16-in-16 2024: Florida Gators
Billy Napier’s seat is getting warm, and Florida’s schedule is unforgiving. Can the Gators walk the tightrope and put together a winning season?
By: Waco Kid
For a refresher on our ratings system, check out our 16-in-16 ratings guide here.
Another year, another Florida head football coach on the hot seat. Napier has been struggling in Gainesville with a record of 11-14 in his first two SEC seasons. The UF head coaching job seems to have a curse over it since Urban Meyer took them to unprecedented heights. Programs will always have down years, but this program should be competing, recruiting, and winning at a high-level year in and year out. Luckily, they are returning Graham Mertz for his second season as a starter after already being a proven quarterback at the Power 5 (now 4) level. Montrell Johnson will also be integral in this offense as his running back counterpart Trevor Etienne departed for Georgia in the offseason. Johnson rushed for over 800 yards while splitting time with Etienne so he is poised for a breakout season this year.
The main loss in the offseason, outside of Etienne, was wide receiver Ricky Pearsall who was drafted in the first round by the San Francisco 49ers. The receiver room may be thin but they are returning season 2023 leader, Trey Wilson III which should give some stability to Mertz and a familiar face to get the ball to. Florida starts the season playing 19th-ranked Miami and if they can start off with a win against a top-25 team, the tides could turn and maybe give them the confidence needed to get through an SEC schedule with a winning season.
State of the Program: 5/12 biscuits. pretty dang burnt, but you can cut the top off and eat it like a silver lining. There’s a little hope.
Similar to yearly regular seasons these biscuits are just winning at right under half of what they should. These are just frozen biscuits that you put in the microwave when you are short on time.
The defense will be key to the success of Napier and the boys. They are returning almost a full secondary which should have some experience and come in as a strong part of the unit. The defensive line is filled with a bunch of units, and while that did not translate on the field last year, they will look to be ten times better against the run in 2024. I mean take Cam Jackson; The Memphis transfer stands at a whopping 6’6”, 374 lbs and if you can’t stop the run with guys like that, there’s a problem schematically and it starts with the coaches.
Graham Mertz will lead the offense once again in 2024. While his play was underwhelming last season, especially with the pedigree he came in with from Wisconsin, he still showed flashes of grit and brilliance. With one season under his belt in the Sunshine State, the SEC should be slowing down in his mind and defenses will be easier to read. Montrell Johnson will need to get it going on the ground to open up opposing secondaries for Mertz. Ground and pound has been a staple of the orange and blue since the days of Tim Tebow running over opponents and to be successful I think the formula has to be run the dang ball.
Success has to begin and end in the coaching room. Five and six win seasons are unacceptable, especially in a place like The Swamp. Napier and new defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong have to be on the same page, draw up schemes, and get the players to buy in and execute. If you are going to hire a defensive coordinator it may as well be one who coached on the Alabama sideline and knows what success is. It also does not hurt to have been under the tutelage of maybe the best defensive-minded head coach to ever do it, Nick Saban. Programs are jumping at the chance to hire Saban’s coaching tree, and it looks like even after he is gone, nothing has changed. This team has to win in the trenches and that starts with pulling out everything these players have during practice on a day-to-day basis. If they can’t give it their all in practice, most likely that will translate onto the field on Saturdays.
The Swamp is still an intimidating place for opposing teams to walk into. Now all that’s needed is a good few wins to get this rowdy crowd back into the equation and strike fear into anyone who steps off that bus in Gainesville.
What went right in 2023?
Not much went right in 2023 but the high point of the season was a win over #11 Tennessee. That win proved the Gators can still compete with the best of the SEC on any given weekend, just not on every weekend. The emergence of Graham Mertz and retaining him for another year is also a win for the Gainesville boys. Still, there is a lot to build on and much to look forward to.
What went wrong in 2023?
A losing season at Florida is unacceptable. The win column should always be higher than the loss for this storied program. I guess the good thing is not much more can go wrong for the Gators and it should be all uphill from here.
What the Gators need in 2024
The Gators need to be competitive in the SEC and win some of their non-conference games. If they can beat 2 out of 3 of the Florida teams on their schedule they will be sitting pretty well. And let’s face it they kind of have to. With a difficult SEC schedule without two of those wins, they may be looking at another bowl-less season.
How they can earn some extra biscuits
For starters, make a bowl game. Six wins, that’s all you need, you don’t even have to break .500 on the season but you must be close. Breakthrough for a winning season, somehow get to eight or nine wins, and you could be looking at a few more biscuits being slung the Gators way.
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