Biscuits & SEC Week 7 game-by-game previews 2024
Week 6 brought the upsets; Week 7 brings one of the best Saturdays you’ll ever see in college football. Buckle up!
By: Bossman, Hammer, Waco Kid
After the pure insanity of last weekend, will we return to normalcy in Week 7? I doubt it, but on paper, this week should have some awesome games. Given the wild Week 6, the boys struggled with their picks. Bossman went 0-6 ATS and 2-4 straight up. Yikes. Hammer and Waco Kid fared slightly better but still struggled overall. Before you shame us, can anyone honestly say they predicted Vandy beating Bama? Arkansas beating Tennessee? Didn’t think so!
Unlike last week, which featured just one ranked vs. ranked game (A&M vs Mizzou), this weekend is littered with big games. Leading the way, #12 Ole Miss heads to Death Valley to play #13 LSU and #1 Texas plays #18 Oklahoma in the Red River Shootout, which is always an entertaining game. Can Bama bounce back? How about Tennessee? Or did Florida find something in their bye week? We’ll see on Saturday.
Waco Kid had a super important can’t miss work conference (?) this week, so we’ll just have his scores for this preview.
Let’s dive in.
*Update: a previous version of this post had South Carolina hosting Alabama. Blame Bossman’s post-illness brain fog…
Bossman: I would have given this potential upset a slightly higher chance of happening in the preseason than what we saw last week. I would have given Vandy a negative chance to beat Alabama, while giving South Carolina a 5% chance, even at home. My how things can change. Now that Vanderbilt has slain the dragon, I actually give South Carolina less of a chance to upset the Tide. While the Gamecocks faithful will be smelling blood in the water pre-kickoff, they will quickly find out you don’t “want Alabama,” especially after one of the worst losses in the history of the program. Bama is going to be ticked off and out for scalps. I hate to say it too, but Vanderbilt has a better offense to exploit the predictable Alabama defense. I don’t trust South Carolina’s offense at all right now. I don’t see them keeping up with Bama’s offense. Give me the Tide to cover.
#7 Alabama 38
South Carolina 13
Hammer: Well, well, well. We’ve seen how Alabama responded to an epic, emotional win over Georgia by laying an all-time egg and losing to Vandy. How will they respond to that devastating loss? My guess is they will respond well and run over South Carolina. Alabama’s defense has problems. Georgia took a while to figure it out but moved the ball at will in the second half. Vandy kept the Bama defense on their toes. Luckily for the Tide, South Carolina’s offense stinks. LaNorris Sellers and the Gamecock offense are not going to be able to move the ball well enough here. They don’t have the high-end talent or consistency to expose Alabama’s weaknesses. I do think South Carolina’s defense is solid, especially on the defensive line. So they could give Milroe and the Bama offense some fits, but eventually, the dam will break. Alabama’s offense was not the issue against Vandy. As long as they take care of the ball, I expect them to cruise in this matchup and right the ship.
#7 Alabama 35
South Carolina 13
The Waco Kid:
#7 Alabama 43
South Carolina 10
Bossman: Red Rover, Red Rover, will you bring Red River over…to the SEC? These two schools wasted no time declaring that this was now the SEC’s best rivalry. We could spend an entire column on that sheer arrogance it takes to come invited into someone else's house and say “This is nice, but mine is way better. Did you know we split the crowd?” Got it, very cool. My annoyance aside, this is a fun rivalry and one of the best in college football. Feels a little odd to have it at 3:30 and not noon, but it’ll still be a good time. This game is historically close, no matter what kind of season either team is having. You wouldn’t be surprised at all to see Oklahoma pull off a big upset. I know Texas is good, but I’m not sure they’re as perfect as everyone makes them out to be. That performance against Mississippi State in Austin wasn’t much to write home about. However, the Horns are close to full health this week and have way more firepower than the Sooners right now. I’ll take the experienced QB over Michael Hawkins and the Texas weapons/defense vs. OU’s skeleton WR corps. Good luck, Sooners.
