B&S Week 4 game-by-game previews
Week 4 is upon us as the guys try to dig out of their ATS slump.
By: The Waco Kid, The Hammer, Bossman Slim
Rocket Sanders and the Razorbacks have a prime opportunity against Texas A&M (Photo via Best of Arkansas Sports)
Heading into Week 4 and we’re really getting into the swing of the college football season. We’ve seen all these teams a few times now and they are starting to take shape. Each week we learn more and more about who they really are. Over the coming weeks, some teams will ascend, and others will falter. May the SEC Gods be ever in your favor.
This must be the week we get on track, right? The Biscuits & SEC staff are putting out some abysmal ATS picks. I’m telling y'all keep fading us until something changes. Perhaps we should start bringing in some data and analytics to our picks rather than just emotion and gut feeling? At this point, it can't get any worse. It’s a one-week-at-a-time thing here though so let's see if we can right the ship in Week 4.
Kent State at #1 Georgia - 12:00pm ET on ESPN+ (UGA - 42)
Bossman Slim: Golden Flashes coach Sean Lewis was brought in to help the Golden Flashes score points. This team can do that, scoring around 30 points per game. But not this week. This is an easy win for Georgia at home and I expect them to cover. Kent State can’t do anything against this defense and the offense is humming right now. Dawgs by a mile.
#1 Georgia 52
Kent State 6
The Hammer: Nothing of note to say here. Another easy win for Georgia. I expect Stetson Bennett and the UGA offense to do whatever they want, and Kent State ain’t doing anything on that Dawg defense.
#1 Georgia 49
Kent State 3
The Waco Kid: Even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while. That squirrel being Kent State and that nut being the end zone.
#1 Georgia 56
Kent State 7
Missouri at Auburn - 12:00pm ET on ESPN (Auburn - 7)
Bossman Slim: This is the toughest game to pick this week, because I’m not sure which team is worse. Mizzou got blown out by a Kansas State team that turned around and lost to Tulane, and Auburn just got boat raced in their own stadium by Penn State. TJ Finley is hurt and so is 3rd stringer Zach Calzada. The Auburn line can block anyone and can’t get Tank Bigsby going. That said, I think Missouri is even worse than Auburn. Flip a coin and give me the Auburn Tigers since it’s at Jordan-Hare, AND they cover.
Auburn 31
Missouri 23
The Hammer: This is really close to being a loser leaves town game. It’s well known how hot Bryan Harsin’s seat is on the Plains, but folks in COMO are getting frustrated with Eli Drinkwitz as well. Now, Drinkwitz won’t be fired if he loses this game, but it will be one of Mizzou’s best chances at an SEC win outside of Vandy and South Carolina. If Harsin loses this one, I really think he might be out of a job by Sunday morning **queue Sunday morning coming down by Johnny Cash**. TJ Finley is out for this game, and it was also reported that Zach Calzada is done for the season after shoulder surgery. It’s the Robby Ashford show, and based on what we’ve seen from him thus far, that’s not a good sign. Luckily, Mizzou’s defense stinks. Oh, and so does their offense. I made the mistake of picking Auburn against Penn State last week, and yet here I am picking the Tigers again. I don’t think either team is good, but Auburn absolutely needs this win and I think they are less bad than Mizzou. I know that’s bad grammar but that’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Auburn 16
Missouri 10
The Waco Kid: This is the battle for mediocrity. If you want to know who in the SEC can put on a jockstrap one leg at a time you should watch this game. If you are looking for top-tier football on a national level, look elsewhere. Auburn has been abysmal with TJ Finley taking snaps but it’s not all him, that o line of there’s couldn’t stop a fat kid at a ½ priced bake sale. There are holes all through the Tiger offense but it starts with the five up front. I mean when you have a back like Tank Bigsby you shouldn’t be worried about QB play but Harsin’s crew has to because Bigsby can’t even get going behind that line. Start running some two tight end sets and work the play action for goodness sake. Just do something to provide, whoever may be in the backfield this weekend, a little bit of time to get the ball past the line of scrimmage. As for Mizzou, they are still a building program under Drinkwitz and they are proving it week in and week out. As bad as the Plains Tigers are, the Black and Gold Tigers are even worse. At this point they just do not have the talent to compete with most teams in conference play. Give me the Blue and Orange and let’s get on with the day.
