B&S Week 5 game-by-game previews 2023
All SEC all the time. Massive in-conference matchups headline this week’s slate.
By: Bossman Slim, Hammer, Waco Kid
We’re four games into the 2023 season and things still seem wide open in the SEC. I can’t remember a time when this many teams felt like they had a legitimate chance to make it to Atlanta. Everyone is still in the hunt even (statistically) Vandy, so keep your eyes and ears pinned over the next few weeks. It’s going to be a helluva ride.
Here’s where the crew stands heading into Week 5:
Bossman is still the class of the crew, but he’s barely ahead in both columns and could easily get overtaken with a good week from either Hammer or Waco Kid.
Waco Kid is AWOL but gave us his scores…Let’s get to it.
Bossman Slim: The rubber meets the road. We really don’t know how good Kentucky is even though they’re 4-0, because their schedule has been softer than a Shane Beamer presser after a loss. Before Mark Stoops arrived in Lexington, Florida won what feels like 100 straight in this SEC East matchup. UK didn’t win a game in this series from 1987-2017, which is mind-boggling. In 2018, Kentucky broke the curse and has since gone 3-2 against the Gators, including two straight. Gators are pretty sick of hearing about how good Kentucky is and they sure don’t like that the Wildcats now feel like a peer. This season, both of these teams look mediocre. Florida got a big win over Tennessee and then went back to daycare against Charlotte (hat tip Biff Poggi, star of HBO’s “The Cost of Winning”), getting a win but not looking impressive, to say the least. Kentucky has been notching wins but it has left much to be desired and Devin Leary hasn’t quite been in sync yet with Liam Coen. I really don’t know which way to go in this one, I think it will be a really tight game with two solid defenses. In the end, I think Florida’s defense does just enough to win, turning Devin Leary over twice.
#22 Florida 24
Kentucky 20
Hammer: What an interesting matchup we have here. Florida, left for dead after Utah dominated them, has clawed their way back to 3-1 and a #22 ranking thanks to a big home win against Tennessee. Meanwhile, Kentucky is unbeaten but very much under the radar. They haven’t really played anyone of note, and they haven’t always looked great, but they have a zero in the loss column. And Vegas has the Wildcats favored here! Based on how my picks have gone so far, I’m going to go against my gut in this one. My gut says that Florida is a pretty good team that played poorly in Week 1. I like Etienne and Johnson in the backfield and Graham Mertz has been solid. Far from great, but solid. The Gators defense has looked good as well, holding Tennessee’s high-powered attack to 16. All that said, I’ll roll with Kentucky. It’s a home game and despite the early start, Kroger Field will be rocking and I’m not betting against Stoops at home. Maybe this Kentucky offense has been holding out and is waiting to unleash on the Gators. That is wishful thinking, but it's certainly possible that a few wrinkles have been kept under wraps given the poor competition Kentucky has faced.
Kentucky 23
#22 Florida 20
Waco Kid:
#22 Florida 35
Kentucky 28
Bossman Slim: This is another one that’s shaping up to be a squeaker. Would it be any different for a Southwest Classic? Since this series resumed in 2009, A&M has dominated the record, going 10-4 against the Hogs. However, that’s a little misleading. Eight of the 14 games played since 2009 have been decided by a touchdown or less, and A&M won three games in OT and multiple games came down to the final minute. That includes last year's thriller that saw Arkansas hit an “oink doink” off the top of the upright to lose 23-21. A&M will be without Conner Weigman, who is out for the season with a broken foot. Instead, they’ll turn to Max Johnson, who played well against Auburn and has a ton of SEC experience. Aggies shouldn’t fret too much with him at the helm. Arkansas is optimistic that Rocket Sanders could play on Saturday, which would be a huge boost for the Hogs against an Aggie rush defense that can be susceptible at times. I think KJ Jefferson will have a good day - he’s a top-tier QB in the country. However, this Aggie defense looks to be coming into their own, and this suspect Arkansas offensive line will have their hands full. The matchup that will dictate this game is Aggie freshman linebacker Taurean York and Edge Cooper vs. KJ Jefferson’s scrambling. I think A&M can do just enough to keep him at bay. Give me the Aggies by the hair of their chin in yet another nail-biter.