#1 Texas 31
#18 Oklahoma 16
Hammer: The first chapter of the Red River Shootout in the SEC should be a big one. Despite the large spread, this game always seems to be close. Nine of the last eleven games here have been decided by one score or less, and the Sooners have dominated the series recently, winning 11 of the last 15 matchups. Both teams come into this game off a bye week and hope to be healthy. Quinn Ewers is expected to return for Texas, and Oklahoma is hoping for Deion Burks back at wideout. Several other OU receivers will likely miss this game, but hopefully, Burks can return because the Sooners need all the help they can get, especially for true freshman QB Michael Hawkins Jr. Normally, I would pick the Horns in a game like this. Oklahoma’s offense is not good and I struggle to see how they can keep up with this one. I could see a Texas blowout coming. But this is a rivalry game and OU always plays well. This pick is purely based on rivalry vibes, so I’ll take Oklahoma to play tough and cover. The biggest reason OU can’t win this outright is their passing game. The Sooners have been abysmal throwing the ball this year, hence why they benched Jackson Arnold. Their offensive line has been pretty weak and their wide receivers are all hurt. If Texas has a weakness, it’s likely their secondary, which ranked 117th in the FBS last season. So far in 2024, Texas hasn’t played a passing game worth a damn but unfortunately, they won’t this weekend either. Oklahoma will need to rely on the run game, time of possession, and a good defense to keep this close.
#1 Texas 31
#18 Oklahoma 17
Waco Kid:
#18 Oklahoma 34
#1 Texas 31
Bossman: Most years I would enjoy writing this preview. Mississippi State has a decent team and maybe the Bulldogs could jump up and catch the Dawgs! How fun would that be! Not this year. This will not be fun. Mississippi State is not equipped to hang with Georgia this year. They played Texas well for a half, but that was the best ball they’ve played all year. They were getting blown out by Arizona State for most of the game. They got rocked by Florida. Oh, and Toledo. I mean, Toledo gave them an all-expenses paid one-way ticket on one of their rockets straight to the moon. Next up is Georgia. The Dawgs steadied the ship last week by going boa-constrictor on Auburn. This week they can coast. Kirby won’t have them overlooking this one, give me Georgia. That’s a big spread…but I’ll hold my breath and give UGA the benefit of the doubt against a hapless Bulldogs squad.
#5 Georgia 48
Mississippi State 13
Hammer: This should be quick. Mississippi State is the worst team in the SEC and sadly it’s not close. Georgia will win this game easily, I am just not ready to trust Georgia’s offense to cover a spread this big. Carson Beck and this offense is clearly missing Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey who now play on Sundays. Perhaps this is the game that Beck and this offense figure it out, but I will believe it when I see it. I expect Georgia to handle business but I’m going to pick State to cover, barely.
#5 Georgia 41
Mississippi State 10
The Waco Kid:
#5 Georgia 48
Mississippi State 24
Bossman: The Vols do a lot of things well these days but one thing they still don’t do well is beat Florida. Since the turn of the century, Florida is 19-5 against the Volunteers. YIKES. Even with all the turmoil Florida has endured since Urban Meyer left in 2010, Tennessee has just TWO wins against the Gators. However, if there is any year where the disparity between the two teams is in Tennessee’s favor, it’s this year. Now, is it so insurmountable that Florida can’t win? No. We just watched Tennessee crumble against unranked Arkansas last week, scoring just 14 points. Big thing to note there, though, is that the Hogs boast a much better defense than Florida. The Gators are next to last in the SEC in total defense and aren’t much better against the pass. Josh Heupel must be salivating watching the tape. I think Tennessee rights the ship here and gets a big win in front of the Neyland faithful. I do think Florida covers here but give me the Vols straight up.
#8 Tennessee 27
Florida 14
Hammer: Alright, alright, alright. This game just got a lot more interesting. Florida came off a bye week and disposed of UCF last week with ease. The defense actually stopped the run for the first time all year, and the GRaham Mertz-led offense looked solid. As usual, Mertz was effective and efficient, but far from explosive. Meanwhile, Tennessee got punked by Arkansas and for the second week in a row, the Vols high powered offense looked average. Oklahoma and Arkansas have better defenses than Florida, so Tennesee should score more in this one, especially since it’s back home in Neyland. However, it’s clear that Nico Iamaleava is not quite the player that many had anointed him just yet. He’s playing fine, but in the last two games, Josh Heupel has relied heavily on the running game and the Vols offense has been limited downfield. This will not be an easy game for Tennessee, but I’m going to take them to cover. Florida is still a very flawed team and expecting them to go into Neyland and keep this close is a step too far from me. I don’t know if this gets ugly and the Vols run Florida off the field, but I will take them to win by more than 15.
