Biscuits & SEC Week 8 game-by-game previews 2024
No slowing down in Week 8 with two massive matchups in the SEC.
By: Bossman, Hammer, Waco Kid
The last two weeks in the SEC have been absolutely wild. Upsets, overtime games, and nail-biters galore. I feel like we say this every year, but so far in 2024, it really feels like anyone can beat anyone in the SEC. Outside of perhaps Texas, who has looked great while not playing a tough schedule up to this point, there doesn’t appear to be an elite team in the SEC.
Given the week-to-week variance, it's not surprising our crew is struggling with picks against the spread this season. The Waco Kid has a solid three-game lead in that department, and Hammer is leading the way straight up by two games. Everyone is still within striking distance, so just one red-hot week could change the standings significantly.
Let’s hit the previews.
Bossman: It’s about time for Auburn to jump up and get someone. In their four losses, Auburn has lost by an average of 12.75 PPG. If you take out the loss to Georgia, who beat the Tigers by 18, they’ve lost the other three games by an average of 7.7 PPG. Against Oklahoma, the Tigers led by 11 in the fourth quarter and melted down. Clean up the turnovers, and this team will get someone. See Arkansas a few weeks ago against Tennessee, another team well known for shooting themselves in the foot. Against the Vols, Arkansas played ball control, tightened up on defense, and protected the football. I’m betting that Auburn can do that against Mizzou. I know this one is on the road and that will make it difficult for Auburn to get a W…but I’m just not sold on Missouri. They haven’t clicked once this year and something seems off. The blowout against A&M really opened my eyes. Give me Auburn to finally put a full game together off a bye week and take down Mizzou, knocking them out of the top 25.
Auburn 27
#19 Missouri 24
Hammer: This game started out with Mizzou favored by 6.5, and I was a lot more comfortable taking Auburn at that spread. It’s been bet down to 4.5, which feels more right to me. Auburn is 2-4 and struggled so much this year, mainly due to turnovers. They can’t stop turning the ball over. Meanwhile, Missouri just looks off. It’s been hard to put your finger on, but they don’t look like the 10-win team from a year ago, as evidenced by the butt-whipping they took in College Station two weeks ago. The Mizzou offense is still trying to find its rhythm, while the defense is solid they definitely miss the five defensive players who were drafted in the 2024 NFL Draft. After the debacle against A&M, Mizzou traveled to UMass last weekend and got a win 45-3. Given how bad UMass is, I’m not going to read much into that. With Auburn coming off of a bye, I am going to do something reckless and ride with Hugh Freeze and his team to cover. Jarquez Hunter should be the focal point of the offense in this game (and every game for Auburn). He is averaging 6.8 yards per carry through 6 games, but only averages 13 carries a game. If I was calling plays for Auburn, Hunter would get a minimum of 20 touches, and I think Auburn will lean heavily on him this weekend. I’m praying Payton Thorne will take care of the football, and if he can, this game will be a coin flip. Auburn’s defense should be able to limit Mizzou, and I just don’t trust that offense to be consistent right now. I hate picking Auburn but I’m going to call my shot and pick them to not only cover but get the upset outright.
Auburn 27
#19 Missouri 24
Waco Kid: Mizzou’s been a difficult to pin down this season, and Auburn looks like they’re still stuck in reverse trying to figure out their offense who can’t stop turning the ball over. Hugh Freeze is feeling the heat, and Drinkwitz is starting to feel it too, but MIZ is the more talented team here, and it’s at home. The only way Auburn keeps this close is if Missouri forgets how to tackle, and I just don’t see it. Give me Missouri by multiple scores —Auburn’s just here for the fall scenery.
#19 Mizzou 27
Auburn 10
Bossman: The first-ever meeting between these two programs should be interesting. Oklahoma’s defense is solid, but on offense, they couldn’t find the Eiffel Tower in the desert. Did they move on from Jackson Arnold too fast..? It’s quite possible. OU’s issues on offense are not on one man. The offensive line is porous, allowing 43 TFLs and 20 sacks through six games. That’s an average of 7.2 TFLs and 3.3 sacks per game. Not good. They’ve been missing their top five wide receivers at different points throughout the first half of the season, and that’s had a major impact, but the offensive issues are deep set. Deion Burks may be back for this game, but even he may not be able to pull this Sooner’s offense out of the doldrums. ESPECIALLY against a South Carolina defense that has been stout to this point in the year. The defensive front for the Gamecocks is playing out of their mind between Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart, who have combined for 11 sacks. I expect those guys to be in the backfield all day. I also trust South Carolina’s offense more in this one. The only thing that gives me pause is that it’s in Norman, but the Gamecocks just pushed Alabama to the brink in Tuscaloosa, so I’m riding with the Cocks.
