B&S Week 4 game-by-game previews 2023
We got our first bite of the SEC schedule last week. It heats up in Week 4 with some huge matchups.
By: Bossman Slim, Hammer, Waco Kid
The “weak slate” last week turned into anarchy. We’ve got a stronger slate in the SEC and around the country this week, so we’re looking forward to another great weekend of college football. But let’s be real, any Saturday full of football is a good day. Until your team loses, then it’s the worst day, but still somehow a great day.
Here’s where the crew stands through three weeks:
Bossman continues to lead the pack in both categories, but it’s close. His Mizzou pick over K-State last week gave him the upper hand in the straight-up column. Thank you Harrison Mevis. The betting services are wondering how many times they’ll get to teach Waco Kid a lesson this year. They’re happy to keep taking his cash, though.
Let’s pick’em.
Bossman Slim: Big, big matchup in College Station. To those outside the SEC, this one may be a noon sleeper. But to those of us who live and breathe SEC football, we know what’s at stake. Jimbo Fisher cannot afford to lose a game to an SEC West foe at home with a first-year head coach and a thin roster. If Hugh Freeze can walk into College Station and grab an upset win, Auburn is 4-0, playing with confidence, and immediately hot on the recruiting trail. The stakes couldn’t be higher. The Tigers aren’t as talented or as deep as the Aggies, but make no mistake, they can win this game. I expect Freeze to empty the bag to try and get a big win at A&M. Truth is though, I just don’t think they have the horses yet to beat this Aggie team. A&M’s biggest concerns through three games have been O-line play, lack of D-line pass rush, and the secondary. I expect Auburn to follow the Miami blueprint and bring a myriad of pressures, especially utilizing surprise stud LB Eugene Asante. The Tigers also must have Jarquez Hunter healthy, and I’m not sure he’s going to be 100%. The Aggies are healthy right now and I don’t think the Tigers have enough of a passing game yet to take advantage of A&M’s weaknesses in the secondary. Give me A&M to get a nice win and cover as they pull away in the fourth quarter.
Texas A&M 35
Auburn 24
Hammer: At some point, the Aggies have to start winning games like this right? Since the start of 2021, Texas A&M is 8-11 against power five competition (this doesn’t even include the loss to App State). So how many more times can the Aggies come up short before this team finally starts playing like a team with their backs against the wall? I’m getting tired of counting on them to play up to their talent level. Conner Weigman has been a bright spot so far in 2023, leading the offense to far better results this year compared to prior years. Surprisingly, I trust A&M’s offense to score in this one but the defense gives me pause. I’m not convinced that Hugh Freeze has enough weapons on offense to take advantage of the Aggies, but Payton Thorne is a decent QB and Freeze knows offense. He will scheme guys open in this game, it's just a matter of whether Thorne can hit them or if A&M’s defensive front can get pressure. That is the matchup in my mind. Auburn and Texas A&M will struggle to run the ball in this one. I would be surprised if either tea eclipsed 150 yards rushing. So it's on the QBs, and I trust Weigman to make plays downfield more than Thorne. That said, the Aggies don’t tackle well in space so to avoid a repeat of Miami, DJ Durkin has to find a way to generate pressure. If the A&M defense can get to Thorne, make him uncomfortable, and force a turnover or two, they will win. If Durkin continues to play vanilla defense with very limited, straightforward blitzes, then Auburn could win this one. I think the Aggies pull it out since it's at home, but this will be an SEC West dog fight.
Texas A&M 28
Auburn 24
Waco Kid: Another good game on the docket for Saturday, this one will show who has a chance to compete for the conference and which team will hang around the middle for another year. Texas A&M is playing some great offense, Weigman is spreading the ball around and it seems he has a never-ending plethora of receivers to choose from. The rushing attack has also been able to find some lanes and hit holes hard. Bobby Petrino has this group trending in the right direction but the last time they played a decent team, Miami was able to make the Aggies look silly. The defense is holding opposing squads to an average of 23 points per game and that is skewed by the Canes offense putting up 48. Auburn is coming off a three-game winning streak but is playing a much better team this weekend than they have the first three weeks. Still, there is something surrounding Hugh Freeze that is allowing him to compete in the West and put together some wins. The Tigers made a good call bringing him back into the SEC, but it’s now time to see if their decision is going to pay dividends. Welcome back Freeze, hope you enjoy melting in College Station.
