B&S week 5 game by game previews
HOGS & DAWGS, REBS & TIDE. This is going to be a fun Saturday, buckle up.
By: Bossman Slim, The Hammer, The Waco Kid
Watch Bossman Slim and The Hammer on preview week 5 with Steven Willis, then read up on the rest of our previews.
My oh my. This is going to be a doozy, folks. We’ve got two heavyweight matchups this weekend that will separate the men from the boys. We’re gonna get right into it because there’s no need to sugar coat it. You know what this weekend is about.
Let’s check in on how the crew fared last week:
Bossman Slim: 7-1; 38-8 overall
The Hammer: 6-2; 39-7 overall
The Waco Kid: 6-2; 39-7 overall
Bossman Slim stayed in the game with his Boston College over Mizzou pick. Let’s see if he can keep it going this week.
Early Games
#2 Georgia vs #8 Arkansas - 12:00 PM ET on ESPN (UGA -18.5)
Bossman Slim: Why is this game at noon?? Ridiculous that a game as big as this one is an early kickoff. I thought ESPN pulled all the strings around here? Dumb dumb dumb. The early kickoff gives UGA a slight advantage since they’re the home team, but it’s not like Georgia needed another advantage. Arkansas is a good football team. This is not your 2017 Sig Ep’s Arkansas Razorbacks, this is your 2021 Hogs and they’re mean. However, they’re going up against your grandfather’s Bulldogs, who look primed for a national title run. The Dawgs also get back Darnell Washington and Tykee Smith this week, to add to an already elite team. Gimme the Dawgs.
#2 Georgia 31 - #8 Arkansas 17
The Hammer: Arkansas is high on the Hog after sweeping Texas and Texas A&M in convincing fashion. Sam Pittman and the Razorback coaching staff have done a miraculous job resurrecting the program after some worried Chad Morris had buried the Hogs for good. Not so fast, my friend. Arkansas is for real. They are physical, run the ball well, play incredibly sound defense and KJ Jefferson can ball. Things are looking up in Fayetteville, just not this weekend. All that praise for Arkansas is deserved, but Georgia is on another level right now. The Dawgs have annihilated all their opponents outside of Clemson, who they may have broken for the entirety of 2021. I could see Georgia’s offense struggling a little against the Hogs defense, but it won’t matter because of what the Dawgs have defensively. That unit is downright scary and I don't think Arkansas will be able to run very well against Jordan Davis and the Bulldog front seven. This game will be close for a bit but Georgia will outlast the Hogs and pull away late.
#2 Georgia 28 - #8 Arkansas 14
The Waco Kid: WOOO PIG SOOO and that’s where it ends. Last weekend the Razorbacks enjoyed a great win against an overrated A&M team (being overrated due to lack of depth at QB) and are riding the national hype into Athens. What awaits them is no Texas team, but rather some Dawgs looking to go on the first hog hunt of the season. And trust me there will be no escaping this canine. Georgia’s offense doesn’t even have to be healthy because the defense will hold any opponent to under 14 points. That is what should be expected in this game. Hate that it’s the early game (tailgating time) but everyone should still find the time to watch it. UGA will allow maybe 10 points but that won’t be enough for Sam “The Grill Master” Pittman to walk away with the win. While the jukebox may be all the way turnt up, it will fall deaf in Sanford Stadium. If JT is healthy this contest is DOA. If not maybe, just maybe, an upset could be in the cards for the U of A. I almost always lean towards Arkansas, this week I can’t.
#2 Georgia 38 - #8 Arkansas 10
Tennessee at Missouri 12:00 ET on SEC Network (Mizzou -3)
Hendon Hooker is the key to a Vols shot to win. (Photo via 10 News WBIR)
Bossman Slim: Now THIS is a noon game. A noon game looks like two mediocre teams who are fighting to stay out of the irrelevance basement. I am a little surprised by this line since Mizzou just got taken down by BC, but I guess Vegas is giving the benefit of the doubt to Mizzou at home since Tennessee isn’t great either. I think Tennessee is the better team this year, if only by a hair. That all depends on Hendon Hooker starting - if it’s Hooker, I like the Vols. If it’s Milton, I think Mizzou by a field goal.
Tennessee 35 - Missouri 34
The Hammer: I picked Mizzou to take care of business last week against Boston College and they let me down. The Tigers are not bad offensively, but they cannot stop the run as they allowed 275 yards rushing against Boston College. If I was Josh Heupel, I would pound the rock all game regardless of whether Joe Milton or Hendon Hooker starts at quarterback. This game looks like a battle for 5th place in the SEC East. Yippee! I don’t feel great about either team but I think Tennessee is due. Give me the Vols to pick up a big win (by their standards) on the road.