South Carolina 24
Oklahoma 20
Hammer: I guess I am in the mood to pick upsets this week because I like South Carolina to win this game outright. Sorry to spoil my pick in the first sentence of this preview, but Oklahoma is awful. Their offense stinks to high heaven and studs like Kyle Kennard and Dylan Stewart on the Gamecock defensive line should feast in this game. The South Carolina offense is still hard to have a ton of faith in, but with the exception of the Ole Miss game, they have scored plenty of points. I don’t understand how, but they have. Oklahoma has a good defense, but so do other teams that the Gamecocks have played and scored points against. At this point in the year, LaNorris Sellers is battle-tested, Rocket Sanders is running hard, and I trust that unit to find ways to score in this game. I don’t trust Oklahoma to find ways to score, even if they get some of their wide receivers back from injury.
South Carolina 20
Oklahoma 17
Waco Kid: The Sooners are learning the hard way that SEC football ain’t just about one side of the ball. Gotta be a complete team to consistently win in this conference. South Carolina is struggling, but Shane Beamer’s squad is pesky and has nearly clipped Alabama and LSU this year. LaNorris Sellers give the Sooner faithful some moments to sweat, but with this one in Norman, I think OU finally figures a few things out on offense. Gamecocks keep it close for awhile but Boomer pulls away late.
Oklahoma 34
South Carolina 21
Bossman: Anyone got a cigarette? I’m gonna need a long drag before picking this one. Don’t worry, we can pass it around, Tide and Vols fans. I know you’re gonna need something to take the edge off, because neither fanbase is confident in their team right now. And as I said on SEC After Dark, I’m in the dark here. Both teams have the talent and explosiveness to go off, but the last few weeks they’ve had a stick in their spoke. Alabama’s offense is still scoring for the most part, though last week gave some pause. I think that was more a product of South Carolina having a stiff defense than major problems with the Bama offense. Instead, I’m looking at the defensive side of the ball. There are some eye-popping stats from the last few weeks. Bama is giving up an average of 437 YPG, 126 rushing YPG, and 311 passing YPG. The only thing that has saved them is turnovers, getting four apiece against UGA and South Carolina. Here’s another one: Vanderbilt - yes VANDERBILT - racked up 418 total yards, 42 minutes of possession, and went 12/18 on third down against the Tide. ???? Insanity. That is not supposed to happen in Tuscaloosa. The defense can’t get off the field. Luckily, they’re playing a Tennessee offense that is stuck in neutral with two tires in the mud. Nico hasn’t looked right for a few weeks now, making baffling decisions and showing shaky command of the offense. Against this Bama defense though, there are plays to be had. I also really like this Tennessee defense, the best unit thus far in Heupel’s tenure, which is currently third in total defense in the SEC. With this one being at home, I think the Vols do just enough to get a W against the Tide, but this one could be an ugly game to watch except for a few shot plays.
#11 Tennessee 28
#7 Alabama 27
Hammer: Another great matchup, and another game I have no clue how to predict. This game should be electric regardless of the outcome. Neyland will be on fire, and Kalen DeBoer will get yet another “welcome to the SEC” moment when he goes on the road for his first “Third Saturday in October.” Both teams have been shaky over the last couple of weeks and already have a loss on their resumes. Who knows how things will shake out with the 12-team playoff, but if you want to control your own destiny, don’t lose twice. No doubt that will be on both team’s minds in this one. It feels like a must-win for both sides. Alabama’s defense will present plenty of openings for the struggling Vol offense, but I don’t trust Nico to find those openings and exploit them just yet. With Nico, the talent is impossible to miss. But the application of that talent is lacking so far in SEC play. When the competition has gotten better, Nico has looked average at best. On the other side, Bama’s offense has looked good for most of the year, but they can’t run the ball well with their tailbacks. I’m fascinated to see DeBoer’s game plan on offense for this one because the Vols have a good defense, especially in the front seven. Bama might just completely cut Milroe loose and have him run 15 times and throw it 30+ times. At the end of the day, this game is a coinflip and I will side with Alabama simply because I’ve seen them do it more. I know this is not Saban’s team anymore and the new regime has returned mixed results, but I haven’t seen enough from Tennessee yet to believe they will win or cover this close spread.
