16-in-16 2024: Mississippi State
Expectations are low in Starkville after a disappointing one-and-done tenure from Zach Arnett. Can Jeff Lebby notch a few unexpected wins this year to get State back on track?
By: Bossman Slim
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Well, that escalated quickly. Mike Leach led the Bulldogs to a 9-4 season in 2022 but sadly passed away at the conclusion of the regular season after complications from a heart attack. Mississippi State then handed the reins to Leach’s up-and-coming defensive coordinator, Zach Arnett, who crashed and burned in one year at the helm. He didn’t even make it a full season as he was fired after a late-season 51-10 drubbing at the hands of a Texas A&M team playing with their third-string QB.
Enter Jeff Lebby, the offensive guru who helped propel Ole Miss in the Lane Kiffin era and most recently helped elevate Oklahoma’s offense to 4th in total offense last season. Expectations are low to begin the Lebby era, but that means there is plenty of opportunity to make some surprise waves.
State of the Program: 4/12 biscuits. There’s not many worse than us...we’ve got a long way to go; Your third cousin sent some mix in the mail and you bake them, eat half of one, and throw out the tray.
Our 14-in-14 preview last season of the Bulldogs gave them 5/12 biscuits as we thought they would be in a rebuilding phase after the passing of Leach. Turns out we were right and also sorely mistaken at the same time. We didn’t realize just how badly the Zach Arnett era would go. The transition from Leach’s Air Raid offense turned out to be a season-long issue, former QB Will Rogers was never able to get comfortable, and it ended with Arnett’s firing. The program took a significant step back under the Arnett regime, but they only lose one biscuit since we have a new coach to lead State into the new-look SEC era.
Lebby was an understudy to Art Briles at Baylor and was an OC under Lane Kiffin and Josh Heupel, so he’ll bring a high-flying offensive style to Starkville that has become his hallmark trait. As an OC, Lebby has had offenses in the top 15 three times, including two top-five finishes. M&W Nation did a great breakdown of his offensive philosophy, which seeks to use tempo and fit the offense to the strengths of team personnel.
It’s safe to say that this is a full roster rebuild, which is contributing to the low expectations in Starkville. The Bulldogs lost their top five leading receivers from last season, their top running back, and four-year starter Will Rogers at QB to the portal. On defense, they’ll need to replace two stalwarts at linebacker in Nathaniel Watson and Jett Johnson who both moved on to the NFL along with DTs Jaden Crumedy and Nathan Pickering. They also lost top corner Decamerion Richardson, who will be suiting up on Sundays for the Las Vegas Raiders.
To backfill the roster, Lebby added QB Blake Shapen from Baylor and Davon Booth at RB who comes from Utah State. Booth rushed for 805 yards and six TDs last season. Wideout Trent Hudson comes in from New Mexico State where he had a stellar season, catching 35 balls for 551 yards and 10 touchdowns with an impressive 15.7 YPC. On defense, Bulldog fans are fired up about LB Stone Blanton who comes over from South Carolina and has a high ceiling, recording 51 total tackles last season.
As for administrative backing, Mississippi State wants a winner, as AD Zac Selmon has made clear. State committed just over $18 million in base salary over four years to head coach Jeff Lebby, a low sum in today’s day and age. That salary puts Lebby near the bottom of the conference, only ahead of Clark Lea at Vandy. However, there are plans in the works to renovate Davis Wade Stadium, and if Lebby can start stacking Ws, the money will come…or he’ll leave.
What went right in 2023?
How little time do you have? There’s not much to hang your hat on for the 2023 Mississippi State Bulldogs as a team. The offense was a mess all season and their coach got fired before the end of the year. An early season win over a decent Arizona team was nice, as was an ugly win over Arkansas, but that was about it. There were impressive individual performances, especially on defense, from the likes of a few names we mentioned above. Other than that, it was a year to forget in Starkvegas.
What went wrong in 2023?
Will Rogers was never able to get comfortable in Kevin Barbay’s hybrid system, which tried to keep some Leach concepts to help Rogers, but instead, it only confused him. Woody Marks battled some injuries but was still criminally underused and only surpassed the 100-yard mark in the first two games of the season. The defense had a few bright spots individually and put together some good performances (see Arkansas), but also put together some glaring duds, with three that stick out in Texas A&M, LSU, and Alabama. The Zach Arnett experiment was a disaster, and now he’s an analyst at Ole Miss. It feels like it can only go up from here under Jeff Lebby (knock on wood).
What the Bulldogs need in 2024
Show improvement. It’s pretty simple. This is year one under Jeff Lebby, the roster has been turned over from graduation and the portal, and not much is expected of the team this season. When you factor in an unrelenting schedule, it could be a humbling first year under Lebby. I see five potential wins on the schedule and that might be stretching it. The Bulldogs play five pre-season top-15 teams and four of those games are on the road. BRUTAL. However, Lebby is known to have some offensive tricks up his sleeve like a few of his mentors. If he can get a surprise win in year one, sneak into 6-6 and a bowl berth, and pick up some steam on the recruiting trail, State fans will be excited for the future.
How they can earn some extra biscuits
Get to 6-6. Upset someone like Texas A&M and win the tweener games like Arizona State and Arkansas. If Lebby leads the Bulldogs to a bowl berth in year one and can stir up some excitement around the program, he’ll have set the foundation and earned his stripes in his first year as a head coach.
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