B&S Week 5 game-by-game previews
Week 5 takes us into the meat of SEC play with great matchups headlining Saturday.
By: The Waco Kid, The Hammer, Bossman Slim
Kentucky gets a big boost as Chris Rodriguez Jr. returns to the backfield. (Photo via 247 Sports)
We said this in one of our newsletters this week: cherish the college football season. I know most of y’all do, otherwise, you wouldn't be reading this, but we are now in week 5. The season is one-third of the way done. It’s been wild, fun, chaotic and everything we would hope for so continue to cherish these Saturdays. And please, if you are a gambler, be responsible and fade all of us.
Let’s check out how the crew fared last week:
B&S Results through Week 4
We’re finally getting into the meat of conference play and there are five conference matchups this week. Some should be good games, others not so much. I’d rather watch UGA whoop Mizzou than Samford though, so bring on SEC play. The Waco Kid remains on IR, so Hammer and Bossman will carry the weight this week. Waco will be back soon.
#7 Kentucky at #14 Ole Miss - 12:00 ET on ESPN (Ole Miss -7)
Bossman Slim: Hallelujah for Chris Rodriguez being back, am I right Wildcats fans? This should be a great game and I think the Rebs are favored by 7 because this one is at Vaught-Hemingway. I think Vegas is wrong. The Wildcats will not be intimidated by the environment, and this veteran-led team will be ready under Mark Stoops. I think Kentucky is a more complete team right now, especially with Chris Rodriguez back to bolster the backfield. Will Levis has been turnover prone in his career, but he had a great week last week against Northern Illinois notching 4 TD passes through the air. Kentucky boasts the 4th best pass defense in the country and I think that solid secondary will shut down Jaxson Dart who has the talent but is still trying to figure it out. UK won’t be able to completely slow down the two-headed monster of Quinshon Judkins and Zach Evans, but they won’t be able to do enough to overcome this prepared and experienced Kentucky team…I just hope that Wildcats offensive line holds.
#7 Kentucky 27
#14 Ole Miss 24
Hammer: I really don't know what to make of this matchup, especially with Ole Miss being favored by 7 points. Kentucky is flawed but battle-tested, winning a game on the road in the Swamp week two. Ole Miss has played a cupcake schedule so far and hardly had to break a sweat. Kentucky will also get stud running back Chris Rodriguez back for this game, which could not come at a better time because Kentucky is dead last in the SEC in rushing and 123rd in the country, averaging just 2.4 yards per carry. Rodriguez is great at getting yards after contact, so he should help this struggling Wildcat ground game. How much though? Personally, I don’t think it will be quite enough. I see this game playing out similar to the Florida one where mistakes ultimately decide the game in an otherwise evenly matched contest. I’m not sold on Jaxson Dart at Ole Miss, who only recently secured the starting job, but I trust Lane Kiffin to manufacture some points against a good Kentucky defense. I’ll take Ole Miss to win in a close one, but Kentucky covers.
#14 Ole Miss 28
#7 Kentucky 24
The Waco Kid:
#7 Kentucky 31
#14 Ole Miss 24
#2 Alabama at #20 Arkansas - 3:30 ET on CBS (Bama -16.5)
Bossman Slim: I’m pumped for this one. Has Bama fully gotten over the Texas game? Are there still lingering issues that Arkansas can exploit? Can Alabama’s wide receivers finally step up and take advantage of that weak Razorback secondary? Que the SEC on CBS music. I think Arkansas will come out and throw a few punches early, but I like how Bama has responded since that scare in Austin. I expect Bryce Young to have a big day through the air, but Arkansas will be able to get pressure and keep this one close. Bama, but they won’t cover.
#2 Alabama 31
#20 Arkansas 21
The Hammer: Fascinating matchup here in Fayetteville. Arkansas needs to bounce back after a heartbreaking loss to Texas A&M. A blowout loss at home to Alabama would really put a damper on the Hogs. Meanwhile, Alabama has looked good since narrowly beating Texas, but has not truly been tested. Going against the reigning Heisman trophy winner with a leaky pass defense sounds like a recipe for disaster, but so far this year Alabama has not been nearly as explosive in the passing game as we’ve come to expect. That wide receiver corps is still finding its footing. Arkansas will need to take advantage of Alabama’s offensive line and put pressure on Bryce Young. It’s also worth noting that since Bryce Young took over as the starter to begin 2021, the Tide have struggled on the road. In his five true road starts, four have been decided by 3 points or less, and one of those was a loss at Texas A&M. So can Arkansas keep this one close? I think they can, but I don’t see them pulling off the upset. The Bama defense is playing really well and ultimately when you have Bryce Young on your team, it's hard to lose. Arkansas covers but Bama finds a way to win.
#2 Alabama 38
#20 Arkansas 31
The Waco Kid:
#2 Alabama 38
#20 Arkansas 20
#17 Texas A&M at Mississippi State - 4:00 ET on SEC Network (Miss State -3.5)
Bossman Slim: Since Texas A&M joined the SEC, this series is dead even with five wins a piece for each school. It’s been a helluva game every time these two teams have gotten together. In 2012, Johnny Manziel smoked the Bulldogs in Starkville putting another W in the books on his way to a Heisman. In 2016, Mississippi State spoiled Texas A&M’s first-ever top 4 ranking in the College Football Playoff rankings. Saturday’s matchup is set up to be another dog fight. Texas A&M has rebounded from their loss to App State, notching two straight top 15 wins. Mississippi State has a tough loss to LSU on their resume but got back on track last week against cupcake Bowling Green. The key here is Texas A&M’s secondary vs. Will Rogers. A&M boasts one of the best secondaries in the SEC. LSU is #2…A&M is #3. I think that spells trouble for the Bulldogs, and A&M is starting to figure it out and build confidence on offense. I don’t think Mississippi State has enough on defense to hold the Aggies, as their offense won’t score as often as they’re used to. The loss of Ainias Smith is huge for A&M, but I think we see the other talent for the Aggies step up. Expect the offense to run through Devon Achane. Aggies win in a close one.
