B&S Week 7 game-by-game previews
Big games across the conference this Saturday as SEC play heats up, and all eyes on Rocky Top.
By: The Waco Kid, The Hammer, Bossman Slim
We have now arrived at Week 7 and somehow the season is halfway over. If your team is still playing well and you have hope, congrats. For those who have been delivered a dose of reality so far in the first six weeks, fear not. College football always delivers and even if your team isn't going to accomplish what you thought they would, there’s always the second half of the season to entertain us and give hope for next year.
The Biscuits & SEC crew is slowly improving with our picks against the spread but without some red-hot weeks down the stretch, it’ll be tough for any of us to get over that 50% threshold, the Mendoza line of sports gambling. On the gridiron this weekend, there are plenty of intriguing matchups, headlined by the Third Saturday in October rivalry between Tennessee and Alabama. Rocky Top will be on another level this Saturday. Let’s dig in.
Auburn at #9 Ole Miss - 12:00 ET on ESPN (Ole Miss - 15.5)
Bossman Slim: AT Ole Miss. If this was at Jordan-Hare, maybe Auburn keeps it close in the first half. Look, Auburn is a trainwreck. We all know this. They’re such a trainwreck that much of the fanbase is coveting the Rebels coach again. TJ Finley is still up in the air as to whether or not he will play, and Robby Ashford has shown some flashes but just is not ready. It doesn’t help that his offensive line is swiss cheese. On the other side of the ball, Auburn walks into this one with the #11th-ranked rush defense in the conference. That doesn’t bode well against this Ole Miss two-headed monster that is averaging 242 yards rushing per game. I think that spread is right. Ole Miss goes over and puts yet another nail in the coffin of the Bryan Harsin era, which seems to just keep adding nails each week.
#9 Ole Miss 38
Auburn 17
The Hammer: I’ve said the same thing about Auburn since the Penn State debacle. The team isn't very good, and Bryan Harsin is going to be fired at some point before the end of the year. Maybe it will happen this weekend, who knows? What I do know is that Ole Miss will win this game. The Rebels defense has been very solid so far in 2022 and Auburn has an abysmal offense. It might surprise you to know that Ole Miss currently ranks 11th in the country in scoring defense, allowing 14.5 points per game. They also rank 31st in yards given up per game at 330.2. Make no mistake, the Rebels can play defense and we know Kiffin’s offense is going to put up points one way or another. I like Ole Miss to win and cover here, especially at home.
#9 Ole Miss 35
Auburn 14
The Waco Kid: There aren’t too many snoozers this weekend but it seems any time Auburn plays a ranked team, that is what the game turns into. In the two games they have played top 25 teams the Tigers have lost by a combined score of 83-22. That’s quite the lopsided statistic. Add in a loss to a mediocre LSU team and the blue and orange have left much to be desired this season. Freshman quarterback Robby Ashford is starting to be effective in both the pass and rush game but the real shocker here is Tank Bigsby’s production or lack thereof. In the three SEC matchups Auburn has played, Bigsby has been stifled by division defenses totaling only 108 yards over those games. This was a guy who was supposed to be a top back in the nation at the start of 2022 but is no longer even a middle-tier back in conference play. A lot of his ineffectiveness can be attributed to Auburn consistently finding themselves in close games or playing from behind but can also be blamed on the lack of leadership throughout the program. Bryan Harsin is too busy worrying about keeping his job/ finding the next one and it is evident by AU’s on-field play. I do not see this changing, especially not against a top-ten Ole Miss team in Oxford. Mississippi wins this one by a decent margin and continues their March toward Atlanta, while Harsin and his team struggle to find an offensive game plan. Pound the over because the Rebs will score with ease and War Eagle will find the end zone a couple of times as well.
#9 Ole Miss 45
Auburn 21
Vanderbilt at #1 Georgia - 3:30 ET on SEC Network (UGA - 38.5)
Bossman Slim: Easy one here, the Dawgs got back on track last week against Auburn, and while Vandy is slowly trending up, they still have a long way to go. A nice showing in the first half against Ole Miss last week until the Rebels turned on the jets in the second half. You’re at Georgia, this one isn’t going to go well. Dawgs big, but I expect Vandy to cover here. Kent State was able to score on this Georgia D and I think AJ Swann will be able to do enough to get a Commodore cover.