Tennessee 34 - Missouri 28
The Waco Kid: Tennessee has not fared well against teams with a recognized name. I think this continues this week. Hendon Hooker is obviously the guy at this point but what else do they have going on? A run game that shows up against nobody and a lackluster receiving corps that boasts no real threat. This contest will be the Bazelek and Badie show. There is no doubt in my mind that the Tiger offense can be productive whenever they want. Connor Bazelek has not thrown for under 250 yards in a game so far and has eclipsed 300 yards in two games so far. The Vols will not be able to slow him or the run game and for that reason, I have Mizzou in this one. Prize Picks made it difficult this week putting the Missouri QB at over/under 295.5 passing yards. It is right on the verge, but I would go with the under just by a few.
Missouri 37 - Tennessee 31
Midday Games
#1 Alabama vs #12 Ole Miss 3:30 ET on CBS (Alabama -14.5)
Matt Corrall needs to have a big, mistake free day to take down the Tide and ride into Ole Miss lore. (Photo: Jonathan Bachman, Getty Images)
Bossman Slim: Alabama is a juggernaut...but they’re vulnerable. More vulnerable it seems than they’ve been in years. I’m sure Lane Kiffin and Jeff Lebby have been salivating while watching tape of this Alabama defense this week. The Tide rank 18th in the country - they’re no slouch - but they can be exploited and have been uncharacteristically missing assignments and at times look clueless. Kiffin is the right guy to exploit that. Saban has never lost to a former assistant. That ends today. HOTTY TODDY!
#12 Ole Miss 42 - #1 Alabama 36
The Hammer: The rematch. Can Lane Kiffin be the first assistant to take down former boss and evil emperor, Nick Saban? Possibly, but it will take a herculean effort from Matt Corral. If Ole Miss can avoid turnovers and not allow Alabama to make a big play on special teams, then this one will come down to the wire. The Rebels defense has looked much improved this year but this will be their biggest test by far. Bryce Young and the Tide offense have been very good. Not quite as good as last year, but a potent offense nonetheless. And Young in particular has been making fantastic decisions. I’m interested to see if Alabama can find some success in the running game, something they were not able to do against Florida. At the end of the day, I’m going to Alabama to take care of business at home, although I think it’s going to be close and could come down to who has the ball last. Lane might have some wrinkles up his sleeve that turns the game, but I’ll put my money on Saban for now.
#1 Alabama 41 - #12 Ole Miss 38
The Waco Kid: Lane Kiffin enjoys the spotlight too much and to Saban, that is rat poison. I can somewhat agree, with all the interviews going on the Rebs’ head coach should be keeping his head down and in the film room 24/7, but rather he is entertaining and growing HIS brand. He has to know that the Big Nick Energy will be filling Tuscaloosa on Saturday and the Crimson Tide are looking to put him in his place. And do that they will. Ole Miss will score, sure, but at the end of the day so will Alabama. It all comes down to the top defense in this one and I think we all know who that falls to. Plus, I don’t think the GOAT likes it when he cannot embarrass former employees on national television. Corral throws for 2, Young throws for 4 and the Tide put it away with two on the ground and one on the defensive side. As simple as that, don’t overthink it.
#1 Alabama 48 - #12 Ole Miss 31
South Carolina vs. Troy 3:30 ET on SEC Network (USC -7)
Bossman Slim: Troy has SEC scalps on the wall. Recent scalps. In 2017, the Trojans walked into the Valley of the Shadow of Death in Baton Rouge and beat the mighty Tigers in front of 99,000 rabid LSU fans. What’s more, Troy got paid nearly $1 million to get that dub. How’d that one taste, Tigers? History could repeat itself today...but it won’t. This Troy team is not as good as the one that beat LSU. This South Carolina team is not as good as USC teams we’ve been accustomed to, like...not even 6-6 good, but they’re still better than Troy. Luke Doty is starting at QB, and that’s the difference.
South Carolina 27 - Troy 16
The Hammer: South Carolina stinks but so does Troy who is currently 2-2 with losses to Liberty and Louisiana Monroe. If Troy was a really good group of 5 team, which they have been at times in the past, I might pick the Trojans, but not this year. Luke Doty has been decent since returning and the Gamecock defense is respectable. I know Gamecock fans will be hoping that Kevin Harris can get it going and maybe this is the game he does, but I’ll believe it when I see it. Look for Shame Beamer to get the real USC back on track and in the win column though, even if the ground game struggles.
