Biscuits & SEC Week 11 game-by-game previews 2024
Two major showdowns headline Week 11, starting in Oxford with Georgia-Ole Miss, and capped with a night game in Baton Rouge with Alabama-LSU.
By: Bossman, Hammer
We are officially in the home stretch of the season now with just four weeks left. The SEC title and CFP races are heating up with Texas A&M suffering their first conference loss a week ago, and the initial CFP rankings being released on Tuesday. Both races seem to be relatively wide open with so many teams in the mix, making these final four weeks super exciting. There are some massive games on the slate this weekend and I can’t wait.
Picks-wise, the boys still need some help against the spread. But hey, you try to pick every SEC game against the spread. It ain’t easy. We’ll see if the Waco Kid can keep his lead in that department and possibly climb up above .500 on the year. Meanwhile, Bossman and Hammer are duking it out for the lead in straight-up picks. Let’s dive in.
Bossman: This one is tough to pick because a lot hinges on if DJ Lagway plays, and even if he does, is he going to be at full strength? If he does, I think Florida can cover this spread based on the effort and fight they’ve shown over the past few weeks. If he doesn’t, I don’t have much faith in transfer Aidan Warner to be able to cover this spread. It will make the Gators one dimensional and the Horns will eat them alive. Quinn Ewers has been turnover prone this season, and we saw last week that Florida can force turnovers. I think Florida has elevated their play enough to cover this spread, but I still think the Horns win comfortably at home.
#5 Texas 31
Florida 19
Hammer: This game comes down to whether or not DJ Lagway can play. And not only can he play, but how close to 100% will he be? After being carted off the field with a hamstring injury last week against Georgia, reports from Gainesville are that the injury is not as serious as they first thought and Lagway practiced on Wednesday. Unfortunately for Florida, their chances all ride on his health. Yale transfer Aidan Warner can’t win this game. No offense but he went 7/22 for 66 yards and a pick against Georgia. Even with Lagway, this is a big test for Florida, which is something they are used to with one of the most difficult schedules in the country. Texas is coming off a bye week and should have a good plan for this one. Quinn Ewers has looked off ever since he missed a few games due to an oblique injury, so the bye week should help him get right if there is any part of that injury lingering. Florida is scrappy and playing tough. If Lagway plays, and I am going to bank on him playing, I think they can cover this spread. But they don’t have enough juice to beat Texas in DKR. The Longhorns have too many weapons on offense and have been playing well defensively.
#5 Texas 31
Florida 17
Waco Kid:
#5 Texas 27
Florida 23
Bossman: Do you know? I don’t! Last year the Georgia Bulldogs took it to top-ten Ole Miss 52-17, taking them behind the woodshed with College GameDay in town. Will they do that again? I don’t think so. This is the best Ole Miss defense Lane Kiffin has had in his time in Oxford, as he went into the transfer portal in the offseason and significantly upgraded the talent on that side of the ball. It seems unlikely that we have a blowout coming down the tracks on either side. It looks like the rain could be a major factor in this one, which will likely limit both teams through the air. In most seasons, you would think that gives Georgia the advantage, but they’ve struggled to run the ball like we’ve come to expect from the Dawgs. Ole Miss is also the fourth best rushing offense in the SEC, so the rain might make it advantage Ole Miss. However…history shows us that it’s hard to bet against Georgia in a spot like this, even with the struggles we’ve seen form them this year. I think Kirby will have the Dawgs ready and they sneak by the Rebs in a close one.
#3 Georgia 24
#16 Ole Miss 23
Hammer: Man, I keep going back and forth on this game. It sets up so well for Ole Miss. It’s in Oxford, Jaxson Dart just threw for over 500 yards last week and this team was built with games like this in mind. Everything that Ole Miss did with NIL and the transfer portal was with games against teams like Georgia in mind. If not now for Kiffin and Ole Miss, when? Especially since Georgia looks as vulnerable as they have in years. Carson Beck has thrown 11 interceptions in his last 5 games. Trevor Etienne is banged up and likely won’t be 100% even if he plays. Georgia’s defense is still very good, but perhaps not as good as their defenses when they won championships. Let me reiterate, it all sets up for an Ole Miss. I’m just not ready to predict it. I have a hard time shaking what I saw from Georgia in that Texas game. That defense can still get after you, and Ole Miss doesn’t run the ball well. The lack of running game from Ole Miss will allow the Georgia front to pin their ears back and get after Jaxson Dart. I hate putting this much faith in Carson Beck but I am riding with Kirby and the Dawgs until Ole Miss and Lane Kiffin prove they can beat them.