Texas A&M 42
Auburn 31
Bossman Slim: Vandy got a few nice wins last year in conference play and it seemed like they had momentum heading into 2023. Unfortunately, after a couple of key transfers and losing LB Anfernee Orji to the NFL, it’s been an uphill battle so far this season with stinging losses to Wake Forest and a weak UNLV team. Kentucky is still trying to figure things out after three weeks of cupcake games. Liam Coen and Devin Leary are not yet on the same page, with Leary looking uncomfortable at times and the Wildcats getting off to slow starts against inferior competition. Good news for UK, Vanderbilt is also inferior competition, even if they are a step up from Akron, Ball State, and the Little Sisters of the Poor. Through three games, the UK defense has nine sacks but has forced five turnovers. Vandy has eight turnovers on the season and their offensive line has allowed nine sacks. Do the math. I think this Kentucky defense gets home early and often, forces a few turnovers and Kentucky covers the spread as Leary and Coen start figuring things out.
Kentucky 38
Vanderbilt 21
Hammer: After a promising finish to the 2022 season, Vandy hoped to be a team that would build off of that in 2023. Then came a tough loss to Wake Forest followed by an inexcusable loss to UNLV under the Runnin’ Rebels new coach Barry Odom. The ‘Dores momentum is gone and Kentucky won’t lose this game two years in a row. The Wildcats have been underwhelming so far at times, getting off to very sluggish starts on offense against interior competition but they are better than Vandy. Former Commodore Ray Davis has unsurprisingly been productive for Kentucky, and the talent out wide is bound to get open against Vandy. Even if Kentucky still starts slow, they will find a way to beat Vandy. I picked Vandy to lose every SEC game pre-season, and nothing they have shown so far makes me worried about that prediction.
Kentucky 38
Vanderbilt 20
Waco Kid: Vandy is back!! And not in the way people think Texas is back. No, finally we get to see the normal Commodores struggling to tie their shoes, much less stop anyone on defense. I’m here for it. I mean what is the SEC without a horrible Vanderbilt team? I’ll tell you, not good for the brand. The ‘Dores pride themselves on mediocrity in all things football and have a rich tradition of being bowl-ineligible. If we can’t count on this inevitability the football world as we know it would collapse. Yet, this year we will not see the demise of such a world and all is right. Who knows maybe Georgia and Bama will be playing for the conference in Atlanta and send the nation back into a hissy about the same teams always being good. Kentucky’s Devin Leary is starting to look like a certified SEC quarterback and Vanderbilt will not be the team to slow that roll. Kentucky covers and probably makes this a snoozer of a game.
Kentucky 42
Vanderbilt 23
Bossman Slim: Like Chris Farley once said in “Black Sheep,” I have “no idea” about this one. I’m totally torn. Alabama’s history has me leaning Tide, but I did that with them against Texas and got burned. On the other hand, Ole Miss is playing solid football right now and Jaxson Dart has played well through three games. Two things give me pause for Ole Miss: This is the 3:30 CBS game at Bryant-Denny and the team is banged up. The Tide don’t look like the Alabama of old, but they’re still loaded and this defense is no slouch. The Rebels need all hands on deck to walk out of Tuscaloosa with a win and send the Tide program and fanbase into a tailspin. The Rebels defense has been giving up a ton of yards this year while the offense has carried them. I think everyone in the country expects Pete Golding to load the box and dare Jalen Milroe to beat them with his arm by intermediate passing routes, playing two high and keeping everything in front of them. With Golding and Kiffin knowing the halls of Alabama like the back of their hand and a Jaxson Dart-led offense humming, give me the Rebels to squeak by in a massive upset.