#7 Alabama 24
#11 Tennessee 21
Waco Kid: You thought the Vols' win two years ago was the changing of the guard? Not so fast, my friend...the Tide got the best of the Vols last year, but now Nick Saban is out of the picture and Bama is vulnerable. Tennessee’s offense has been suspect the past two weeks, but so has Alabama’s. It’s going to be a fun “Third Saturday in October” because this one is a coinflip. Spooky things happen at night in Neyland, so I’ll take Tennessee, but I don’t feel great about it.
#11 Tennessee 31
#7 Alabama 28
Bossman: Hey hey now, Aggie fans. Don’t get ahead of yourselves. I don’t think you are, because remember, remember…2016. Since joining the SEC, Texas A&M is 2-4 in Starkville. The series is split an even 6-6. While A&M has had the better roster for the majority of those years, they’ve had serious struggles with Mississippi State. Jeff Lebby’s team also seems like they’re starting to find some footing. This team isn’t that good, don’t get me wrong, but they’ve now played two top-five teams in back-to-back weeks and held their own. Georgia was in control of the game last week, but that doesn’t diminish the fact that the Bulldogs put up 31 against this Georgia defense and had eight explosive plays, three of those 35+ yards. The Bulldogs rank #109 in the country in explosive plays, but they might be figuring it out with Michael Van Buren Jr. behind center. A&M is pretty stout on defense against explosive plays, ranking #30 in the country. The Aggies are also averaging 2.3 sacks and 6.7 TFLs per game. State is allowing 3.17 sacks and 6.2 TFLs a game. Do the math. I think A&M’s defensive front will be in the backfield all day against Mississippi State. At the end of the day, I think A&M is too much for Mississippi State, but the Aggies should not overlook this game. Under Mike Elko thus far, this team has been focused, and I expect him to have them dialed in on Saturday. Aggies cover with a late TD to put the Bulldogs away.
#14 Texas A&M 38
Mississippi State 20
Hammer: Mississippi State is feisty. Credit to Jeff Lebby and that staff for keeping his team engaged. They play hard and they compete. Problem is, they just aren’t very good. The issues in Starkville have been well documented and Lebby was handed the keys to a broken-down car from the 90s, and that’s about how they have looked. Texas A&M, on the other hand, has become a bit of a media darling since their destruction of Mizzou. Coming off a bye week, this is a game where A&M either proves they are a legit SEC and playoff contender, or perhaps just the same old Aggies. An SEC title and CFP contender would come into Starkville after a bye week and cover this 15.5 spread. A pretender, which A&M has been often in recent years, would come into this game and struggle. It’s probably my blatant homerism, but I think A&M handles business here. I’m not saying this will be a cakewalk, a road game in the SEC rarely is, but I’ll take the Aggies to win and cover here. I like the direction Elko has this team heading and I am putting my faith in Conner Weigman and the A&M offense that the Mizzou game wasn’t a fluke. I’m sure I’ll regret this later.
#14 Texas A&M 34
Mississippi State 17
Waco Kid: A&M is the hot girl at the bar right now, everyone likes her. They seem to forget that she’s been divorced already — her “ex was crazy” (getting suffocated by Notre Dame). But she’s had a glow-up, and maybe that revenge body really is for real (spanking Mizzou). Now, the Aggies have their kryptonite on deck. Mississippi State has given the Aggies fits for years, but I don’t think they have even close to enough to keep up with this revamped Aggies squad. Mike Elko has this team believing and bought in, and the Bulldogs are 1-5 for a reason. Aggies big.
#14 Texas A&M 48
Mississippi State 17
Bossman: I am fascinated by this game. In fact, even with Texas-Georgia and the Third Saturday in October on the slate, I’m most interested in this game. Night game in Fayetteville. Arkansas off a bye. Bobby Petrino with two weeks to prepare against this shaky LSU defense. LSU coming off a big win - possible letdown spot? If LSU wants to keep their playoff aspirations alive, this is a massive game. Their schedule still includes Texas A&M and Alabama. So the Tigers need to take care of business in a game like this. I don’t think they will! With a few bounces of the ball the other way, this Arkansas team could be undefeated. In fact, if they hadn’t shot themselves in the foot with turnovers, Sam Pittman’s team absolutely would be undefeated. Against Tennessee, the Hogs finally took care of the football and didn’t give up a turnover. LSU is ninth in turnover margin in the SEC, producing eight turnovers on the year…but giving seven right back. I think Arkansas protects the ball in this game and plays ball control while Petrino dips into his bag like he’s been doing all year, clipping the Tigers in another top-10 win in Fayetteville. After this one, we’re all back aboard the Sam Pittman train, while you’ll hear squeals from Baton Rouge all the way in the Natural State.