#3 Georgia 24
#16 Ole Miss 21
Waco Kid:
#3 Georgia 34
#16 Ole Miss 12
Bossman: This is the SEC this season, a bunch of toss-up games. South Carolina dog walked Texas A&M last week in Williams-Brice Stadium, but now they have to go on the road against a feisty Vanderbilt team led by America’s sweetheart Diego Pavia. Vandy seems to keep getting teams in great spots where an upset is possible. The key to me in this game is to state the obvious: the South Carolina defensive line will cause havoc. They’ve done it all season, ranking second in the SEC in sacks and third in tackles for loss. Pavia is sneaky in the pocket and can make you pay if you over pursue, but Carolina bottled up Marcel Reed pretty well last week, and he’s a more dynamic runner than Diego Stones. I also like the development I’m seeing from LaNorris Sellers. Give me the boys from Carolina to win by a 10, but it’s a hard-fought game to the bitter end like every Commodores game has been this year.
South Carolina 30
Vanderbilt 20
Hammer: Another game I am torn on. I have been getting burned by Diego Pavia and betting against Vandy far too much. I was on his side the last two weeks against Texas and Auburn, but before that, I was getting burned repeatedly. And here I am, very tempted to bet against him again. South Carolina looked so good against Texas A&M last week and it’s hard to get that out of my mind. The Gamecocks had over 500 yards of offense against a good Aggie defense. I think LaNorris Sellers and Rocket Sanders will be tough to stop for Vandy. On the other hand, Pavia is great. He’s completely turned the Vandy program around. But this South Carolina defense has one of the best defensive lines in the country. If Dylan Stewart and Kyle Kennard stay disciplined and don’t get fooled by the veer-and-shoot style offense from Vandy, it could be a tough day for Pavia. That is easier said than done and plenty of good defenses and defenders have been fooled by the Vandy style. I expect Vandy to be competitive and keep it close but the vibes for South Carolina are too high right now. I’ll take the Gamecocks to win a close one and cover.
South Carolina 27
Vanderbilt 21
Waco Kid:
Vanderbilt 31
South Carolina 23
Bossman: No shade here to Mississippi State, but we don’t have to spend too much space on this one. The big question here is if Tennessee can cover this big spread. The Vols have struggled to cover the spread this season, but that’s been a trend around the SEC. Big spread? Bet against it. So that’s exactly why I’m betting on Tennessee to cover this spread! The Vols are due to get this offense going in a big way, and what better time to do that than playing a home night game against the worst defense in the SEC. GBO takes it to State and covers (barely).
#7 Tennessee 42
Mississippi State 17
Hammer: I keep waiting for Tennessee’s offense to break out, but they haven’t. I said the same thing about Ole Miss, and they scored 63 this past weekend. I think Tennessee has that potential, they just have yet to execute at a high enough level to score like that. This could be the game where they break out, especially given Mississippi State’s issues on defense. I’m not ready to take that leap of faith though. We are 8 games into the season, so I am going to take what Tennessee has shown so far this season and trust that this spread is too big. I think Nico will have a good game, and Dylan Sampson feels like he is always running for 150 yards and a few TDs. But I have a hard time seeing Tennessee getting out of the 30s here. And with Jeff Lebby leading the State offense, and QB Michael Van Buren at QB I like the Bulldogs to score enough here to keep it below the number. Plus, the Vols just might have one eye looking ahead toward their road trip to Athens next week.