#15 Ole Miss 34
#13 Alabama 31
Hammer: What a matchup we have here. Storylines abound heading into this game, and depending on the result, sweeping conclusions and hot takes will be spewed after the final whistle blows. From the Ole Miss side, it's clear that Alabama is vulnerable. The Tide have already lost and have no offensive identity behind a shaky offensive line and below-average QB play. Ole Miss has a strong front seven that gets after the QB, so advantage Rebels. Jaxson Dart is playing like one of the best QBs in the country through three games, and he will need to be spectacular in this one. The Rebels offensive line has struggled as well and if Ole Miss can’t get Judkins going on the ground, everything will fall on the arm (and legs) of Dart. Alabama’s defense will give Ole Miss fits if they can stop the run, especially with how dinged up Ole Miss is. Tre Harris, Quinshon Judkins, Caden Prieskorn, and Zakhari Franklin all have been, or were supposed to be offensive weapons for Ole Miss this year, but they are all battling injury. Lane seems optimistic in that group playing, but how healthy will they be? It could be the difference in this game. I’m really torn here because my eyes tell me that Ole Miss is the better team right now. But in the back of my head, I’m still scarred by years and years of Alabama ripping out the heart of any team that dares think they can compete with Alabama. The media is certainly doubting the Tide and so you know Saban will have his guys juiced up to play this one at home. I could see it going either way, but if not now for Ole Miss, then when? Lane knows Alabama, Pete Golding knows Alabama, and they have the better QB in this game. I’ll roll with the Rebels to pull off a wild upset, although I already feel like a fool for picking against Alabama at home.
#15 Ole Miss 26
#13 Alabama 23
Waco Kid: This is by far the game of the week. Texas A&M vs Auburn should be a fun one too but this matchup has big-time West implications. Bama can either continue their dominance in the West or lose to disgraced coach Lane Kiffin. The problem is Ole Miss has the firepower to outgun the Tide offense should it come to that. We’ve already seen one team this season do it and Texas is still bound to lose to some mid-tier Big 12 team. With the problems Saban’s offense is having they may find it tough to find the end zone. I so badly want to pick Mississippi but until Kiffin pulls off the upset over his former mentor, I’m not betting against good ol’ Nick. Bama wins, it won’t be pretty, but it should be a heck of a contest to watch.
#13 Alabama 27
#15 Ole Miss 21
Bossman Slim: The US Department of Defense is worried about hypersonic missile technology that adversaries like China and Russia have mastered. On a much more serious note, Arkansas needs their own Rocket in the worst way. While AJ Green has filled in nicely for the Hogs, Rocket Sanders is a game-changing talent who can’t be replaced. If he plays against LSU, the Hogs can pull off this upset with a few right bounces of the ball, and at the very least I think they can cover. Without him, I think that spread is dead on. This Arkansas team is not as bad as their loss to BYU might seem. The Razorbacks shot themselves in the foot repeatedly in that game with penalties and turnovers. If they can clean that up, they have a real shot. The bad news for the Hogs is that this LSU team is brimming with confidence after disposing of Mississippi State in Starkville last week and getting back on the right track after the opening night loss to FSU. Jayden Daniels and Malik Nabers are lighting up the stat sheet and the LSU defense has battened down the hatches, making Mississippi State look like a G5 team. I think Arkansas can do more damage to this LSU defense than the Bulldogs, but I think LSU is just a better team right now. I’ll take LSU by 14.
#12 LSU 38
Arkansas 24
Hammer: Things are off to an odd start in both Fayetteville and Baton Rouge, with both teams dropping an out-of-conference game. LSU has looked great since getting whipped in their opener against FSU. Arkansas, meanwhile, played with their food against lesser opponents in weeks one and two and then got beat by BYU at home last weekend in a less-than-inspiring performance. If Jayden Daniels and the LSU offense play like they did a week ago, this one won’t be close. Arkansas has been better this year on defense, with a strong showing from their defensive line through three games, but LSU will be their biggest test to date. On the other side of the ball, the Razorback offensive line has struggled and I expect the Tiger front seven to be in the backfield all night. Maason Smith, Mekhi Wingo, and Harold Perkins should wreak havoc in the Hogs backfield. Rocket Sanders missed last week's loss to BYU, and he should return for this game. It’s hard to imagine him finding much running room in this one though. For Arkansas to win at night in Baton Rouge, KJ Jefferson would need to have a career night, and this offense under Dan Enos isn’t clicking on all cylinders so that won’t happen. It’s Baton Rouge at night so give me the Tigers to win and cover.