Arkansas 27
#8 LSU 24
Hammer: Another night game in Fayetteville aka Fayettenam! Will Reynolds Razorback Stadium claim another victim? They took Tennessee’s scalp two weeks ago, and after a bye week, welcome in LSU, who is fresh off a big overtime win against Ole Miss and feeling like a million bucks. Can Brian Kelly and his Tigers follow up a big, emotional win at home with a victory on the road? I have my doubts. Vibes and situation aside, this game is all on Garrett Nussmeier (like most LSU games). Arkansas has a top-30 rush defense in the country, and LSU is 99th in the country in rushing offense. I don’t quite understand how, but LSU protects the quarterback very well, yet can’t run the football. So Nussmeier and his wide receivers will need to be at their best since this game will be on their shoulders. On the other side of the ball, the LSU defense has improved. They have been great at generating pressure on opposing QBs and that is helping them a ton in defending the pass because their leaky secondary doesn’t have to defend for as long. In their last three games, LSU has only given up 53 total points and they held Ole Miss to 26 last week. The Tiger defense is not elite, but they are playing better and have a ton of confidence heading into this game. Problem is, ole Bobby Petrino had an extra week to prepare and dial up some surprises. Ultimately, I just don’t trust this LSU team yet and I think this is a classic letdown game. Arkansas is extremely hard to trust, too. If they turn the ball over three times and lose by 7, I wouldn’t be surprised at all. However, I am going to roll the dice with Sam Pittman and the Hogs at home here. Lord help me.
Arkansas 31
#8 LSU 30
Waco Kid: Has LSU finally found a defense? The Tigers looked the best they have all season against Ole Miss. They’ll need to be stellar again against Bobby Petrino, who is coming off a bye week. That’ll make any defensive coordinator sweat. These two teams can’t stand each other, and Arkansas will be ready, especially hosting the Tigers at night. I think LSU has found some footing, and I believe they’ll escape by the skin of their teeth in this one. A late FG propels the Tigers over the Hogs.
#8 LSU 24
Arkansas 21
Bossman: PAWWWL, TEXAS AIN’T PLAYED NOBODY PAWL! They haven’t. Sure, they’ve played traditional powers Michigan and Oklahoma, emphasis on the word traditional. This is not the Michigan team of the last few years, and Oklahoma is lost on offense as I discussed earlier. That’s not the Bob Stoops or Lincoln Riley Oklahoma teams that owned Texas for a decade plus. Texas hasn’t played an offense in the top 70 in the country! Enter Georiga, who has the 27th-best offense in the country. Not up to Georgia standards, but considerably better than anyone the Longhorns have faced thus far. Georgia is also the best defense Texas has faced to date. Now, is Texas legit? I think so. They’ve been impressive through the first seven weeks. This is a top-five team. However, Quinn Ewers got off to a slow start last week against OU, throwing a bad early pick. Texas can’t afford to get off to a sluggish start against the Bulldogs. The first quarter is going to be critical for both of these teams. The Horns will score on this Georgia defense, but this is still Georgia. They expect to win every game, they expect to be #1 in the country. They won’t be intimidated in the least by the atmosphere in Austin. Give me the Dawgs to get back on track with a big win over Texas. Sad Bevo, happy UGA.
