B&S Week 6 game-by-game previews 2023
All SEC all the time. Massive in-conference matchups headline this week’s slate.
By: Bossman Slim, Hammer, Waco Kid
The three epicenters of SEC Football on Saturday: Sanford Stadium, Kyle Field and Farout Field.
We’re five weeks into the season and the air is getting crisper, the drinks are getting “spiced,” and the football is getting more and more important. Usually, through five weeks, we have a decent idea of who these teams are, but over a quarter of the way through the season, we’re stumped as to how this thing is going to shake out. Which makes it all the more fun as we enter the midpoint of the season.
Here’s how the crew has fared up to this point.
Hammer posted a blistering 7-0 straight-up record last week, overtaking Bossman. His Ole Miss over LSU and Kentucky over Florida picks gave him the leg up. We’ll see if he can keep it going this week.
Let’s hit the previews.
Bossman Slim: This is the first game in a while that has felt momentous in Columbia. The Tigers of Mizzou are riding high at 5-0, going up against a wounded LSU team that sits at 3-2. Their losses have come to FSU and Ole Miss, who are no slouches, but fans are already deflated, knowing their playoff hopes are likely dashed unless they can run the table and win the SEC. That makes this a crucial game for LSU - can Brian Kelly get his team juiced and ready to go on the road against a Mizzou team that is brimming with confidence? I have a feeling this is going to be another shootout. Maybe not as many points scored as last week in the LSU-Ole Miss game, but plenty of points. Jayden Daniels is having a Heisman-caliber season, Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers are unguardable, but they’ve been betrayed by their defense. They have the second-best scoring offense in the SEC and the seventh-best in the country. On the other side, Brady Cook has finally grown into his own and has been the engine of the Mizzou offense that is churning up yards with Luther Burden, Theo Wease Jr., and RB Cody Schraeder, who quietly has the second-most rushing yards in the conference. I’m interested to see how this Mizzou defense, which has been stout against the run, holds up against an LSU rushing attack that is averaging almost 200 yards per game. To win, Mizzou needs to eat clock and slow this game down by controlling the ball, because LSU can outscore them and strike quickly. I’ve been riding the Mizzou train since the preseason, and I won’t stop now. Give me the Missouri defense to get just enough stops, just like Ole Miss last week, to notch a big upset at Farout Field.
#21 Missouri 42
#23 LSU 38
Hammer: With LSU’s crushing loss in Oxford last weekend, this game got a whole hell of a lot more interesting. Imagine a world where Mizzou wins this game. Columbia would be on fire all weekend and Brian Kelly would be public enemy number one in Louisiana. And it could absolutely happen. LSU’s pass defense is terrible and Mizzou can actually throw the ball this year. Brady Cook is playing like one the best QBs in the league so far, completing over 74% of his passes for 1,468 yards, 11 touchdowns and no interceptions. In fact, Cook just broke the SEC record for passes attempted without a pick. On the outside, Mizzou has weapons that can exploit that leaky secondary. Luther Burden leads the SEC in receiving with 43 catches for 644 yards and five touchdowns. Burden can do it all and should be a major factor in this matchup. That said, LSU can score the dang ball too. Jayden Daniels is playing even better than Brady Cook so far this year and Brian Thomas Jr. and Malik Nabers are dynamic wide receivers. I could absolutely see Missouri winning this game but I’m leaning LSU to win a close one. If you are Brian Kelly and the LSU Tigers, this is simply not a game you can afford to lose. LSU fans, boosters, and brass will not tolerate losing to Missouri and falling to 3-3 on the year. They thought they were winning the SEC and going to the playoff before the season. 3-3 with losses to Ole Miss and Mizzou is simply not an option for them so I like LSU to pull out a super close game.
#23 LSU 38
#21 Missouri 34
Waco Kid: This is actually an intriguing matchup. Usually, I would just write Mizzou off against a superior team. But the Columbia Tigers are undefeated and hosting LSU. The Bayou Bengals are fresh off their second loss of the season in a thriller against Ole Miss. This team is good and has some offensive power but proved against the Rebs that they can be outscored. Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers can only score so much when the defensive unit is giving up 55 points. This is a historically solid SEC defense that is being taken to the cleaners week in and week out. Eli Drinkwitz knows the weakness and will plan to exploit an inferior secondary. Missouri is bringing their A game with Brady Cook and Luther Burden anchoring the offense, and those two can score. LSU is the right choice but this week, the wrong choice feels so right. Missouri with the “upset.”