#1 Georgia 45
Vanderbilt 21
The Hammer: It’s a good thing Vandy won most three out of their four non-conference games, because SEC games are a different animal, as the Commodores have found out. Vandy is much improved over the 2021 team, and AJ Swann has shown a lot of good things as a true freshman, but it’s still Vanderbilt and this rebuild will take a few more years before they can even hope to compete with a team like Georgia. The Bulldogs looked better against Auburn last week than they had in prior games against Kent State and Missouri, and this is a game the Dawgs can pretty much sleep through again if needed. Kirby Smart doesn’t subscribe to this way of thinking, and I don’t expect Georgia to be sloppy on Saturday but it would matter if they were. Thoughts and prayers to Vanderbilt.
#1 Georgia 45
Vanderbilt 10
The Waco Kid: Last time Georgia played in a trap game they barely eeked out a win. Don’t expect the same outcome on Saturday. The Dawgs learned their lesson in the close game that Mizzou gave them. That lesson being: they cannot just march into any field, give no effort, play horribly, and still win by 20. It was definitely a wake-up call like a 6 AM alarm on a Monday morning. Vanderbilt has shown some promising play throughout the season but that ends in Athens. UGA has three games left that are circled on their calendar and this is not one. Stetson Bennett will be out of the game by the 4th quarter and the red and black may get a glimpse of what they have to look forward to next season with Brock Vandagriff and/or Carson Beck.
#1 Georgia 56
Vanderbilt 23
#3 Alabama at #6 Tennessee - 3:30 ET on CBS (Bama - 7.5)
Bossman Slim: LETS. GO. This one is going to be a brawl. It’s great to see this rivalry get some legs again. Alabama and Tennessee fans know this rivalry runs deep, it just hasn’t had the same luster for much of the last two decades due to Tennessee’s ineptitude. The Third Saturday in October had become Blowout Saturday in October for the Vols, and Alabama was running out of new Cuban brands of cigars to smoke. But under Josh Heupel and this high-flying offense, the Vols are a rocket and have a real chance to stem the Tide this Saturday. Bryce Young is expected to play for Alabama, which makes this one even more intriguing. Throughout Young’s career, big road games have often been close. With Hendon Hooker and this Vols offense, I expect this one to be down to the wire. It’s the #1 offense in the conference vs. the #1 defense. Can Alabama force Tennessee into turnovers? Hooker has yet to throw an INT this year, but the Vols are fumble prone, with 11 on the season and 5 lost. Rocky Top will be ROCKIN’. I like Tennesse to topple the giant and get a MASSIVE monkey off their back. Light up the cigars, Knoxville.
#6 Tennessee 38
#3 Alabama 37
The Hammer: We’ve seen this movie before. A massively hyped team goes up against Alabama and seems to have all the momentum. The media hypes the game and creates an atmosphere that makes everyone think the underdog can do this thing. Then the game gets played, and Alabama does what Alabama does: just win, baby. With Bryce Young back, that makes a tall task for Tennessee even taller. The Vols can be in this game and have a chance to win, don’t get me wrong. But they aren’t there yet. I think Alabama’s depth is the difference in this one, and I also believe that Tennessee will need everyone in that locker room to beat the Tide. Cedric Tillman is not expected to play today and while Bru McCoy and Jalin Hyatt have stepped up in his absence, I don’t think it will be enough to topple the Tide. Alabama gets the W and deflates Rocky Top on another march to the SEC Championship and a rematch with Georgia.
#3 Alabama 41
#6 Tennessee 34
The Waco Kid: Everything in me wants to pick Tennessee to win this game and upset the Tide. What a season that would be for all of college football to finally see Saban fall to the East and miss out on a chance at the playoffs. It has been 12 years since they have lost a regular season matchup with the East so it is highly unlikely this is the year to make it happen, especially not after a near loss to a young Texas A&M team last weekend. The Crimson get back Heisman Trophy winner Bryce Young for this contest and will not have to worry about three costly turnovers that will allow the opponent to stay within striking reach. Plus, Good ol’ Nick has a knack for taking out his frustrations on the next team after a close game. Under his coaching, Bama is 37-4 against the East with an impressive 15-0 record when playing the Vols. Those odds do not favor Rocky Top even if they are hosting the game. Alabama’s defense is allowing an average of 12.5 points per game which is still very effective in college football. Some may say this group is underrated because of the high expectations they face on a yearly basis. While Hendon Hooker has the Vols scoring at a high capacity, they have yet to face a defense with the likes of Will Anderson, Henry To’oto’o, and Kool-Aid McKinstry. Speaking of To’oto’o, it will be his return to Neyland stadium after transferring to Alabama two years ago and you can bet he will be playing with everything he has and will give his checkered orange and white a homecoming to be remembered. Calling it now, he has at least one turnover in his return to Knoxville. The Crimson offense will be too much for the East (outside of Georgia) to handle and their defense is unlike anything Josh Heupel’s group has seen. Tide rolls in spectacular fashion like the waves of Gulf Shores over the sandy butt cheeks of sorority girls on spring break.