#5 Georgia 30
#1 Texas 28
Hammer: This is the Horns welcome to the SEC moment. It’s a shame for everyone else that they get this “welcome to the SEC” game at home, but their SEC road schedule this year is a cakewalk so we have to take what we can get. For all the smack I talk about Texas, they have looked like the best team in the country so far. But this is far and away their best test of the season, even if Georgia looks vulnerable. Texas has yet to play a team with an offense worth a damn, so I’m fascinated to see if Carson Beck can exploit the untested Longhorn secondary. I have my doubts that Georgia can run the ball effectively in this one since they have struggled all year in that department. The matchup on the other side I am fascinated with is how Georgia handles all the weapons in the Texas arsenal. The Dawg’s defense struggled against Alabama and Mississippi State and to be blunt, doesn’t seem up to the caliber of the Dawg defenses in recent years. Georgia has to be able to get pressure on Quinn Ewers and shut down the run game. Get the Longhorn offense off schedule and make Ewers beat you on third and long. Ultimately, my eyes tell me to pick Texas to win here. They are rolling, it’s at home, and Georgia looks off. But I can’t. Maybe it's pure hatred and jealousy, but I also have faith in Kirby and this team and underdogs. When was the last time Georgia was an underdog? Surely that can be used as some extra motivation to go out there and play with some fire. Plus, Georgia is the more desperate team here. They already have a loss and can’t afford another if they want to control their own destiny for the SEC. Gimme the Dawgs to humble the Horns here.
#5 Georgia 38
#1 Texas 35
Waco Kid: Could this be a national title preview? Texas’ offense versus Georgia’s defense is like two bulls butting heads. UGA hasn’t looked invincible this season, there’s definitely chinks in the armor. But Kirby’s squad is still built to bully anyone into submission, even if the scores are closer than we’ve come to expect. Texas hangs around thanks to Ewers, but Georgia leans on that depth and pulls away late, overpowering the Horns who have played weak competition to date. I’ll take Georgia to control this one and put it away late, 45-32—Longhorns learn the hard way what SEC football’s all about.
#5 Georgia 45
#1 Texas 32
Bossman: Thinnest line I’ve seen all season, for good reason. Both of these teams are not that good, and it’s hard to know what to expect week to week. The calling card for Kentucky is the win over Ole Miss, but that is starting to look worse by the week. Florida HAD Tennessee last week, but a decision not to go for two probably cost the Gators a win. So, what to make of this matchup? Is Mark Stoops actually on the hot seat if he loses to dead man walking Billy Napier? Maybe. These two teams are pretty evenly matched when you look at the stats. The only thing that sticks out is Kentucky’s defense. They rank third in the SEC in total defense, and ninth in the entire country. That’s a tough spot for DJ Lagway to have his first start and expect success. YET, it’s a night game in The Swamp, and while Kentucky has a stellar defense, their offense is more lost than Forrest Gump chasing after Jenn-ay. Florida’s defense has been porous most of the season, but they shut down Tennessee last week, and I don’t think this Kentucky offense has much to be able to exploit the Gators defense in a hostile environment. I don’t feel great about this pick with Lagway in his first start, but I’ll take the Gators in a close one.
Florida 23
Kentucky 21
Hammer: Battle of the Mids. Kentucky looks lost. Credit to this team for sneaking up and beating Ole Miss in Oxford, but then they turned around and lost to Vandy at home off a bye week. I simply do not trust Kentucky right now, especially on offense. The Brock Vandagriff experience has been very mixed so far, and in his defense, their offensive line is not very good. They don’t do anything well on offense and Florida has looked good defensively since their bye week. I don’t think the Gators have an elite defense, but they can limit whatever Kentucky is trying to do. For the Florida offense, I think the Mertz injury actually helps. I feel bad for Mertz cause he had been playing well, but he has a pretty established ceiling, and they were running a two-QB system because Napier is completely lost. Now, it's Lagway’s show. He will get all the first-team reps in practice, and hopefully, Napier will put together a game plan that plays to Lagway’s strengths. I’m not ready to announce that Lagway is elite or his numbers will be great, but I think simply sticking to one QB for an entire game and the week leading up to the game, will benefit the Gator offense. Plus, this game is in the Swamp so give me the Gators.
Florida 20
Kentucky 17
Waco Kid: Kentucky’s coming off a rough one, just as the Gators are after giving a game away to hated rival Tennessee. To me, Florida’s been wobblier than a two-legged table all year. The Gators will start hot with DJ Lagway under center, but once this stout Kentucky defense punches back, it’ll be curtains for the home team. Stoops will have his boys ready to grind, and Florida won’t have enough fight to finish the Wildcats. The Wildcats grind one out in Gainesville — Swamp sadness inbound.
Kentucky 21
Florida 17
Other games in the SEC:
Vanderbilt (4-2) vs Ball State (2-4) - 7:00 ET on ESPN+ (Vandy -26.5)
Byes:
Ole Miss