#21 Missouri 38
#23 LSU 35
Bossman Slim: Another massive matchup between the Tide and the Aggies. In 2012, Johnny Manziel swaggered into Bryant-Denny Stadium and conquered the Tide, setting up his Heisman-winning campaign. After that game, it looked like this would be a head-bashing rivalry for years to come, but that didn’t come to fruition. Only in the past few years has A&M lived up to what many thought this game could become. In the previous two seasons, this game has been decided by four points or less and come down to the final play. This one is shaping up to be no different. Since the Miami loss, the Aggies have figured out how to cover up their deficiencies in the secondary with suffocating play from their front seven, notching a staggering 14 sacks and 30 TFLs in their last two games. What might be even more impressive is that those sacks have come from eight different Aggies. A&M has not allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 1 against New Mexico. This defensive front has come into its own, but this is their stiffest test yet. The Bama offensive line has holes but has been improving week to week, yet Jalen Milroe is prone to run into sacks. The Aggie front seven vs. the Alabama O-line will determine this game. The Aggie offensive line will also have their hands full and Bama’s defense is among the best in the country. I think this is going to be a low-scoring, four-quarter, knife fight in a phone booth. Both teams know how important this game is in terms of winning the West, recruiting battles, etc. A&M gave Milroe fits last year, and with an improved defense and the home-field advantage (Kyle Field will be going bananas), I think A&M pulls off a massive upset late in the fourth quarter.
Texas A&M 27
#11 Alabama 24
Hammer: Despite the Aggies being unranked, this is the biggest game of the weekend in the SEC. The winner will be in the driver's seat for the SEC West race. Talent-wise, these teams are really close. The Aggies have amassed as much talent as anyone the Tide will play all year and they can match up with Alabama athletically. We’ve seen that play out in the last two seasons. When teams are relatively equal in terms of talent, the game usually comes down to two things: coaching and turnovers. Max Johnson had three turnovers last week against Arkansas and he has to clean those up for A&M to win. Jalen Milroe has also been turnover-prone in his limited time as the Alabama QB, so whichever team can limit turnovers will be in a good position. It’s not just turnovers though but where they happen and what the result is. Not all turnovers are created equal. A red zone turnover or turnover deep in your own territory are killers and could be the difference in this game. On the coaching side, Alabama doesn’t seem to have an advantage like they typically do. I won’t go so far as to say the Aggie staff is better, but to this point in the season I think its fair to say its a push. With the Aggies re-vamped offense under Bobby Petrino, I expect them to find a way to win this game at home. Jalen Milroe and the Alabama offense, especially when matched up against A&M’s salty defense, have not given me the confidence that they can go into a road environment like Kyle Field and win. Give me the Aggies to pull it off late.
Texas A&M 27
#11 Alabama 24
Waco Kid: Every time I get excited about this A&M team they go and screw it up. Case and point: the Miami game. The Ags came off a dominating performance against New Mexico the week before only to be stomped out by the ‘Canes. I’ve got PTSD flashbacks for this week. Back-up QB Max Johnson looked very good against an Arkansas team that will be bowl-bound. Despite turning the ball over multiple times, the maroon defense was able to shut down the Hogs and provide plenty of chances for their offense to score. They even had scores on defense and special teams. It was an all-around solid performance for Jimbo and Company. But Nick is going to Nick and proved last week the Tide are still contenders. They ran rampant over Mississippi State and put themselves right back into the conversation after an embarrassing early-season loss to Texas. Jalen Milroe looked like an elite SEC quarterback and the defense bent but never broke. This will be a great game to fill the afternoon slot but at the end of the day, Saban is going to exploit a backup quarterback and the Ags are looking at their second loss of the season.