#3 Alabama 43
#6 Tennessee 27
Arkansas at BYU - 3:30 ET on ESPN (BYU -1.5)
Bossman Slim: It’s looking like the Hogs will get KJ Jefferson back for this one, which is huge for the Razorbacks. With KJ, this team is solid. Without him, it’s a completely different team. BYU cannot stop the run, giving up 172 yards per game on the ground, and in their two losses, they gave up 212 yards and 324 yards on the ground. With KJ back and Rocket Sanders in the backfield, I like the Hogs to play some smashmouth football and run it all over the Cougs. Here’s the issue for Arkansas: BYU can throw the dang ball. The Cougars average 264 yards per game through the air, and they will exploit this Arkansas secondary that has been an Achilles heel all year. I expect a tit-for-tat that comes down to the offenses in this one, but I’ll take Arkansas by a field goal.
Arkansas 38
BYU 35
The Hammer: What in the world is Arkansas doing playing an out-of-conference game at BYU in the middle of SEC play? It’s week seven! I love that the Hogs are playing this game and aren't afraid to mix it up with BYU, a perennially good independent (for now) team. But this is a game that needs to be played early on, not smack dab in the middle of conference play. Really, really difficult spot for the Razorbacks who are reeling after three straight losses. It seems as if KJ Jefferson will return to action this week in Provo, and they really need him. Losing four straight games would be a total disaster for the Hogs, who were in the top 10 just a few weeks ago. The Cougars are reeling a bit in their own right coming off a loss to Notre Dame a week ago. The key in this game will be whether or not BYU can take advantage of the weak Arkansas secondary. The Cougs only managed 120 yards passing last week. This game is a total coin flip to me, but I’m leaning toward BYU since they are at home and Arkansas has been punished three weeks in a row.
BYU 34
Arkansas 31
The Waco Kid: Arkansas has been a real bummer to watch the past few weeks after a stellar start to their season. They’ve lost three straight to A&M, Alabama, and Mississippi State and now take on an out-of-conference opponent that by no means is a typical mid-season cupcake team. BYU can score some points but has had issues competing with some of the bigger names in college football. Their losses come from Oregon and Notre Dame while their defining win is against a middle of the pack, Big 12 Baylor team. Unfortunately for the Cougs, the return of KJ Jefferson could put them at a disadvantage against a Razorback team that desperately needs a win. Wild animals are most dangerous when they are cornered and these piggies are feeling the pressure. I have to think we are going to see Sam Pittman’s squad show up and play like they did the first three weeks of the season. If they do, this could get ugly fast. Bet against the spread, Arky by 17.
Arkansas 34
BYU 17
LSU at Florida - 7:00 ET on ESPN (Florida -2.5)
Bossman Slim: No matter the circumstances with these two teams this is always a great game. This also has big implications for the trajectory of these programs for these two first-year head coaches. You know Billy Napier wants this one bad after LSU didn’t even give him an interview while he was building up the Ragin’ Cajuns program. As much as this two recruit against each other, a win in this one will be big on the trail for whoever comes out on top. LSU has had trouble through the air this year with Jayden Daniels under center, but so has Florida except for one Anthony Richardson breakout against a susceptible Tennessee secondary. With the way LSU shut down Will Rogers, I think this is going to be a ground-and-pound game for both of these teams. Expect both teams to try and establish the run…and both defenses to pack the box and dare the other to beat them through the air. I think it will be a lower-scoring affair than we’re used to between these two teams. With it being in The Swamp at night, I agree with Vegas, Florida covers and holds off LSU in the end.