South Carolina 23 - Troy 17
The Waco Kid: Troy may have been an upset game preseason but after their start on the year you can mark this as a USC W. The only embarrassing loss the Gamecocks have had is to Georgia and I think most teams in the east are destined to lose to the Dawgs. South Carolina played Kentucky in a close game and Troy is no Kentucky. I expect DEMAND to see Zeb Noland back on the field as starting QB. Doty has been alright but he plays at the same level as the former grad assistant and lacks knowledge and experience. Noland is not the guy but you can’t help but root for a guy like that. The Cocks have to get back to the ground and pound offense they have been so used to over the past decade. Kevin Harris can lead them there and I think this is a game he can get it going.
South Carolina 38 - Troy 17
Late Games
#10 Florida at Kentucky 6:00 ET on ESPN (Florida -8.5)
This Gator is lost. Hopefully he finds their way to the massive Kroger on Saturday. (Photo: @GatorsFB)
Bossman Slim: Many people, including me, wondered how Auburn could be ranked but not Kentucky a few weeks ago. I was wrong. Kentucky has crashed HARD back to earth (not that Auburn should be ranked either). Our friend Steven Willis of Positively Ole Miss has compared Will Levis to Kenny Trill...and with each passing week, it looks more and more like he might be right. UK can still run the ball, but that won’t be enough to beat a talented and rising Florida Gators team. The Gators have found their groove on offense, and Anthony Richardson might be back this week to offer a change of pace from Emory Jones, who also seems to have found his rhythm. Gators steal all the groceries this week in The Giant Grocery Store.
#10 Florida 38 - Kentucky 17
The Hammer: Kentucky’s offense and passing game has come back down to earth since their hot start, and the shine is off Will Levis. He’s been pretty mediocre in his last two games and the real hero of this offense in 2021 is Chris Rodriguez. That said, Rodriguez and the other running backs can’t stop fumbling. For the Wildcats to keep this one close, they need to take care of the ball. No more fumbles and interceptions, fellas. We’ve seen flashes so they are capable, and Wan’Dale Robinson remains a dynamic threat out the outside, but Florida’s defense is no joke. They held Alabama to 31 points, and no offense to Kentucky but they are a far cry from Alabama. Emory Jones has seemingly settled in after a rough start, putting forth his best performance a week ago against Tennessee. I think Florida’s balanced offense and solid defense will lead them to a road victory here with relative ease. The environment at Kroger Field (terrible name) will be rocking so it could be close for a while as Florida is not known for fast starts but the Gators are too much in the end.
#10 Florida 38 - Kentucky 24
The Waco Kid: This one may be closer than fans think. With Will Levis leading the charge for the Wildcats and a sensational ground game behind Chris Rodriguez, I think this is the upset of the day. Nothing about the Gators has wowed me throughout the season. Yes, they played Bama close but in all honesty, the Tide didn’t sever the jugular when they should have and it came back to bite them. This ultimately comes down to if Kentucky can hold onto the dang ball. They have more fumbles than a Joe Biden speech addressing the state of the union. Ouch. If Levis has over 200 and Rodriguez has over 100 this game is over. The Florida offense is OK but at least one other East team, besides Georgia, has to topple the Swamp butts and I think a fall Lexington night could prove to bring the perfect storm.
Kentucky 30 - #10 Florida 24
#15 Texas A&M at Mississippi State 7:00 ET on SEC Network (A&M -7)
Bossman Slim: A&M has looked BAD against P5 competition this year. It comes down to many different factors that are all intertwined. The defense is not the issue, as they have an elite defense who will keep them in games. It’s the offense that has looked anemic, as QB play, O-line play, and receiver play haven’t been *NSYNC all year. Jimbo needs to change it up on offense and go No Strings Attached this week to show Mississippi State some different wrinkles, otherwise, it’s going to be Bye Bye Bye to the Aggies season. This I Promise You - Mississippi State can win this game, and their defense matchups up well against A&M. I think being at home in front of the 12th Man gives the Aggies just enough push to get it done in a low-scoring affair.
#15 Texas A&M 24 - Mississippi State 21
The Hammer: I would love to say this is a “get right” game for Texas A&M considering how poor they have looked offensively, but I don't see it. Mississippi State has a top 10 run defense in the nation, and A&M needs to be able to run the ball if their offense has a chance. We saw Jimbo put the game in Calzada’s hands against Arkansas asking him to throw 36 times compared to just 17 combined carries from Spiller and Achane, and it didn't work. At all. The Aggies scored just 10 points. So I expect them to commit to running the ball here, I’m just not sure how much running room they will find with that beat-up offensive line against a solid Bulldog front. Thankfully, the Texas A&M defense is still elite, especially in the secondary. Mississippi State’s offense is putting up decent numbers but has not been very efficient so far. A lot of short throws, shallow crossing routes, but not really challenging teams over the top. I’m looking for the Aggie defense to have a great night and win this game for A&M in a close one.