Texas A&M 34
Arkansas 30
Hammer: Sad news heading into this game as A&M QB Conner Weigman was officially ruled out for the remainder of the season with a broken foot. Max Johnson was the presumed starter for this weekend even before that news broke, but it's still notable and unfortunate for the Aggies. Max Johnson is the most proven backup QB in this conference, which is good news for A&M. He made 17 starts in two seasons at LSU and started two games for the Aggies last year, including the win over Arkansas, before breaking his hand. For his career, Johnson has been good, completing 376 of 625 passes (60.2%) for 4,627 yards and 42 touchdowns with 7 interceptions. So A&M isn’t dead yet, they can beat the Hogs with Johnson behind center. They are going to need him to play well of course, and they also need the defensive front to play like they did against Auburn. KJ Jefferson is a really good QB and he will expose your defense if you don’t get pressure and stay disciplined with your lanes to prevent him from escaping the pocket. Make the walls close in on him, otherwise, he will make you pay. The Razorback defense is still vulnerable so I expect them to have trouble with A&M’s talented wide receivers. Neither team has been very proficient running the ball so far this year, and I think that could be different in this game. Whatever team is able to maintain possession by running the ball with success will be in the driver’s seat. Despite losing Weigman, I like the Aggies to win here but this game is always close so give me Arkansas to cover.
Texas A&M 30
Arkansas 26
Waco Kid:
Texas A&M 28
Arkansas 27
Bossman Slim: I’ll get right to it: give me Georgia to cover. The Bulldogs look more vulnerable than they have in a few years, but Auburn is not the team to challenge them. Statistically, Texas A&M has a middling defense in the SEC so far this season and Auburn made them look like they had Pro Bowl defense running around out there. The Tigers have not figured out the QB position yet, but it looks like Hugh Freeze is going to roll with Peyton Thorne for another week. If this was Vandy, I’d be optimistic and feel like Thorne could have a bounceback, confidence-builder game. But it’s not, this is big-boy football. This is the dang Georgia Bulldogs with a top-10 defense in the country. Auburn’s defense isn’t anything to slouch at either, so that’s the good news, especially with Carson Beck who has yet to wow anyone through four games. It won’t matter though, Georgia is too talented and Auburn’s offense is anemic. Hugh Freeze will have Auburn competing in games like this soon, but today is not that day. Bulldogs, big.
#1 Georgia 34
Auburn 13
Hammer: Having this game at home is big for Auburn. They always play well at home and Jordan-Hare is a really tough place to play for visiting teams. Unfortunately for Auburn, they do not have an offense. After what A&M did to that unit, I don’t see how the Tigers move the ball on Georgia. Sure, Georgia’s defense so far this year hasn't necessarily looked as elite as they have the last few years, but they are still a top 10 unit in the country. Auburn does not have the QB, offensive line, or skill position players to score on a defense like Georgia. Auburn’s defense is pretty solid and could give the Dawgs some fits early. But similar to the A&M game, they won’t be able to hang for a full four quarters because their offense is leaving them out to dry. Expect this one to be close at half before UGA strangles Auburn into submission and they tap out.
#1 Georgia 28
Auburn 6
Waco Kid:
#1 Georgia 54
Auburn 17
Bossman Slim: I’m starting to get giddy…I picked Mizzou to go 8-4 and break that .500 ceiling in our preseason preview. We’re halfway home, Tigers, and the Mizzou ceiling looks like nine or ten games if they can go on a Cinderella run. I’m sticking pat at 8-4, but they’ll get to 5-0 this weekend. The Tigers are a little banged up and it’s questionable whether Brady Cook, Luther Burden, Ennis Rakestraw Jr., and Darius Robinson will play on Saturday. Vandy is banged up too, as QB AJ Swann is battling an elbow bruise and is questionable to suit up. With Swann, Vandy had a slim chance. Without Swann, Vandy has no chance. Ken Seals is the backup and he’s been at Vanderbilt for 15 years. He’s more of a runner than Swann, so that will present its own set of challenges for the Mizzou defense, but this Mizzou team is humming right now. I really like where this team is at. I think the Tigers cover and get a big win to get to 5-0, the first time they will have done so since 2013 when they won the SEC East.