#17 Texas A&M 26
Mississippi State 24
Hammer: Man, I love SEC conference play cause we’ve got another great matchup here in Starkville. The Aggies are coming off two top 15 wins since inexplicably losing to Appalachian State in week two. Mississippi State is 3-1 in their own right with some decent wins and a strange loss on the road to LSU. I went against the Aggies last weekend, and I’m not doing it again here. Playing a Mike Leach team on the road is never easy, hence why the Bulldogs are favored, but I like the matchup for A&M. The Aggies defense has been lights out, and their secondary is the strength of their team. Plus, DJ Durkin spent his last two years at Ole Miss so he’s really familiar with the Leach air raid. I think A&M can cover on the backend and make life hard for the Cowboy Will Rogers. Now, we know A&M’s offense is struggling and Mississippi State has a good defense, so this one will be close and could come down to turnovers, just like the Arkansas game did for A&M. But I trust Max Johnson here to take care of the ball and take what the defense gives him. I also feel good about Devon Achane getting loose a time or two because he seems to do so every game. Aggies cover and win outright.
#17 Texas A&M 24
Mississippi State 20
The Waco Kid:
#17 Texas A&M 31
Mississippi State 17
LSU at Auburn - 7:00 ET on ESPN (LSU -8)
Bossman Slim: It’s about time for Auburn to fold like a lawn chair. This LSU team has improved every week since their season-opening loss to Florida State. That Mississippi State win was an eye-opener and the defense was exceptional in that game. Auburn is on the ropes and LSU is on the rise. That spells trouble for Auburn, who is still relying on Robby Ashford at QB with TJ Finley out. Tank Bigsby is still a workhorse and the LSU rush defense does have some holes. But I don’t trust this offensive line for Auburn to get things going and protect Robby Ashford enough for War Eagle to pull out a win. I also expect the turnover trend to continue and the LSU defense to force a couple TOs. I like the Tigers - the Bayou Bengals - in this one. LSU to win and cover.
LSU 31
Auburn 13
The Hammer: This feels like the end of the Bryan Harsin era. It was reported before the Mizzou game that if Auburn lost, Harsin would be fired. Well, they won in overtime but assuming the report was true then it’s just a matter of time. And we all knew this was the case based on how the offseason went in Auburn. That program is a total mess, Harsin was never given a fair chance, and the boosters are just waiting for their opportunity. The guy is a dead man walking and who better to deliver the final nail in Harsin’s coffin than Brian Kelly? Jayden Daniels is playing well for LSU and they are just a better football team than Auburn right now. LSU defensive coordinator Matt House has the Bayou Bengals playing good defense, and it won’t take much to stop Auburn’s offense. Mizzou stopped them for goodness sake. I feel bad for Harsin, the Auburn players, and the Auburn fans but this team stinks and even a night game in Jordan-Hare won't stop the inevitable.
LSU 27
Auburn 13
The Waco Kid:
LSU 24
Auburn 17
#1 Georgia at Missouri - 7:30 ET on SEC Network (UGA - 27.5)
Bossman Slim: We just talked about Auburn’s woes…how about Missouri? The Tigers just lost to those reeling Auburn Tigers in heartbreaking fashion. Star freshman wideout Luther Burden also deleted all mentions of Mizzou from his social media last week and posted a cryptic “patiently waiting” message before backtracking on Twitter and saying “I’m always a TIGER.” Not good, Clark. The good news for Mizzou is they have a cupcake coming to Columbia this week. This issue is that they are that cupcake. Kirby Smart is going to have the Dawgs fired up after their lackluster performance last week against Kent State. I expect a massacre in Columbia as Georgia looks to reassert their dominance. Mizzou couldn’t stop the K-State offense, a team that scored 14 against TULANE. They won’t stop the Georgia offense, and that Dawgs defense will hold this weak Mizzou offense in check. Dawgs, big big.
#1 Georgia 45
Missouri 17
The Hammer: Poor Eli Drinkwitz and Mizzou. After a gut-wrenching loss a week ago to Auburn where their All American kicker missed a 26-yard field as time expired. To make matters worse, Mizzou fumbled while reaching for the pylon in overtime. What I’m saying is they handed that game to Auburn on a silver platter and now they have the unfortunate task of playing Georgia. Good luck! I don’t read much into the Kent State game last week for the Dawgs. It’s hard to play with high intensity every week and especially when the opponent is so overmatched. They were sleepwalking last weekend but I don't think they will be this week. Missouri will not have an answer for Brock Bowers and the UGA offense and we know Mizzou can’t move the ball well offensively against average defenses, let alone Georgia. Dawgs win big.
#1 Georgia 42
Missouri 10
The Waco Kid:
#1 Georgia 56
Missouri 27