Florida 24
LSU 20
The Hammer: These are the two most inconsistent teams in the SEC right now. Florida looked good against Utah and Tennessee, but terrible against Kentucky, USF, and Mizzou. Meanwhile, LSU looked great against Mississippi State but has since laid two consecutive eggs against Auburn and Tennessee. This game comes down to QB play. Both Jayden Daniels and Anthony Richardson have been really inconsistent so far this year, hence why their teams have as well. I’m going to give Florida the edge here for two reasons. First, it’s a night game in the Swamp. Second, the Gator’s run game has been much better than LSU’s. Florida averages 213 yards rushing per game at 6.36 yards per carry. Meanwhile, LSU is 53rd nationally in rushing at 172.5 yards per game and 4.66 yards per carry. To really drive this point home, Jayden Daniels is the Tigers leading rusher with 359 yards on 76 carries. The next closest is Armoni Goodwin with 199 yards on just 34 carries. This tells me that Daniels has no help. Florida, on the other hand, has two running backs in Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson Jr that have more yards and carries than Anthony Richardson, so the Gators have much more balance on offense. An inconsistent QB with a bad running game doesn't seem like a winning recipe for the road team in the Swamp.
Florida 34
LSU 27
The Waco Kid: I wanted to go all out on the East this week but as I sit and continue to question myself, I keep coming to the conclusion that Florida may be the only team from the East to win their cross-division match-up. First off the game is at the Swamp, a historically difficult venue for visiting fans and teams alike. When the gator faithful get going, the stadium could drown out the sound of a Cat 5 hurricane. Second, UF has a lot to defend seeing as the last time these two teams met up in Gainesville the Tigers upset the #6 home team because of a shoe toss that resulted in a penalty to keep the game within reach for the purple and gold. And lastly, no matter how good (or bad see 2022) these teams are they always have each other’s numbers. Emotions are high and this game can make or break both teams' seasons, regardless of records at the end of the year. For all of these reasons, I think Napier wins his first big SEC home rivalry game when the fourth quarter ends on Saturday. Anthony Richardson will bring some magic back to The Swamp just like he did against Utah. Behind the legs of their quarterback and stable of running backs, I think the Gators can keep fresh bodies on the field and pound down the Bayou Bengal defense. Florida covers and gets the lone win for the East over the West.
Florida 24
LSU 13
#16 Mississippi State at #22 Kentucky - 7:30 ET on SEC Network (Miss State - 3.5)
Bossman Slim: Will Levis is cleared to play which gives Kentucky a nice boost against the Bulldogs. Kentucky also has a solid defense, boasting the 3rd best defense in the SEC and 3rd best pass defense in the conference. Remember that Mississippi State ran the ball all over Texas A&M, so this is not just an offense that can beat you through the air, but they’re dynamic and can beat you in multiple ways with Will Rogers slinging it and Dillon Johnson running the rock. Mississippi State’s defense has been middling in the conference this year giving up xx yards per game, but can Kentucky exploit that? I think they are able to get some chunk plays with Levis back and Barrion Brown on the outside, but they haven’t been able to get the running game going the way they need to all year. The Wildcats are also turnover prone with 10 turnovers and a -3 turnover ratio on the year. On the other side, State is +4 in turnover ratio. I think the Bulldogs for a couple turnovers and capitalize on them, I’m taking the team with the hot hand here. Mississippi State by 11.
#16 Mississippi State 35
#22 Kentucky 24
The Hammer: Kentucky is in a tough spot here too, not unlike Arkansas. The Wildcats have lost two straight games, and Will Levis didn't play last week due to injury. I think he’ll play this weekend but I’m not convinced he’s going to be 100% and his performance could be impacted. I may regret this because this is the exact spot where Mike Leach teams in the past have disappointed, but I like the Bulldogs here. I don’t trust Kentucky’s offense, with or without Levis, to put up enough points. On the other side, Mississippi State’s offense is rolling. Cowboy Will Rogers leads the country in passing yards with 2,110 so far this year. Oh, and he had thrown 22 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions. I’m anxious about picking against Mark Stoops and Kentucky at home when they desperately need a win, but give me the Bulldogs get this dub.
#16 Mississippi State 31
#22 Kentucky 21
The Waco Kid: There’s not much left to say about Mississippi State that hasn’t already been said. Will Rogers. That’s the game plan for the Bulldogs offensively and the Wildcats defensively. Mike Leach and the boys rally behind Rogers’ play on a week-to-week basis and he continues to impress in every situation he is thrown into. This game will bring nothing different. It is the battle of the Wills. Rogers cs Levis and with the Wildcats QB coming off an injury the edge goes to the maroon and white. There are not many teams that can slow a leach offense and that will be on display this weekend. MSU covers and gets the second win of the day for the West.
#16 Mississippi State 35
#22 Kentucky 20