#8 Tennessee 38
Florida 21
The Waco Kid:
#8 Tennessee 38
Florida 21
Bossman: As the rankings would indicate, this game is expected to be close. Ole Miss turned in a dud against Kentucky a few weeks ago that made people wake up, while LSU has wobbled to a 4-1 start. I really hesitate here because Ole Miss is in a tough spot. The Rebels are about to play their seventh straight game while the Tigers are coming off a bye and get a night game. At home. In Death Valley. That should make the hair on any opponent's neck stand up. Yet, one thing keeps me coming back to Ole Miss…this T-E-R-R-I-B-L-E Tigers defense. If Heupel was salivating watching tape of Florida, Lane Kiffin was drooling watching tape of LSU. This one is ripe for an “upset,” but I’m gonna go with my gut and the Ole Miss talent on offense to outduel LSU’s secondary, doing just enough to win.
#8 Ole Miss 30
#13 LSU 26
Hammer: I will be squarely on my couch for this one, watching every play. Should be a fun one in Baton Rouge. Ole Miss looks like they’re back on track and LSU keeps stumbling into wins. For LSU to have a chance in this one, they’ll need to control the line of scrimmage and keep this talented Ole Miss front in check (this front has 24 freaking sacks already this year). Garrett Nussmeier will also need to be at the top of his game and hit some shot plays against this Ole Miss secondary to the likes of Kyren Lacey, Aaron Anderson or Mason Taylor. I think LSU can keep up with Ole Miss offensively right now, even if the Rebels have the slight edge. Death Valley will nullify that advantage for Mississippi. I am worried about this atrocious LSU secondary…but I think they step up and get just enough stops to get a big win in Baton Rouge. Geaux Tigahs.
#13 LSU 38
#9 Ole Miss 35
Waco Kid:
#13 LSU 45
#8 Ole Miss 34
Bossman: Dang, a 13.5 spread for this game after Vandy just knocked off #1? Someone get Rodney Dangerfield. WE CAN’T GET NO RESPECT AROUND HERE! The trouble for Vandy here is that Kentucky has a solid defense. I thought Alabama had a solid D, but Vandy showed them…so can they show Kentucky? It will be fascinating to watch. Both of these teams are going to want to run the ball and control the clock, so I expect a low-scoring game. It also feels like a letdown spot for Vandy. Riding high off the biggest win in program history, reading your own press clippings, and starting a podcast. No shade! Strike while the iron is hot. Is the focus where it needs to be…?Don’t forget, Commodores, Mark Stoops and this Kentucky defense shut down Ole Miss just a few short weeks ago. I like them to do the same this week against Vanderbilt. I think it’s a close one and Vandy covers, but Kentucky wins.
Kentucky 26
Vanderbilt 20
Hammer: Oh, man. Diego Pavia and his band of merry men head to Lexington after what I can only assume was a week of drinking, plundering, and mischief on the streets of Nashville. I’m halfway kidding, as the Vanderbilt Commodore football team is not a band of pirates. However, this is a tough spot. Vandy just won their biggest game in program history and now they go on the road to take on a surging Kentucky team who is coming off a bye week. The Wildcats were sitting on their blue couches in Lexington last week, watching Diego Pavia carve up Alabama in route to a shocking upset. Translation: Kentucky will be ready for this game, and although I believe in what Clark Lea is doing, can he really keep those kids locked in this week after the Bama upset? It would be natural to come into this game flat, and if they do, Kentucky will feast. The Wildcat defense held a much more explosive Ole Miss offense at bay the last time we saw them take the field, and I think they can do the same against Vandy, especially with an extra week of preparation for the odd option/veer style of offensive Vandy runs. Give me Kentucky to bring the Commodores back to earth and cover.
Kentucky 31
Vanderbilt 17
Waco Kid:
Vanderbilt 28
Kentucky 17
Byes:
Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M