Auburn 26
Missouri 13
Bowling Green at Mississippi State - 12:00pm ET on SEC Network (Miss St - 30.5)
Bossman Slim: Pretty hard to figure out what to make of Bowling Green, who lost to a subpar UCLA team and Eastern Kentucky, but then beat Marshall last week. The same Marshall who beat Notre Dame. Eastern Kentucky now has a transitive property win over Notre Dame. The Irish are really bad, fire Marcus Freeman! Jokes aside, this one is an easy win for the Bulldogs to get back on track before a showdown against Texas A&M next week. State to win and cover.
Mississippi State 44
Bowling Green 10
The Hammer: I expect a big bounce back from Mississippi State here. They are far more talented than Bowling Green and should play pissed after they threw the game away in Baton Rouge last weekend. Cowboy Will Rogers needs to get his swagger back and there is no better opponent than Bowling Green.
Mississippi State 35
Bowling Green 7
The Waco Kid: After a disappointing loss to an underwhelming LSU team, I expect the Bulldogs to come out in that Mike Leach air raid and tear Bowling Green a new one. Will Rogers had an off day last week, only throwing for 214 yards and a score. He also turned the ball over passing which percentage-wise he has been good about avoiding. I think he has 10 TDs to 3 interceptions and that is after his poor performance in Death Valley. Rogers will get right back on track this week and most likely throw for 4 TDs and 300 yards and the Bulldogs will go quietly into the night as victors once again.
Mississippi State 42
Bowling Green 17
#20 Florida at #11 Tennessee - 3:30pm ET on CBS (Tenn - 10.5)
Bossman Slim: I am chomping at the bit for this game. Florida is hemorrhaging after two rough performances while Tennessee is rising behind the steady play of Hendon Hooker. This one feels like a dogfight to me until late in the game, just because of the rivalry, but then Tennesse pulls away. There’s a lot of bad blood in this rivalry and Tennessee is sick of losing to the Gators, who are 16-1 against the Vols since 2005. Tennessee’s pass defense can be exploited, but Anothony Richardson hasn’t shown me that he can exploit it through three games. Florida would need to get the run game going, and Tennessee boasts the 4th best rush defense in the country. Meanwhile, Florida gives up over 370 yards per game and this Tennessee offense is putting up 553 yards a game. This is a total mismatch for UF. I’m taking the Vols to cover.
#11 Tennessee 34
#20 Florida 21
The Hammer: Rocky Top will be absolutely bonkers for this one. The hated Florida Gators hit the road for the first time all year as they head to Knoxville awaiting a checkered end zone and crowd at Neyland. Hendon Hooker is one of the top QBs in the country and the Vols offense is clicking. I do think Florida is athletic enough to hold the line for a while, but I like Tennessee to pull away as the game goes on. The Gators don’t have the depth to keep up, especially if Tennessee’s offense can get up to 70-80 plays as they typically do. Offensively, the Gators have really struggled since playing Utah. Anthony Richardson hasn't thrown a touchdown pass yet and he’s thrown four interceptions. Seems like the jury is out on Richardson and until he starts beating teams with downfield passing, the Gators will continue to struggle. The Vols defense isn't great, but they are a solid unit and I don't think Florida can get into the 30s. Give me the Vols to win this one and exercise some serious demons against the Gators.