#23 Missouri 42
Vanderbilt 28
Hammer: Is Mizzou the second-best team in the SEC East? I’m not quite there yet, but credit where credit is due: Drinkwitz has this team playing good football. Brady Cook is questionable for this game along with Luther Burden. Vandy isn’t good, but Mizzou needs those two to play in this one. I’ve been tough on Brady Cook here over the last year or so and he deserves a ton of credit for how he’s played this fall. Cook is completing 72% of his passes this year and has thrown for 1,073 yards, seven touchdowns, and no interceptions so far this year. That is good QB play and he’s proven to be a tough leader for this team. Assuming he and Burden can go this weekend, the Tigers should handle business. AJ Swann is questionable for the ‘Dores with an elbow issue but even if he can play, I don’t trust this Vandy team to figure out a way to get this win. Like Vanderbilt’s stadium, their football team’s rebuild is still very much a work in progress.
#23 Missouri 37
Vanderbilt 24
Waco Kid:
#23 Missouri 28
Vanderbilt 17
Bossman Slim: This one is gonna be a whole lot of fun. I’m going to pretend like I didn’t get burned by the Lane/Rebels hype last weekend to look at this one objectively. LSU is looking like the class of the SEC West, but they got all they could handle from Arkansas last weekend. I’m expecting an old-fashioned OK Corral shootout in this one. Both defenses are giving up big plays through the air, and both Jaxson Dart and Jayden Daniels will be able to take advantage of that. In the run game, LSU is giving up 132 YPG and Ole Miss is right in front of them with 125 YPG. The statisticians better have multiple boxes of Ticonderoga pencils sharpened, cause they’re gonna be busy. Last week, Jalen Milroe was able to throw for 225 yards and a TD against this Ole Miss secondary, much to my surprise. Jayden Daniels hasn’t thrown for less than 300 yards against meaningful competition this year. I think Daniels is able to have a big day for the Tigers through the air and on the ground, a Heisman-breakout-type game. Ole Miss will be a tough out even with heroics from Daniels, but give me the Tigers to get a big road win by a nod and cover.
#13 LSU 45
#20 Ole Miss 38
Hammer: I got fooled by Ole Miss last weekend and picked them to beat Alabama. They were soundly defeated. Yet here I am this week, ready to be fooled again. Similar to the Florida-Kentucky game, my gut tells me LSU will find a way to win this one. But I’ve been dead wrong about LSU all year. Just when I think they figure it out, they barely beat Arkansas at home at night. When I think they’re going to struggle, they throttle Mississippi State into oblivion on the road. Kiffin and this Ole Miss team are desperate and they should continue to get healthier. Dart is capable of throwing on this LSU secondary but he needs protection. The Rebel offensive line has been weak this year, but if they can give Dart enough time and Kiffin/Weiss can scheme enough open shot plays downfield for Dart, Ole Miss can win this one. On the other side, I like the Ole Miss front seven. They won’t allow LSU to run the ball and so back to typical LSU where the entire offense is on the shoulders of Jayden Daniels. I think any success LSU has on the ground will be from Daniels and it will be tough sledding for this LSU offense on the road. I’d love to see Judkins and this Rebel run game get going, but I don’t think it will happen this weekend. LSU’s front seven is too disruptive. As I’ve said all season, the SEC West is as wide open and competitive as I can remember. I’m not sure there is an “elite” team that will go to the CFP and compete for a title, but week in and week out I think these teams are going to beat the tar out of one another and I expect the same this weekend. Give me the Rebs to squeak one out at home.
#20 Ole Miss 31
#13 LSU 30
Waco Kid:
#13 LSU 45
#20 Ole Miss 42
Bossman Slim: Payback on my mind. I wanted to link to a tight rap song, but all I could find was this “Payback in My Mind (Steve Angello Mashup)” YouTube DJ. Still kinda a sick beat. Hell ya. Not sure how Biggie or Jay-Z didn’t throw down with that title. Anyway, Tennessee has had this one circled since the start of the season. Carolina absolutely demolished the Vols in Columbia last year as Tennessee was in the College Football Playoff hunt. Can they dash Volunteer hopes for a second year in a row? I like their chances. Spencer Rattler is playing like a man possessed, boasting a 74% completion percentage, passing for over 1,200 yards with a 7/2 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s arguably been the top QB in the SEC through four games. Tennessee has one of the top rushing offenses in the nation, but Carolina has been good against the run, giving up just 117 YPG. Expect the Gamecocks to load the box and force Joe Milton to beat them through the air. Here’s where the rubber meets the road: Tennessee’s front seven vs. Carolina’s O-line, and Tennessee’s pass defense. The Vols have LB Tyler Baron and DL James Pearce who like to camp in opponent’s backfields. I think the Vols will bring a ton of pressure and let their top four secondary in the SEC do some cleanup work. We know the Gamecocks can’t run. The final straw for me is the Gamecocks not having Juice Wells. With Wells, it might be a different story. Tennessee wins but the ‘Cocks cover.
