Unpacking the 247Sports “Blue-Chip Ratio”
Bud Elliot’s blue-chip ratio for 247Sports has become an offseason staple, and it’s scary accurate.
By: The Hammer
These four schools have assembled rosters capable of winning a national championship.
Early in June, Bud Elliot of 247Sports released his annual “Blue-Chip Ratio” column. We love reading it every year and wanted to break it down a bit further here on B&S.
For the uninitiated, the Blue-Chip Ratio (BCR) was formulated in 2013 and attempts to show how much talent it takes to win a national championship. The theory is that to win the national championship, college football programs need to sign more 4 and 5-star recruits than 2 and 3-star recruits over the prior 4 recruiting classes. This metric has been proven true as far back as modern recruiting rankings have existed, meaning every team that has won a national title has in fact signed more “blue chip” players than non-blue chip players in the prior 4 recruiting cycles.
As it currently stands, the BCR does not incorporate transfers. However, Elliot continues to closely monitor the transfer portal and how it impacts BCR. So much so that he even included a graphic in this year’s column on what the BCR would look like if transfers were included for reference. We’ll get to that later, but let’s dive into the teams that can win it all in 2023.
Unsurprisingly, the SEC is king in a talent-based metric. There are six SEC teams that have a BCR over 50%, with three of the top four and four of the top six most talented teams in the country in the conference. Add in the fact that Texas and Oklahoma, who both make this list comfortably, are joining the SEC in 2024 and it's not hard to see why the SEC keeps winning national title after national title. The Big Ten has three teams that make it, yet outside of Ohio State (85%), there are 5 SEC teams ahead of the next two Big Ten teams to make the list. Behind those two conferences, the Big 12, ACC, and Pac 12 all have two programs that qualified, although the Big 12 will have none next year when Texas and OU depart.
Enough about other conferences, though. Let’s talk about the SEC and what these numbers mean, or could mean this year. First off, Alabama having a 90% BCR is staggering. For all the grandstanding and whining Nick Saban has done recently about NIL, it hasn't slowed him down at all on the recruiting trail. Almost like he’s doing the same stuff everyone else is? I digress. It’s incredibly impressive and flies in the face of anyone claiming Saban and Alabama have fallen behind. Not winning a national championship since 2020 does not mean the Tide have fallen behind, and I seriously question your judgment if you buy into that. With talent like this, Alabama will be right in the mix for the SEC title and CFP in November per usual. Maybe they will lose a couple of close games like they did last year and ultimately don’t make it, but that’s why they call it a game of inches. Sometimes things don't break your way, but that doesn’t mean Alabama has lost a step. They haven’t.
The second observation is about Texas A&M. The talent is still there. Queue up the broken record. Everyone knows what a disaster the 2022 season was, but it really slaps you in the face when you see how talented the roster is. To be the fourth most talented team in college football and fail to make a bowl game the prior year is inexcusable. If you want to try and explain it away, A&M did have a ton of injuries last fall and a large portion of the blue chippers were true freshmen from the 2022 class who clearly were not ready to consistently contribute in the SEC. But I said it was inexcusable, so those don’t hold water. They might explain how a team that talented could go 9-3, or 8-4 in the worst-case scenario, but 5-7 is unfathomable.
If it’s any consolation to Aggies, there were other programs from the 2022 BCR list that fell flat on their face. Oklahoma had a BCR of 71% (just above the Aggies 70% in 2022) and went 6-6. Texas had a 68% BCR and went 8-4. Florida had a 60% BCR and went 6-6. And of course, Miami went 5-7 with a 55% BCR. So the Aggies weren’t alone in their disappointment, but none of those other programs had a coach in his fifth season. In fact, Florida, Oklahoma, and Miami had first-year head coaches. Again, what A&M did a year ago is mystifying.
There’s no more wiggle room for excuses for Jimbo Fisher and the Aggies in 2023 (Photo: Jonathan Bachman, Getty Images)
That was last year though. When you see a 73% BCR in 2023, it means they are still capable of making some noise if those players live up to their potential and are not burdened by an inadequate coaching staff. A lot was made of the transfer numbers out of College Station after the disastrous 2022 season, and rightfully so. A lot of players hit the portal. But even with that factored in, A&M still has a 67% BCR for 2023, which is the 5th highest in the country. Can Bobby Petrino resurrect the Aggie offense? Will the defense be able to stop the run? Time will tell but given the talent, don’t be surprised if A&M gets things turned around in 2023. If they don't, you have to think a coaching change is coming regardless of how insane the buyout is.
The other two schools with BCR numbers above 70% are LSU at 71% and Georgia at 77%. No surprise here, but these numbers emphasize why we saw those two square off in Atlanta last year for the SEC championship. Both will be right in the mix again in 2023, just like Alabama. I feel much stronger that LSU and Georgia will be knocking on the door than A&M. The Aggies could do it, but we need to see it and their track record is extremely suspect. With Georgia and LSU, we’ve seen it, especially Georgia who reeled off back-to-back national championships. Georgia is virtually a lock to play in the SEC championship while LSU seems to be neck and neck with Alabama.
Finally, Auburn and Florida bring up the rear in the SEC’s top six most talented teams competition. Given the turmoil at both schools in recent years, it’s a testament to the football programs overall. In spite of poor coaching and a general lack of institutional cohesion, these programs continue landing talented recruits. I’m skeptical that Billy Napier and Florida can live up to their talent expectations in 2023 given their questions at quarterback, general dysfunction, and a brutal schedule. They should make a bowl game but don’t expect them to challenge Georgia for the SEC East crown, despite what their BCR says. Auburn is the real wild card here as Hugh Freeze makes his triumphant (in his mind, at least) return to the SEC. Freeze is a proven winner everywhere he’s been, including the SEC. Given the talent on the Plains, it's very possible Auburn jumps up and surprises a few teams in 2023. I’m not ready to predict they actually do rise up and win a bunch of games, but it would not be nearly as surprising as an Arkansas or Mississippi State, for instance.
The consensus among pundits heading into 2023 seems to be that Alabama, LSU, and Georgia are the class of the conference. It’s those three in the top tier, and everyone else is behind them. The BCR numbers mostly bear that out with the exception of Texas A&M, who we covered thoroughly in this piece.
So what do we make of these numbers and how will it translate? It’s not that complex. Teams at the top of this list will be in the mix for the CFP come November unless they shoot themselves in the foot. Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, and LSU will all be in the mix. Teams like Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma, Oregon, Notre Dame, and the rest have some questions to answer before anyone can confidently say they are legitimate national title contenders, but the talent is on campus to make a run. And lastly, there are some teams on this list that simply won't compete for a title this year like Florida, Miami, and Auburn. It’ll be fun to see how all these teams pan out in 2023 and look back at the results relative to the talent on the roster.