#11 Alabama 32
Texas A&M 17
Bossman Slim: Perfect game for that mid-afternoon tailgate nap. Billy Napier has been getting raked over the coals this week for his offense’s performance over the last two games, looking anemic against Charlotte and properly destitute against Kentucky. Last season the Gators lost to Vandy with Anthony Richardson at QB, which is patently insane, and this year is even more important that the Gators get a win against an inferior Vandy squad. It looks like AJ Swann (elbow bruise) will be good to go, so they’ll get the Commodores near full strength. Vandy is giving up 33 points a game, but can Florida exploit this weak Black and Gold defense? Not much evidence says they can, but Vandy is giving up almost 150 rushing yards per game. I think this is where Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne (if he can go) get going and have a bounce-back week. Vandy keeps it closer than the experts think, but Florida does enough to get a much-needed W.
Florida 35
Vanderbilt 27
Hammer: Similar to what Brian Kelly is facing this weekend, this is as close to a must-win for Billy Napier as it gets. Granted, it's a much easier game to host Vandy than head to Colombia, MO but the stakes are still high. It doesn’t help that Napier is 0-1 against Vandy at Florida. You don’t lose to Vandy while the head coach at Florida and keep you job long, especially this Commodore team. Florida got steamrolled last weekend at Kentucky, surrendering 329 yards rushing. Florida is awful on the road though. The only road win Napier has had since arriving in Gainesville was in the win against A&M last fall where over 40 players were unavailable for the Aggies due to injury and illness. With this game being at home, Florida will take care of business. I say it every week here, but Vandy is simply not good. Whether it's AJ Swann or Ken Seals at QB, the ‘Dores won’t be able to get it done in the Swamp. I think Florida’s run game and offense overall will look much better in the friendly confines of The Swamp against a below-average Vandy defense than they did a week ago. That said, this spread is big and I don't know if Florida can score enough on anyone to cover 18 and a half so I’ll take Vandy to back door cover here.
Florida 34
Vanderbilt 17
Waco Kid: Looks like Florida gets the bye week game this Saturday. I don’t care how silly Kentucky made the Gators look, there aren’t many scenarios where I see Vandy being able to contain Billy Napier’s boys. The Commodores are far and away the worst team in the SEC and while I see them providing at least one upset this season it will not be in the Swamp. Graham Mertz showed up last week but the ground game was lackluster and ultimately that paired with the defensive effort did not give much of a shot to the Gator playcaller. I think this is a blowout and never within reach for Vanderbilt but I am not sure if UF covers.
Florida 35
Vanderbilt 24
Bossman Slim: Another major upset alert. Kentucky is 5-0 and just gashed the Florida Gators while Georgia had to slug out a victory in Jordan-Hare over Auburn. This is the most vulnerable Georgia has looked in a while, and I don’t count the Mizzou game last year because flukes happen. As an overall product, it looks like the veil of invincibility has slipped a bit in Athens. Don’t be mistaken though, this team is still loaded and talented enough to run the table, win the SEC, and play for a national title. By season's end, I expect them to be a machine once again, but can they get there without a blemish? I’m not so sure. Kentucky pounded Florida in the running game last week, posting a ridiculous 329 yards rushing. That will not happen this week. Georgia boasts one of the better rush defenses in the conference, as you would expect. The Bulldogs are going to take away Ray Davis’s running lanes and make Devin Leary beat them through the air, which to date he has not shown he can do. Maybe he can do it, but I need to see it to believe it. Carson Beck on the other side hasn’t been overly impressive, but he’s putting up good numbers, is looking more comfortable each week, and he’s got Brock freakin’ Bowers. Give me the Dawgs to cover at home.
#1 Georgia 38
#20 Kentucky 21
Hammer: Kentucky looked decent in their first few games but then turned on the jets when Florida came to town last week, squarely landing them in the conversation for the second-best team in the SEC East. Big Blue Nation hopes they can make a move for the top team in the East by beating Georgia this weekend in Athens. I don’t see it. Has Georgia looked mortal this year? Yes. They were losing at halftime to South Carolina and Auburn took the Dawgs to the brink of losing. It’s clear Georgia is not what they have been the last two years at this point in the season, but that doesn’t mean Kentucky can beat them at Sanford Stadium at night. The Kentucky passing game will need to make plays downfield if they hope to win this one. Ray Davis is fantastic, but Georgia will bottle him up on the ground. No one runs on Georgia and Kirby Smart. They are going to try and make Devin Leary beat them and I don’t have the confidence he can do that on the road. Defensively, Kentucky is solid. They should be able to limit Georgia in many of the same ways Auburn did as the Dawgs are still trying to find an identity on offense with many new faces and a new coordinator in Mike Bobo. I look for this game to be competitive and physical but UGA will pull it out late.