#12 LSU 42
Arkansas 24
Waco Kid: LSU all day. It’s 50/50 whether or not Rocket Sanders plays, but even if he does I do not think he is enough to take the Razorbacks to the promise land against the Bayou Bengals. The Tigers are playing at a much higher level right now. This would be a tall task for any SEC team, let alone one that is coming off a loss to BYU. Arky should not have lost to an inferior team - in Fayetteville no less - but that is something we have come to expect from this program (Liberty was not long ago, after all). KJ Jefferson has been playing great at quarterback, he’s big, strong, and can whip the rock. But LSU plays very well on defense and Jayden Daniels has them on a roll on offense. This is too much for Sam Pittman and company to handle. LSU wins but I do not think they cover.
#12 LSU 24
Arkansas 10
Bossman Slim: Looking at the issues for each of these teams it’s like they’re looking in the mirror. Bad offensive line play? We got that. Porous secondary? Look no further. New offensive coordinator having trouble gelling? You found the right place. It was impressive what South Carolina was able to do against Georgia, and I do think Dowell Loggains is starting to figure out how to use Spencer Rattler behind this offensive line. Rollouts, get the ball out quick, find Xavier Legette. One thing that is different about these two teams is the running game. Mississippi State was bottled up by LSU but ran well in their first two contests. South Carolina hasn’t been able to establish the run this year and on defense, they have one of the worst rush defenses in the conference. Losing Juice Wells hurts for this Carolina team and I think Mississippi State will be able to establish the run, but in the end, I think Spencer Rattler is playing at a high level and he’s able to do enough to get a W in a sold-out night game at Williams-Brice.
South Carolina 31
Mississippi State 27
Hammer: Well, what to do with this one? Mississippi State just got boat raced at home by LSU and their offense looked anemic. South Carolina, on the other hand, is just 1-2 overall but played solid against Georgia and UNC is no pushover. Mississippi State appears dead set on running the football under the new staff’s overhauled offense. They should have more success against South Carolina, who is 13th in the SEC in rush defense at 146 YPG, than they did against LSU, but I don’t think it will be enough. Spencer Rattler is battling hard so far this year and he’s making plays. The Gamecocks run game is nonexistent thanks to their poor offensive line and Rattler gets little to no protection, but he’s still finding ways to make plays. If we learned anything from a week ago, it's that Mississippi State’s secondary can be had. I like Rattler to make some throws in this one. And not to be overlooked, but this game is at night in Williams-Brice Stadium. That place is going to be absolutely rocking and South Carolina is desperate to get a win. Going 1-3 is not an option, so I like the Gamecocks to emerge with a win.
South Carolina 27
Mississippi State 23
Waco Kid: After a tough loss to LSU, Mississippi State is looking to get back on track against a South Carolina team that has been playing well but is still sitting at 1-2. The Bulldogs didn’t just lose last weekend, Brian Kelly’s squad took them to church and left Starkvegas in a state of chaos. Jayden Daniels exposed the maroon defense in every way possible, while the offense stalled on many of their drives. On the other side Spencer Rattler has been playing lights out this season outside of some expected turnovers against the Georgia defense. Unfortunately, the rest of the South Carolina team, sans Xavier Legette, looks like a bunch of scrubs in SEC uniforms. I can’t say I have a clear choice in this one, it really could go either way depending on the Bulldog backfield. If Rogers and Marks can get it going, it’s going to be a long day for Shane Beamer’s team. I think they have a lot to prove and see the Bulldogs winning a close-fought battle.
Mississippi State 24
South Carolina 20