16-in-16 2024: Oklahoma Sooners
The Sooners enter the SEC with some momentum from a 10-win campaign in 2023, but can they keep it up with a daunting schedule and a new starter at QB?
By: Hammer
For a refresher on our ratings system, check out our 16-in-16 ratings guide here.
It’s been a wild last few years in Norman, Oklahoma. After a two-decade run of pure dominance in the Big 12 where the Sooners won 14 conference titles between 2000 and 2020, the Sooners have failed to win a Big 12 title since the COVID season. Lincoln Riley bolted for USC after the 2021 season just months after it was announced that Oklahoma and Texas would be moving to the SEC and Brent Venables took over in 2022. Despite the dominant run in the Big 12 conference, Oklahoma has not won a national title since 2000, and two years into Venables tenure, they seem as far away as they have ever been since the John Blake era.
State of the Program: 7/12 Biscuits. Ascending...the program has hope and momentum and has a shot to take a step up; There’s not much fast food around, so Burger King will have to do. It strives for the best, and with a few tweaks, it can compete with the best.
I can already hear Sooner fans clamoring for not having a higher rating, but honestly, I was closer to giving them a lower rating than a higher one. Oklahoma is 16-10 in Venables' two seasons in Norman. That is not elite, or even nipping at the heels of elite. They have some momentum coming off a 10-win campaign and have consistently recruited at a top-10 level, so I could be proven wrong here. I have to see it, though. The way this team has played the last couple of years in the Big 12 will not cut it in the SEC, especially with the dastardly schedule the Sooners have this fall. Venables still has a ton to prove and he doesn’t have any more time to get it right. He’s not on the hot seat, but the SEC is here and the improvements needed to compete for SEC titles are either ready or they aren’t. I’m not convinced they are ready just yet, and a 7 or 8-win season would not go over well. Venables and his staff deserve credit for drastic improvements between year one and year two.
Undoubtedly, the departure of Lincoln Riley and many players to the transfer portal leading into the 2022 season hurt badly, and once Venables got his feet under him, the team improved. Kudos to them, but this is the SEC, and winning 10 games in the Big 12 is a far cry from winning 10 games in the SEC. With the departure of Dillon Gabriel at QB and offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby, I am skeptical of what the Sooners can do in their first SEC season. As always in modern college football, transfers play a key role too. Unlike his former boss from the Palmetto State, Venables has been open to using the portal. The Sooners grabbed 15 transfer commits this offseason and ranked 20th in the country in transfer portal rankings. They also lost 25 players to the portal.
What went right in 2023?
They won 10 regular season games, which is darn good. The Sooners were also 4th in the country in total offense averaging over 41 points per game thanks to Dillon Gabriel at QB (3,660 yards, 30 TDs, 6 interceptions, and 12 rushing TDs). Gabriel was accurate and decisive with the football and Jeff Lebby put together a great offense in 2024, hence why he was hired as head coach at Mississippi State. The Sooners averaged over 500 yards of offense per game…but Gabriel is now at Oregon and Lebby is in Starkville. I know Jackson Arnold inspires hope in Norman, but is he ready to deliver numbers like that with a new offensive staff led by Seth Litrell at OC?
What went wrong in 2023?
The defense was still not good. Sure, they improved from 99th in total defense in 2022 up to 49th in 2023. They allowed 389 yards and 23 points per game, which isn’t awful. It’s possible that the upward trend continues in year three and the Sooners field a stingy defense. But Venables is a defensive guy and 49th in his second year did not live up to expectations.
What the Sooners need in 2024
They need Jackson Arnold to be what many think he can be: one of the best QBs in the SEC and country. Arnold was a 5-star recruit in the 2023 recruiting class and the belle of the ball for Venables and Co. Their future rides on him. In Arnold’s lone start last year in the bowl game, he struggled going 26/45 for 361 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. I try not to read very much into bowl games these days given the opt-outs, transfers, and general lack of effort at times. However, it is concerning to see the interceptions knowing that Arnold had weeks to prepare as the starter since Gabiel transferred right after the regular season. I also think the Sooners need to field a top-20 defense to return to the expectations of their fanbase (winning 10 or more games, competing for an SEC title and the CFP). Not many first-time starting QBs come in and light the SEC on fire, so I expect the Sooners to be in some battles out there this year and play potent offenses like Tennessee, Ole Miss, Missouri, Texas, Alabama, and LSU. I do think Arnold will be a good QB but I don’t expect him to be able to hang 40 points consistently in the SEC so the Sooner defense will need to improve.
How they can earn some extra biscuits
Given their schedule, it's hard to imagine Oklahoma making it to Atlanta for the SEC title game. So to be realistic, I think a 9 or 10-win inaugural season in the SEC would earn them some extra biscuits, especially if Jackson Arnold looks the part. Barring a transfer, Arnold will be back in 2025 so if the team plays well, competes with the cream of the crop, and can go 9-3 or 10-2 with a promising QB, we’ll throw another biscuit or two in the oven.
Oklahoma’s over/under win total according to DraftKings Sportsbook is set at 7.5. As usual, Vegas is right on the money. I could see this going either way. As it stands now, I am leaning towards the under just because the schedule is brutal and severely backloaded. But the Sooners could easily jump up and win 8 or 9 games so if you feel strongly, make a bet and cash that over.