#1 Georgia 27
#20 Kentucky 16
Waco Kid: UGA is still the beast in the East. After surviving a thriller at Jordan-Hare, the Dawgs will look to get back on track against Kentucky. This has the makings of a good game, especially with the slow starts that Georgia has been having in every matchup this season. If the Wildcats can go up by three scores in the first half, it could make for an interesting second. If not, this is the same old story, just a different week. Kirby Smart will always have his teams ready defensively but Carson Beck needs to come out firing and not rely slowly on that suffocating defense to give him the ball over and over again. If they want a shot at the three-peat, the Beck-Bowers connection will need to stay hot and guys like RaRa Thomas and Dominic Lovett will need to make some big plays. Good news is Ladd McConkey should be back for Saturday’s contest which will just add another weapon to the arsenal. I want this to be a good game but I think Georgia is coming out with a chip on their shoulder and something to prove. The red and black cover.
#1 Georgia 42
#20 Kentucky 24
Bossman Slim: This is a classic trap game. Ole Miss, riding high off an upset win of LSU at the Vaught, reads their own press clippings and starts buying into their own hype (rat poison!), overlooking a talented but wounded Arkansas team. Having this one at home at night is a huge plus for Ole Miss. If it was on the road, I’d be even more worried. Arkansas is starving for a win and grabbing a victory over a darling Ole Miss team would do a lot to cool Sam Pittman’s seat. Can he get it done…? I THINK SO. Jaxson Dart has been playing at a very high level and has weapons all around him. They’ve had some difficulty getting the running game going, except for last week when they went insano-mode on LSU for 317 yards and three scores. Arkansas has a solid rush defense and Ole Miss is going to have to beat the Hogs through the air until they get in the red zone. The head-to-head on paper tells me this one is Ole Miss’s for the taking. But I’m going with my heart and against logic - I think Sam Pittman has these Hogs mad and feeling disrespected, and KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders (and Var’keyes Gumms??) will get going to pull out a narrow, but major, win.
Arkansas 45
#16 Ole Miss 42
Hammer: Arkansas needs this win as much as they have needed a win in the Sam Pittman era. Things are not good in Fayetteville as the team has lost three straight games and the fanbase is turning on Sam Pittman. The lovable coach who turned this program around after the Chad Morris disaster is hearing the whispers turn into public questions surrounding the program. Fans are pissed and it's not getting any easier. The team is just not that good despite having KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders. I trust Arkansas teams under Sam Pittman to fight like hell, but so far that hasn’t led to many wins in 2023. We just saw Texas A&M rack up 7 sacks and 15 TFLs against Arkansas, and that doesn't bode well against a talented Ole Miss front seven. LSU just torched Ole Miss, but the Razorback offense is not nearly as lethal. KJ Jefferson is capable of taking over a game, but top to bottom the Razorback offense doesn't have close to the weapons of LSU, so I think Ole Miss will have a better day defensively. Plus, Jaxson Dart at home against a below-average Arkansas defense seems like a bad matchup. This game is always wild and competitive so I’m not expecting a blowout but Arkansas does not have the horses to get a win in Oxford. This will end up being the Hog’s 4th straight loss with a road trip to Alabama looming the following week. Yikes.
#16 Ole Miss 38
Arkansas 27
Waco Kid: Plain and simple, Ole Miss is better at this point during the season. Arkansas is still figuring things out offensively and that does not bode well against a team that just put up 55 against the LSU defense. I will say that is one thing I’m not expecting in this game, defense. With Rocket Sanders starting to get back into true form, the Razorbacks will be able to score more efficiently. But not nearly as easy as the Rebs will be able to. Ole Miss is riding high off a big-time win against LSU, while the piggies just got their behinds handed to them by A&M. Should be a high-scoring, fun game to watch but I think Lane Kiffin and the Mississippi boys are too much to handle on offense and walk away with another W in the column. Count on them covering as well.
#16 Ole Miss 48
Arkansas 27