#15 Texas A&M 17 - Mississippi State 13
The Waco Kid: I worry about this one for the Fightin’ Texas Ags. Confidence is low after a detrimental loss to Arkansas. This team could stand up and compete or they could look like a deer in headlights and wait until they get hit. What we all learned last week was Calzada may not be the guy, unfortunately, that means there is no other guy at A&M until Haynes King can make a recovery. State has been unpredictable this year, they win, they lose, they cannot get it together week after week. The Pirate knows College Station all too well and there are no ports anywhere near, so unfortunately I do not think he will be able to commandeer a win in this one. The Aggie defense is too good and will hold MSU under 13, while the Bulldogs have a good defense of their own TAMU will be able to score at least four times. Good luck slowing that rush attack.
#15 Texas A&M 37 - Mississippi State 9
Vanderbilt vs. UConn 7:30 ET on ESPNU (Vanderbilt -14.5)
Bossman Slim: This is what I’m saying. This is a night game, but Arkansas-Georgia is a noon game? What are we doing? Down with ESPN. “The Worldwide Leader” my ass. That channel only does two things right anymore. GameDay and SEC Network. Beyond that, total mess. ESPN is unwatchable except for GameDay and live college football. FIGURE IT OUT. Tickets to this one are going for $1, and if you do the math with inflation, that’s basically FO FREE. Forgive me for not caring.
Vanderbilt 28 - UConn 16
The Hammer: Potentially one of the worst games you will see all season, especially with an SEC team involved. These two teams are desperately fighting for their place in the worst 10 teams in FBS. Give me Vandy though. At least Vandy looked like they had a pulse against Colorado State. That isn’t saying much but UConn is currently 0-5 and has lost by a combined 137 points, good for a 27.4 average margin of defeat. If Vanderbilt loses this game I suggest Clark Lea retires just like Randy Edsall did mid-season.
Vanderbilt 28 - UConn 17
The Waco Kid: This has the night slot because it may be the best, worst game that college football has ever witnessed. I cannot remember but I believe this is a UConn team that started all freshman at the beginning of the year. Even if you’re Vanderbilt you have to be licking your chops for this one. I think this would be a great basketball game but I will enjoy sitting and laughing while these two teams play football. At the end of the day as soon as something better comes on, consider the channel changed.
Vanderbilt 23 - UConn 13
#22 Auburn vs. LSU 9:00 ET on SEC Network (LSU -3.5)
Bossman Slim: Auburn? Yeah, no. They’re a mess. LSU? They look like they’re getting things on track. A three-game win streak for the Tigers and some confidence for Max Johnson, plus the friendly confines of Death Valley at night will be too much for Auburn to overcome. Bo Nix or TJ Finley, it won’t matter. LSU is the better team right now, and Auburn has issues that won’t get fixed on Saturday.
LSU 27 - #22 Auburn 21
The Hammer: Let’s be clear, neither one of these teams are playing great football right now. Auburn was bailed out by the refs (again) and needed a miraculous play on 4th and 9 from backup QB TJ Finley after Bo Nix was benched to beat Georgia State. Not Georgia...Georgia State. Meanwhile, LSU got a much-needed win in Starkville but the Bulldogs dominated LSU statistically, outgaining the Tigers 486 to 343. LSU also only managed 63 yards rushing, averaging 2.3 yards per rush. So what happens in this one? I think we’ll see another sloppy game from both teams. Auburn’s defense should be able to shut down the LSU ground game so it will be on Max Johnson and Kayshon Boutte’s shoulders again. The problem is Auburn’s offense can’t score much either, regardless of if Nix or Finley is at QB. Since this one is at night in Death Valley, give me the Bayou Bengals.
LSU 27 - #22 Auburn 20
The Waco Kid: This is a must-win for both teams. The last time Auburn won at Death Valley was 1999, and everyone was expecting Y2K so they played their hearts out. Well, that kind of seems like the way 2020 and 2021 have been going. The unexpected is around every corner and for that reason, give me Auburn. That and TJ Finley. If you think for one second War Eagle won’t release the former LSU QB on them, you are quite mistaken. Blo Wins may start the game but he will not end it. Finley and Bigsby in the backfield will be quite a task for a defense that gave up 21 to Central Michigan. Orgeron’s squad has yet to impress and I think it comes down to who’s more confident and that has to be the Blue and Orange. Harsin has the team in the right mindset and as long as correct personnel calls are made, this should be a W for AU.
#22 Auburn 23 - LSU 17