#11 Tennessee 38
#20 Florida 24
The Waco Kid: Between this matchup and The Arkansas Texas A&M game, I am not sure which will be the game of the week. Both are top 25 matchups against teams that historically play each other to the wire. Florida has had some struggles recently behind the passing, or lack thereof, from QB Anthony Richardson. Richardson is a great athlete but has yet to hit his stride moving the ball around through the passing game. Even against a trash USF, the Gators had trouble moving the ball. Richardson threw for only 112 yards and added two interceptions. Luckily the Gainesville Group has three backs that are more than capable of taking over a game and they did so last week. Tennessee comes into this one rolling through the competition. Granted that competition has not been top tier but this weekend they get to prove to the nation if their high-powered offense is legit or if Heupel followed his predecessor and paid for wins with McDonald’s happy meals. I think the Vols are for real but we will know for sure once the final whistle blows. But if the Rocky Top is on point you don’t find another joint.
#11 Tennessee 45
#20 Florida 24
Tulsa at #16 Ole Miss - 4:00pm ET on SEC Network (Ole Miss - 21.5)
Bossman Slim: This is the best offense Ole Miss has faced this year, as Tulsa is scoring 43 points and racking up 523 yards per game. The bad news for the Golden Hurricanes is that Ole Miss boasts the 4th best overall defense in the SEC and are also scoring 43 points per game. Vegas has this one nailed I think, but I’m taking Ole Miss with a late cover.
#16 Ole Miss 48
Tulsa 24
The Hammer: I think many folks nationally still see Ole Miss as a high flying, pass happy offense without a defense. Those people haven't been paying attention lately then, dating back to last year. The Ole Miss offense runs the damn football as good as anyone in the country and their defense has continued their improvement from a year ago. This is what I’m keeping an eye on here in what should be an easy win for the Rebs. Tulsa can sling the ball on offense and put up some points. The Golden Hurricane QB Davis Brin is leading the country in passing yards through three games with 1,206 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception so far. The kid can play, so I’m interested to see how Ole Miss handles this attack. There’s no chance Tulsa can slow down Zach Evans and Quinshon Judkins on the ground, so I like Ole Miss to win comfortably here, but I do think we’ll learn something from the defense in this game.
#16 Ole Miss 45
Tulsa 21
The Waco Kid: Well another year and Lane Kiffin is at it again. When he isn’t busy posting about his new dog, Juice, or taking pictures with the lovely ladies of Oxford, the magician is pulling rabbits out of his hat on offense. The Rebels are averaging 43 points and 497 yards of total offense per game. That statistic, in and of itself, is probably why Mississippi is ranked #16 in the nation. Have they played the hardest schedule? No. Does it get any more difficult this week? No, but it is fun to watch for now. We will see what Ole Miss is really made of next week against Kentucky but for now, sit back, relax and enjoy some fireworks.
#16 Ole Miss 48
Tulsa 23
Northern Illinois at #8 Kentucky - 7:00pm ET on ESPN (Kentucky - 26.5)
Bossman Slim: NIU lose to Vandy. Kentucky good, Vandy bad. Kentucky cover.
#8 Kentucky 42
Northern Illinois 14
The Hammer: Another snoozer here. Kentucky is a good team and they will handle their business here, especially defensively. I am still not sold on Will Levis and the Kentucky offense, but Northern Illinois is not a threat in this one. The Wildcats might play with their food for a while, but they’ll pull away in the end.
#8 Kentucky 34
Northern Illinois 10
The Waco Kid: Why is this the 7 PM game? I have to wake up from my midday nap to this garbage? Kentucky is a top team and the nation and will continue to sit near the upper echelon of the East (until they play Georgia). This game will not change that. Northern Illinois has not been good since Jordan Lynch took snaps for them back in 2013 and before that when Garrett Wolfe played for them in 2006. Outside of those two guys, the Huskies have just been a normal, pay-to-play team. Wildcats sit the starters after three possessions in the second half.
