Biscuits & SEC Week 4 game-by-game previews 2024
Tennessee at Oklahoma headlines Week 4 in the SEC, with more intriguing matchups down the slate.
By: Bossman Slim, Hammer, Waco Kid
The season is in full swing now and we are getting more and more conference games each week. We’re settling into peak college football season now, enjoy it. Plenty of teams remain a mystery right now, but hopefully, we will begin to get a clearer picture of everyone in the coming few weeks.
We need all the help we can get with our picks, so I’m glad we’re going to start seeing teams play real competition week after week.
Here is how the crew fared last week, as well as our season tallies.
We finally have a big SEC matchup this week, which is coming in prime time. The early season conference games have been fun, no doubt. They haven’t had as much on the line as Tennessee at Oklahoma, though. Josh Huepel brings his red-hot Vols back to his alma mater, where he was previously fired, for the Sooner’s first SEC game. Both teams are in the top 15 and Norman, Oklahoma will be ready to explode. The Sooners want to show that they are indeed SEC-ready and that stadium will be going bonkers. This is what we love about college football.
Outside of Norman, Auburn hosting Arkansas is a fascinating game and Florida heads to Starkville for the SEC dumpster fire bowl. I love the games this week, let’s dive into the previews.
Bossman: So, whose worse? Mississippi State is a far cry from the #1 team in the nation they rose to be in 2014, while for Florida’s fanbase, their national titles feel like they happened around the time of the moon landing. One small step for Florida football…off a cliff. I want to say this one is a total toss-up, but I don’t think it is. The Gators are not a good football team right now, but Mississippi State is down BAD. I would give the Texas School for the Deaf a shot against this Bulldog’s team. That team is good (no seriously, not a joke. They won a state championship in 2020). Both of these teams’ defenses are atrocious, as they rank 14th and 15th respectively in the SEC. UF is giving up over 400 yards a game and Mississippi State is pushing that line. The offenses are also right next to each other in the stat lineup with the Gators averaging 398 yards a game and State at 375. I don’t trust either offense, with Florida rotating QBs and the Bulldogs putting up a paltry 17 points against freaking Toledo. At home. I actually think this one could be a shootout, but as bad as Florida is, I think Mississippi State is much worse. If Billy Napier loses this game they should leave him in Starkvegas to drink away his sorrows at the local Applebee’s. I’ll take the Gators. I guess.
Florida 35
Mississippi State 23
Hammer: Oh boy. I’m a sicko, so of course I will be watching this game, but I feel bad for the two fan bases being subjected to this. Florida is pitiful and Billy Napier is a dead man walking. Mississippi State is even worse and just got blown out by TOLEDO at home last week. Yes, Toledo. Now we have a 1-2 Gator team heading to Starkville for an 11 a.m. local kickoff against a 1-2 Bulldogs team. Woof. I feel like I’ve already spent enough time on this game and I haven’t even dug into the matchup. I think Florida will win this game because Mississippi State has looked like a whole new level of bad, and Mertz/Lagway are decent enough. If Toledo can beat this Bulldogs team 41-17 in Starkville and Florida, even a bad Florida team, can’t pull out a win here then they might just want to shut the entire Gator football program down.
Florida 31
Mississippi State 24
The Waco Kid: Both of these teams are bad. How do you play in the SEC and justify getting your behinds beat by Toledo? This could go either way, who is the worst of the worst? Who can take that crown and finally give Vandy a fighting hope of not being the low man on the totem pole? Well, you know what people…I’m taking Mississippi State. Hail State!
Mississippi State 28
Florida 14
Bossman: The Bayou Bengals against the school that is in LA. LSU has had a shaky start to the season, losing to USC in the opener, letting Nicholls hang around for too long, and then barely escaping South Carolina with a win. Needless to say, they’re 2-1 and still have everything in front of them if they can shore up some things on offense and shape up the defense, which has been porous through three games (14th in the SEC). That’s going to be a tall task for Brian Kelly and Blake Baker, but it won’t be against a very down Bruins team. UCLA was gashed last week by Indiana, 42-13, allowing 430 total yards to the Hoosiers with 307 of those coming through the air. Nussmeier and the boys put up 285 yards through the air last week and added 132 yards rushing against a much better South Carolina defense. I don’t really trust LSU to cover a 23-point spread yet, but this one is at Tiger Stadium and UCLA is seriously down bad. I’ll go against my better judgment here and take LSU to cover.
