defenses. It’ll be a real test for LaNorris Sellers if he’s healthy enough to go. As for South Carolina’s defense, they don’t mess around either. They don’t give up many explosive plays and they keep things in front of them. That defensive line is also no joke, and I expect a big day from Dylan Stewart and/or Kyle Kennard. In the end, though, I’m leaning on the experience of Jaxson Dart and the weapons at his disposal. I think they bounce back here and get a tight win. SC covers but Ole Miss gets back on track.
#12 Ole Miss 31
South Carolina 26
Hammer: Oh boy. Ole Miss lost a stunner last week against Kentucky and then has to turn around a play on the road at Williams-Brice? Not ideal. Ole Miss needs to win this game, though. The Lane Train hype coming into this year was that this was the best Ole Miss team since…maybe ever? Archie Manning? Y’all know what I mean. Hope was sky high in Oxford and Kentucky was chalked up as an automatic win. This team was supposed to compete for the SEC title and expected to make the CFP. All that is on thin ice now and they need to rebound. South Carolina is an enigma, on the other hand. If not for a questionable call against LSU, they are a 4-0 team. I still question a ton about the Gamecocks, but Shane Beamer has those guys playing good football for the most part. It’s impressive. Coming off a bye, they are going to give Ole Miss their best shot and I am expecting a dogfight. It seems like LaNorris Sellers will return from injury, but still may not be 100%. The Gamecock defensive line is the key in this one. Kentucky absolutely whipped the Ole Miss offensive line last week, and South Carolina can do that too. Jaxson Dart will need to play really well in this one to win and I’m counting on him to do just that. Despite the loss last week, I liked what I saw from the Rebel’s defense outside of penalties so I think they’ll hold South Carolina in check. I expect the Rebs to play a cleaner game and get out of there with a close win and cover.
#12 Ole Miss 31
South Carolina 21
The Waco Kid: Shane Beamer vs Lane Kiffin, two of the best in the SEC. Maybe Beamer’s mentality has not translated to wins on the field but the dude is good. At the end of his tenure, you will see his name up in the stands near the likes of Lou Holtz. And I hold Holtz in a very high regard for what he did for the Gamecocks. You’ve got the defensive line in place but that will not keep the Rebs from scoring at will. Mississippi will blow this one out of the water, and same as UGA they are out for blood. They will drain that blood and leave nothing left for SC. Ole Miss by 21.
#12 Ole Miss 42
South Carolina 21
Bossman: Could the Tide overlook Vandy ahead of their showdown with might South Carolina? Just kidding. And that’s no shade to the Gamecocks, I’m just messing around – but we all know Bama should roll. Yeah yeah, Diego Pavia is a great story and he’s valiantly put the Commodores team on his back in close losses and that Week 1 upset win over Virginia Tech. But this is Alabama, the same one that just put up 41 on Georgia’s defense. The Georgia defense that didn’t allow a touchdown before that game. So…You’re saying there’s a chance? No, I am not. Duck and cover, Commodores. The cannons are broadside. Bombs away, Bama covers easily in Nashville. Wish I was gonna be there to tear up Kid Rock’s bar with the Tide faithful. Roll Tide big.
#1 Alabama 45
Vanderbilt 13
Hammer: Possible let down coming for Bama? If there ever was a spot for it, this is the week. A sleepy afternoon roadtrip to Nashville to play an improved Vandy team, who is coming off a bye, after one of the biggest games of the entire season against Georgia last week. Part of me really wants to say Vandy covers this, but I just can’t. Jalen Milroe and Alabama’s receivers are too dynamic. The Commodore defense will be overwhelmed. It’s possible Deigo Pavia makes some plays and keeps this close for a while, but over four quarters Vandy won’t be able to keep pace.
#1 Alabama 38
Vanderbilt 14
The Waco Kid: This one might surprise some fans but with Diego Pavia at the helm for the ‘Dores anything is possible. Very reminiscent of Johnny Football’s glory days in College Station. Pavia has the same tricks up his sleeves and could be an issue for a Tide team that historically has not been great against running quarterbacks. I think the crimson and white pull it out but it’ll be a ten-point game where no one is overly comfortable with any lead.