#8 Kentucky 56
Northern Illinois 14
#10 Arkansas vs #23 Texas A&M at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, TX - 7:00pm ET on ESPN (A&M - 2.5)
Bossman Slim: I have waffled on my pick for this game all week. This one is a toss-up. If you looked at it on paper, A&M is probably the pick based on pure roster talent. But that is not the way this works. Texas A&M has lost to Appalachian State this year and looked average in all three games, mainly on offense, where they rank dead last in the conference. The Aggies defense has been respectable, particularly in the secondary, but their rush defense is next to last in the conference. The only pass defense worse than A&M? The Arkansas Razorbacks, who are dead last in the country right now as they sorely miss Jalon Catalon on the back end. Arkansas can exploit the Aggies front seven with KJ Jefferson and Rocket Sanders who are averaging nearly 250 yards a game on the ground. Can A&M throw their own punches by thrashing the weak Arkansas secondary? I haven’t seen much to suggest that, but Evan Stewart is back from suspension this week and from his time at LSU, we know he can take shots deep. I like the Aggies in this one by a hair because I think they have the better defense and I think Max Johnson starts to find his rhythm with Jimbo. Evan Stewart puts the Aggies over the top. And let’s keep the trend going, they cover, dang it.
#23 Texas A&M 27
#10 Arkansas 24
The Hammer: This is the game of the weekend in my opinion. A&M needs this win, and if Arkansas can win it will solidify them as a top 10 team. The matchup here is fascinating. The Razorbacks offense is really good with Jefferson playing as well as any QB in the SEC, but A&M’s defense is stout. On the flip side, A&M’s offense is putrid but Arkansas is vulnerable defensively, especially against the pass. Can Max Johnson take advantage and stretch the field? Will Aggie receivers actually get separation? The path for A&M to win is pretty simple. Limit the Arkansas running game as much as possible on defense and then attack this weak secondary. Max Johnson is capable if given time to hit open guys. Problem with that plan I just laid out is we haven't seen any of that from the Aggies. I just trust Arkansas more in this matchup. I think the Hogs will be able to run the ball well enough to score some points, and I won’t trust A&M’s offense until they give me a reason to. I think A&M needs to get into the high 20s or low 30s to win this game and they have not shown they’re capable of that yet.
#10 Arkansas 27
#23 Texas A&M 24
The Waco Kid: This is a matchup the Southeast looks forward to every year. From the Ozarks to the Plains, the intrigue is present because of how close this matchup always seems to be. These teams are not only fighting for positions in the West but recruits, southern money, and new students who are torn between the adjoining states. And believe me in the South, especially in Texas, whoever wins football games has a huge impact on a university’s enrollment. The Arkansas Razorbacks look like one of the best teams in the nation right now minus last week’s hiccup of a game against Missouri State. Even playing as poorly as they did, the piggies still found a way to win. That typically shows just how good a team is, if they can overcome adversity and still win the squad is usually pretty solid. Behind KJ Jefferson and Raheim Sanders, AU has looked unstoppable on offense. Their defense has looked suspect at times giving up 27 points per game. This has not been an issue so far because of their productivity on the other side of the ball. Cue the Fightin’ Texas Ags, a team whose offense has looked horrible but defensively might be one of the best in the nation. That is what makes this game even more interesting, the juxtaposition between the two teams could lead to pretty much any outcome. I give the edge to A&M because of their D line and secondary and innate ability to score at least 14 points per game. That may be all they need in against Arkansas but let’s be honest, knowing the history of these two teams this will be a 100-point game that goes into double overtime.
#23 Texas A&M 56
#10 Arkansas 49
Vanderbilt at #2 Alabama - 7:30pm ET on SEC Network (Bama - 40.5)
Bossman Slim: 3-1 Vanderbilt has a message for the Tide: Alabama, you’re next! Nah, I’m just playing. Vanderbilt is improved, and they might sneak up on someone this year, but they are not sneaking up on Alabama. Tide Roll as they get tuned up for Arkansas next week.