#7 Tennessee 35
Mississippi State 14
Waco Kid:
#7 Tennessee 43
Mississippi State 21
Bossman: Hard to bet against LSU in a home game at night, but Alabama has shown that they own LSU in Tiger Stadium over the history of this rivalry. Still, this game looks like a tossup, and when it’s a tossup…it’s usually smart to take the home team. Garrett Nussmeier was roughed up against Texas A&M two weeks ago, and the Aggies ran all over this LSU defense. While Alabama has the talent to do the same thing A&M did and run it down the Tigers throats, their running game has been inconsistent this year. Rain could be a factor in this one too, which could make it a mud bowl and force both teams to run more than they’d like to. If it was a clean weather game, I would take LSU because I trust Nussmeier more right now than I do Jalen Milroe, but the rain makes me pause. I’m still going to take LSU, giving them the nod with it being in Tiger Stadium at night. Don’t let me down, BK.
#15 LSU 23
#11 Alabama 17
Hammer: Just like the Ole Miss vs Georgia game, I have flip-flopped on this one all week. On one hand, LSU’s defense has gotten gashed by running QBs this year. Jalen Milroe, when he is healthy and playing well, can devastate opponents with his legs. On the other hand, the Bama defense has been vulnerable this year and Garrett Nussmeier, along with the LSU skill players, is more than capable of taking advantage and getting chunk plays through the air. Alabama has struggled on the road this year as well, and Death Valley at night is one of the toughest places to play in the country. Tiger Stadium will be rocking as both teams must win to keep their SEC title and CFP dreams alive. Both of these teams are coming off a bye week as well, so they are rested and well-prepared. I just can’t shake what I saw from LSU against Texas A&M. I understand they did not prepare for Marcel Reed, but he only threw two passes in the second half against LSU, and put up 31 points. The zone read is not a new concept, regardless of what the LSU game plan was for that game, they should have been able to adjust. Blake Baker has undoubtedly devised a plan to limit Milroe’s legs for this game, but I am going to lean Bama here. Kalen DeBoer is a great big-game coach, and Brian Kelly is not that great. Even with two weeks to prepare, I expect Alabama to run the ball well here. Plus, the Tide still has Ryan Williams to beat LSU over the top. I don’t trust LSU to run the ball effectively, or even try to run the ball, so I could see Garrett Nussmeier having to throw the ball 40+ times here yet again, which is a bad recipe if you ask me. I’ll take Bama to win a tight one.
#11 Alabama 34
#15 LSU 30
Waco Kid:
#11 Alabama 56
#15 LSU 44
Bossman: Another tossup? Why not. I’ve been saying this since early in the year: I don’t think Missouri is a good football team this season. Neither is Oklahoma, but I think this is a favorable matchup for the Sooners, even on the road. It’s evident that Venables made a mistake by pulling Jackson Arnold early in the year, as most of the offensive issues can be attributed to that porous offensive line. Missouri ranks in the back half of the SEC in sacks and tackles for loss, so I don’t think they’ll be able to exploit OU’s biggest weakness, and when Arnold has time, he can make you pay. This also might be Oklahoma’s last chance to get bowl eligible, so Venables will have this team ready. I’ll take the Sooners.
Oklahoma 27
#24 Missouri 24
Hammer: Oh boy, this game makes me queasy. I don’t feel good about either team and you can see what Vegas thinks about Mizzou, who is an underdog to a bad OU team at home. Since firing offensive coordinator Seth Luttrell, and returning to Jackson Arnold at QB, Oklahoma has looked ever so slightly better on offense. Their offensive line is still awful but at least Arnold can throw the ball. It seems like the Sooners will get a few wide receivers back from injury as well. Meanwhile, Missouri is likely without starting QB Brady Cook and WR Mookie Cooper. Prayers up to those of us who will watch this game, but given Cook’s injury struggles I’ll take Oklahoma. Drew Pyne simply can’t get it done, especially against a solid Oklahoma defense. Give me the Sooners.
Oklahoma 21
#24 Missouri 17
Waco Kid:
Oklahoma 31
#24 Missouri 17