#1 Alabama 34
Vanderbilt 24
Bossman: This one being in Fayetteville gives me some hope that the Hogs can pull off the massive upset. What I’m worried about however is that Razorback’s proclivity to shoot themselves in the foot. Arkansas is averaging over eight penalties a game for an average of 55 yards, and they keep turning the ball over at the worst possible times. That’s been negating their big plays that Bobby Petrino has been cooking up. Tennessee’s offense hit a few big plays against Oklahoma, but the Sooners were able to keep the Vols in check for most of the game. This Arkansas defense is technically one spot better than OU in the SEC, but don’t think it will be that way by season’s end. The defensive front for the Hogs is legit with Landon Jackson and Xavien Sorey, but the secondary has me worried. I think Nico Iamaleava and the menu of weapons he has get the job done for the Vols.
#4 Tennessee 38
Arkansas 24
Hammer: Arkansas is desperate. They are currently 3-2 and including this game against Tennessee, have five games remaining against teams currently ranked inside the top 13. As it looks right now, they will need to upset a team or two to even reach a bowl game, despite both their current losses being super close games. Can they hurl a desperation grenade into Tennessee’s season in Fayettenam? No, they can’t. I don’t hate the matchup for Arkansas but they simply don’t have the talent. Arkansas does defend the run well, so if they can keep their defensive front fresh and possess the ball on offense, Nico will have to make some throws and take care of the ball. That has to be the game plan to keep this close: shut down Dylan Sampson, make Nico beat you and hit chunk plays on offense. I could see Arkansas hitting a few big plays. Talen Green is talented and Petrino can still call an offense, it just won’t be enough. I like it to be pretty close early, but the Vols are rested and coming off a bye week. They will be ready. Vols win and cover.
#4 Tennessee 35
Arkansas 21
The Waco Kid: This is Heupel and Nico’s year. They have the defense, a potent offense, and the Neyland faithful behind them. Taylen Green can be a stud for the Razorbacks but I think UT scores easily and quickly on the Arkansas defense. With a 17-point lead, it doesn’t matter what those piggies bring to the table, they cannot overcome a deficit to a high-powered offense. Tennessee by 17.
#4 Tennessee 38
Arkansas 21
Bossman: Space Coast best coast? Or will The Swamp swallow the Knights? Honestly, who the hell knows? Florida is bad this year, like, really bad, but they can score points. UCF only allows 24.5 points per game, but they give up 331 yards a game. That’s Big 12 football for you. Bend but don’t break. Ish. On offense, the Knights are a typical Gus Malzahn team, putting up 39.5 PPG. They did get blown out against Colorado last week, which is the only thing that gives me pause here, other than it being a night game in Gainesville. What doesn’t give me pause is the fact that the Gators are giving up OVER 425 YARDS PER GAME. KJ Jefferson must be salivating watching tape of this porous Gators defense. I like KJ in his SEC homecoming to take down the Gators and turn up the heat on Billy Napier another notch. UCF squeezes out a win on a late field goal.
UCF 40
Florida 37
Hammer: Hand up, I haven’t watched any UCF this year. I was planning to watch some of their game against Colorado last week but they got crushed. And Colorado is not very good. I’m shocked after that egg the Knights laid at home that they are somehow a favorite on the road in Gainesville? Look, Florida is nothing special. They stink too. But the Gators are coming off a bye and it's in The Swamp against an in-state opponent. Napier’s fate is likely already sealed, but at this point, if he keeps winning it's possible he will save his job. This is a must-win for the Gators, but I am struggling to see them win in this matchup. Graham Mertz is a capable quarterback and the Gators should be able to run the ball. UCF just gave up 128 (4.4 YPC) rushing yards to Colorado, who coming into that game had a whopping 275 rushing yards through four games. If the Buffs can run the ball against UCF, so can Florida. However, UCF can also run the dang ball. The Knights are currently #2 in the nation averaging 326 yards per game on the ground. Florida is awful at stopping the run, ranking 109th nationally, and giving up 188 yards per game. Not a good matchup for Florida, especially with a talented and experienced KJ Jefferson leading the UCF offense. The last dual threat that Florida faced was Marcel Reed from Texas A&M. Reed was making his first career start and he torched Florida. By far his best game since filling in for the injured Conner Weigman. Unless Florida figured out how to stop the run and defend a running QB in their bye week, they will lose this game.
UCF 35
Florida 31
The Waco Kid: KJ Jefferson is the man in this one. Florida has a sad defense and won’t be able to contain a guy like Jefferson. And UCF is running for some ridiculous number like 500+ yards a game. This will make for a sad day in The Swamp and most likely the end of the Napier era.
UCF 42
Florida 31
BYES:
Kentucky, LSU, Texas, Oklahoma, Mississippi State