#21 Tennessee 31
South Carolina 23
Hammer: This is a huge revenge game for Tennessee. The Vols fairy tale season came to an end last season in Columbia, SC at the hands of Shane Beamer, Spencer Rattler, and the mighty Gamecocks. The 63-38 beatdown South Carolina laid is one of the most surprising results in recent memory. Since that night, Vol fans have had this game circled. Their knives have been sharpened, waiting until those pesky Gamecocks show up in Neyland so they can finally right the wrongs of 2022. So can they get it done? South Carolina has been up and down so far this year, but Spencer Rattler has been playing out of his mind and they have been tested, playing UNC, Georgia, and Mississippi State already this year. Meanwhile, Tennessee has played the worst Power 5 team in UVA, two nobodies, and then lost to Florida. It’s clear the Vol offense is not what it was in 2022. The offensive lineman, wideouts, and Hendon Hooker have been tough to replace. The offense is fine, but it's not nearly as dynamic as it was a year ago. Based on how South Carolina is slinging the football all around the yard this year, the Vols will need to pump up the scoring in this one to win. Luckily for Tennessee, I expect Jabari Small and the Tennessee running game to find some room in this one. And if the Vols can run the ball, the entire offense opens up. I look for Tennessee to get long-awaited revenge here and take care of business.
#21 Tennessee 38
South Carolina 24
Waco Kid:
#21 Tennessee 38
South Carolina 34
Bossman Slim: Chuga……chuga…..chuga….chuga…chuga..chuga. You hear those train wheels churning faster? That’s the sound of the Tide starting their roll like Johnny Cash and the Rock Island Line. How long will it last? This season, your guess is as good as mine, but it will roll on for at least another week against Mississippi State. The Bulldogs showed some life Saturday past against South Carolina, and it looks like Kevin Barbay may have opened up the cannons, switching back to a pass-first offense that Will Rogers is more comfortable in. Look, here’s the deal, Clark. Mississippi State hasn’t beaten Alabama since 2007, Nick Saban’s first year in Tuscaloosa. John Parker Wilson was the QB at Bama and Barack Obama was president. The Bulldogs didn’t beat Alabama with Dak Prescott, they didn’t beat them during the Mullen years, and as they transition to be in the image of Zach Arnett, they won’t beat them this year. That’s especially true with a Tide defense that has been suffocating. Alabama takes another step to righting the course and covers with ease.
#12 Alabama 38
Mississippi State 17
Hammer: Under Mike Leach when Mississippi State was a pretty good, pesky team in the SEC, Alabama always murdered the Bulldogs. That won’t change under Zach Arnett. The Alabama defense is playing lights out right now and they are going to suffocate Cowboy Will Rogers and the State offense. I don’t see how they move the ball against Alabama. Offensively, Bama is clearly still trying to find out who they are. The revolving door at QB, a new offensive coordinator, and poor offensive line has left Tide fans searching for hope. Luckily for them, last week the offense seemed to find some sort of identity with Jalen Milroe cemented as the starter. Is it the dynamic offense full of first-round playmakers we’ve become accustomed to in Tuscaloosa? No. But they can get the job done with this defense behind them. Alabama wants to run the football with their stable of backs and try to ease Milroe into the game. Milroe is good for several poor throws and decisions per game, but he’s also athletic enough and throws a good enough deep ball to make highlight plays. If Tommy Rees can tailor this offense to Milroe, which he should be able to do, the Tide will be just fine, especially in this matchup.
#12 Alabama 31
Mississippi State 10
Waco Kid:
#12 Alabama 24
Mississippi State 14