#2 Alabama 51
Vanderbilt 7
The Hammer: Clark Lea and Vanderbilt are much improved from last year. AJ Swann looks like he might have something at QB for Vandy, but let's be real here. This is Vanderbilt on the road at Alabama. Improved or not, the Commodores are outmanned here. I expect Bryce Young to have plenty of time and get some things going in the passing game Saturday night. If I was Clark Lea, I might put Mike Wright back out there some of the time just to offset the Bama pass rush. Swann is a true freshman and playing on the road against that pass rush could be a recipe for disaster. Tide rollllll.
#2 Alabama 52
Vanderbilt 10
The Waco Kid: Vandy has a long way to go before this game is competitive. Saban is still pissed about the one-point win in Austin and while the Longhorns and ESPN may ride that loss to a top 25 finish on the season, Bama is not content with a performance like that. They will continue to roll over opponents and leave no doubt.
#2 Alabama 65
Vanderbilt 20
New Mexico at LSU - 7:30pm ET on ESPN+ (LSU - 30.5)
Bossman Slim: The only way New Mexico could win this game is if Heisenberg was the coach and he was the plug for every LSU player before this game. JESSE!!!!!!! But Heisenberg isn’t the coach, and New Mexico has been a helpless football program basically since its inception. Have you noticed a trend in my picks today? Tigers cover.
LSU 41
New Mexico 7
The Hammer: This SEC weekend is a slog. I’m really looking forward to the coming weeks when conference play really ramps up. This is an easy win for LSU. Brian Kelly will take care of the Lobos and enjoy a big pot of gumbo with his fahhmulleee after the game.
LSU 45
New Mexico 13
The Waco Kid: Brian Kelly and Manti Te’o’s fake girlfriend couldn’t even screw this one up. No matter how decent LSU looks this year there are some teams that cannot compete on a national level and the New Mexico Lobos are one of those teams. I don’t think they have ever had a good season, the only thing the Lobos are known for is somehow producing NFL great Brian Urlacher. The Tigers take this one in spectacular fashion. Even without Kayshon Boutte (out because of the birth of his child) Jayden Daniels should light this secondary up and start to impress college football fans. This will be a much-needed morality boost for a Louisiana State team that has a lot of questions still left unanswered. The Bayou Boys cover and this one is a no contest.
LSU 45
New Mexico 20
Charlotte at South Carolina - 7:30pm ET on ESPNU (SCAR - 22.5)
Bossman Slim: I watched a quarter of Charlotte football earlier this year, and I’ll never get that 30 mintues of my life back. These are not the 49ers from San Francisco, these might literally be 49ers from the 1800s they way this team plays football. TL;DR: Charlotte is bad at football. South Carolina is not great right now either, but they’re still an SEC team playing a night game at Williams Brice. Spencer Rattler will look like a Heisman candidate in this one and the Gamecocks will release weeks of frustration on a hapless Charlotte team. South Carolina to win anddddd???? COVER.
South Carolina 45
Charlotte 14
The Hammer: Another stinker…but South Carolina needs this one here. The Gamecocks are 1-2 on the year, and just got taken out behind the woodshed by Georgia. This offense needs someone to push around and get some kind of a rhythm going. If South Carolina’s offensive line can’t block Charlotte, things are far worse than they seem in Columbia. I like Shane Beamer and think he’s got a good thing going, but they are clearly a long way away from where they want to be. They’ll take care of Charlotte this weekend and hopefully gain some confidence.
South Carolina 38
Charlotte 10
The Waco Kid: South Carolina wins this one with ease but unlike my fellow B&S coworkers, I think Spencer Rattler does nothing to impress in this game. Another interception? Most definitely, and he may throw for 275 yards and 3 tuddies before being pulled in the third but a Heisman performance is not in the cards for the Heir to Slytherin. Why you may ask. The answer is simple, he is not the type of player that should even be discussed in the Heisman race. He’s what you call a booty quarterback. His play always stinks and no matter how much you try to wipe away the frustrations from the previous week, there is still a skid mark left.
South Carolina 35
Charlotte 10