#16 LSU 45
UCLA 17
Hammer: I still have a lot of questions about this LSU team, who could/should be 1-2 right now after last week’s close, somewhat lucky, win over South Carolina. The Tigers defense has plenty of holes, and their offense still cannot run the ball consistently. However, UCLA has been bad in just about every way through their two games. They barely beat Hawaii 16-13 in week one and got blown out by Indiana at home 42-13 last week. The Bruins currently rank 123rd in FBS in total offense, averaging only 290 yards a game. With LSU’s defense struggling for consistency and an identity, a home game against a struggling Bruins team seems like just what the doctor ordered. Look for Garrett Nussmeier and the Tiger offense to find plenty of yards through the air while LSU cruises to a win here.
#16 LSU 45
UCLA 20
The Waco Kid: LSU is experiencing a “down year” because they lost to USC in the first game of the season. Week 1 anything happens so this is not out of the normal. I would still take Nussmeier over anyone UCLA can put on the field. LSU by 15 but I think this one could open up and be a 28 point spread.
#16 LSU 38
UCLA 23
Bossman: Tossup alert. ESPN gives Auburn a 59% chance to win this one, likely only because it’s at Jordan-Hare. Both of these teams have struggled heavily through three weeks, with Arkansas blowing a 21-7 lead against Oklahoma State and having to put away UAB last week in the fourth quarter at home. Auburn meanwhile lost to Cal at home (inexcusable!) and played with their food for a half against New Mexico. I’m not confident in either one of these teams right now. Auburn is starting Hank Brown in the first SEC start of his career, while Taylen Green’s hot start has cooled off since Week 1. The big matchup to me for both teams in this one is run D vs. rushing O. Both teams want to pound the rock but will have to do so against stiff rush defenses. Arkansas is only giving up 61 rushing yards per game, while Auburn is holding teams under 100 yards. Both team's weakness is their pass defense. Auburn is dead last in the SEC while Arkansas sits at 14th in the conference. I don’t trust Hank Brown yet to think he can exploit the weak Arkansas secondary, and I think Arkansas will have the better day running the football against Auburn. Give me the Hogs in an upset at Jordan-Hare and Hugh Freeze to throw his visor once.
Arkansas 31
Auburn 28
Hammer: It won’t get a ton of national attention, but this is a super important game for both fanbases. Arkansas and Auburn expect to win this game. Hugh Freeze needs to begin SEC play with a home win against a beatable Arkansas team, especially after the Cal debacle. Sam Pittman is still coaching for his job and needs a win after his squad handed Oklahoma State that game in Week 2. Auburn benched Payton Thorne ahead of last week’s game and went with redshirt freshman Hank Brown. Brown threw for 235 yards, four TDs, and no picks. The offense looked much better, however, New Mexico is the second-worst defense in FBS in terms of yards per game. Montana State put up 35 points and Arizona put up 61 on this Lobo team so don’t get too ahead of your skis, Barners. Plus, on the other side of the ball, Auburn failed to record a sack last week and only had one tackle for loss. That leads us to this week. Arkansas is not New Mexico. Homefield advantage looms large here, but Arkansas has shown the ability to score points every single week, including a tough road trip to Oklahoma State. The Razorback defense is not that good, but I don’t think Auburn’s offense is capable of taking advantage just yet. If Auburn is going to win, their defense is going to need to play better than they have all year and they’ll need to run the dang ball with Jarquez Hunter. I expect a close, hard-fought game but right now I believe in Arkansas more and think they get this win outright on the road.
Arkansas 31
Auburn 26
The Waco Kid: Auburn is a trash panda team, but Arkansas has those same black rings around the eyes after losing to the mullet man himself. Oklahoma State pulled out the win against the Razorbacks but the Tigers lost to Cal. Cal…. Let that sink in. A team with featured running back Jarquez Hunter lost to the Golden Bears. When the heck have you ever seen a Golden Bear? Maybe the last time they were relevant only because of Aaron Rodgers and then Marshawn Lynch? Get out of here with that. Woo Pig Sooie all day in this matchup.
Arkansas 24
Auburn 17
Bossman: Had Vandy won last week, there may have been more to talk about for this game. Unfortunately, the Commodores reverted back to the mean against Georgia State, falling on the road 36-32. Mizzou won a gritty battle against upstart Boston College and look like they could live up to the top 10 hype with some seasoning. Vanderbilt is giving up over 200 yards through the air while Brady Cook and the Tigers attack is posting nearly 300 yards a game passing. Mizzou has one of the best defenses in the SEC, Vandy one of the worst offenses. You can do the math, especially with this one at Farout Field. Mizzou covers.
#7 Mizzou 45
Vanderbilt 13
Hammer: What a story Vandy was to begin the season. Diego Pavia injected confidence and swagger into a program that desperately needed it, jumping out to a 2-0 start. That all came crashing down last weekend as Georgia State upset the ‘Dores 36-32. Georgia State is a pesky sunbelt team, but should not have beaten Vandy. The Commodores defense was far too leaky last week, allowing 426 yards, which does not bode well for their matchup against Mizzou, who has weapons all over the field. The Tigers got their first real test last week against BC and handled their business, although they did not play well enough to cover. They looked like a team who was playing in their first real game, as the first two weeks against Murray State and Buffalo were glorified scrimmages. I like Mizzou to win here, especially at home but I’m torn on whether they cover or not. I expect Mizzou to score with veteran Brady Cook and weapons like Luther Burden, Theo Wease, Mookie Cooper, etc so Vandy will need to score here too in order to cover this spread. I’m going to give Diego Pavia and company one more chance and pick them to cover just cause I like how Pavia plays and I think they can keep this below 21 points.
#7 Mizzou 38
Vanderbilt 20
The Waco Kid: Dumb one, top 10 team against Vandy. How about a top 150 team against the ‘Dores then we will talk. Maybe they beat a VT team but who cares? You’re back in the SEC and playing one of the top four defenses in my opinion. Mizzou is playing great and will continue to against a horrible Vanderbilt defense.
#7 Mizzou 35
Vanderbilt 10
Bossman: Game of the week right here. I can’t wait for this one. The Vols are playing lights out right now and the Josh Heupel offense is operating with the throttle down. He’ll be ready to take the Vols into his alma mater’s home territory, the place he was unceremoniously fired from in 2014. Barry Odom called Heupel a “stone-cold killer,” in an ESPN piece this week. We’ll get to see if that’s the case at 7:30 ET in Norman. Tennessee has the best defense in the SEC to go along with the second-best offense. For an Oklahoma team that hasn’t produced at a high clip against inferior competition through three weeks, I’m not sure the Sooners can muster the offense to keep up with Big Orange. Both QBs have had some turnover issues, so winning the turnover battle will be critical. Tennessee’s secondary was a big question mark entering the year, but through three games they have stepped up. We’ll see if that continues on Saturday night, but in the end, I think this Vols offense has too much gas for Oklahoma to keep up with. Give me UT to cover.
#6 Tennessee 28
#15 Oklahoma 20
Hammer: Welcome to the SEC, Sooners. This is the kind of game SEC fans were talking about when they wanted Texas and Oklahoma how much tougher this league will be. This is the first time since 1998 that Oklahoma is a touchdown underdog at home. They went 25 years in the Big 12 without being this big of a home underdog, which partially speaks to how good and consistent the Sooners have been, but also how average the Big 12 is. Tennessee has looked awesome so far this year, but the Vols began the year with the 6th best odds to win the SEC. So the 6th favorite in the SEC is a touchdown favorite over Oklahoma in Norman. It’s a new era. Add in the fact that Josh Huepel went to OU, won a national title as their QB, and then was fired after the 2014 season as OU’s offensive coordinator, this game has all the storylines. So can OU win this game? I doubt it. Jackson Arnold and the Sooner offensive have been clunky and inconsistent thus far, ranking 108th in the FBS. Tennessee’s defense has looked excellent, but their secondary is what most consider the weakest link. I don’t think Arnold is ready to expose that, especially with the Vol’s vaunted defensive front. I am fascinated to see how Nico handles his first true road start in a hostile environment against a good defense. The Sooner defense is capable of giving Tennessee’s high-powered offensive trouble, but how much trouble is the key because I struggle to see how OU scores more than 21 points in this game. In my mind, that won’t be enough to keep pace. Give me the Vols to win and cover.
#6 Tennessee 31
#15 Oklahoma 20
The Waco Kid: I decline to make comments based on my Sooner fiancé. Vols by 14 but I’ll be nice and say 13.
#6 Tennessee 48
#15 Oklahoma 35
Other games on the slate:
Kentucky vs. Ohio - 12:45 ET on SEC Network
#25 Texas A&M vs. Bowling Green - 7:30pm ET on ESPN+
South Carolina vs. Akron - 7:30pm ET on ESPNU
#5 Ole Miss vs. Georgia Southern - 7:45pm ET on SEC Network
#1 Texas vs. ULM - 8:00pm ET on ESPN+
