Hail State or Nail State? Bama Takes on Mississippi State

The Bulldogs have had two weeks to prepare for the Tide - will it matter?

By: Dave in Tuscaloosa

Photo: Dean Rutz / The Seattle Times

Coming off of an epic (at the time) upset week one over the defending national champion LSU Tigers, hopes and expectations were sky high for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. After all, they had taken down Coach O in emphatic fashion, tossing aside the Tigers on their home turf, 44-34. New Bulldog quarterback K.J. Costello, a transfer from Stanford, ran Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” offense to near perfection, throwing for an SEC record 623 yards and 4 touchdowns. The SEC would have to take notice of the Bulldogs, by God, and suddenly Leach’s already celebrated arrival in Starkville sent the faithful through the roof. Hotty Toddy and the Lane Train at Ole Miss could go to hell as far as the Bulldog faithful were concerned, as the state, and maybe the SEC, would be ruled by the Bulldogs...and not the fellas from Athens, but from the place affectionately known as “Stark-Vegas”. What a debut!

The ecstasy lasted exactly one week. Losses to Arkansas (21-14...ugh), Kentucky (24-2...what, two stinking points?!?!) and Texas A&M (28-14...at least the Bulldogs scored a touchdown) have brought expectations for the Bulldogs crashing back to reality.  In the losses, Costello has struggled with turnovers, throwing for 1 touchdown while tossing 8 picks. He is throwing for a lot of yards, averaging 317 yards per game. Offensively, the Bulldogs are second in the conference in passing and 8th overall on offense, yet they are dead last in the conference (yes, worse than Vandy) in turnover margin at -10. The offense has the potential (as shown against LSU) to be potent, although presently they rank 13th in the conference in scoring (19 points per game).  The loss of star tailback Kylin Hill, who was injured in the Arkansas loss and has opted to forgo the rest of the season and begin preparations for the NFL draft, does not help. Mississippi State needs a sure win, a true cupcake to get back on track as the Bulldogs need to get well. 

So, who best to get well against than the Crimson Tide of Alabama...on the road...ranked second...and sporting a 12-game winning streak against the Bulldogs? Don’t sweat it, MSU fans...Tennessee has lost 14 straight to Alabama, so you can say “At least we aren’t Tennessee.”

Photo: Marvin Gentry, USA TODAY Sports

Bulldogs fans: you aren’t these guys. You’re just a close second.

There is hope, MSU faithful, as you did beat Alabama in Nick Saban’s first season in a thriller, 17-12. However, you might want to be concerned about the Tide’s potent offense behind Mac “Daddy” Jones, who is averaging 398 yards passing per game...and tailback Najee Harris’ 14 touchdowns on the year so far (Mississippi State has a TOTAL of 9 touchdowns scored this season)...and a potent receiving corps (minus star Jaylen Waddle...get better soon, J-Man!) filled with a nice mixture of veteran receivers and young guns ready to shine. Deep breath, Bulldog fans, as Bama’s offense ranks first in the conference in total offense, scoring offense (48 points per game), and rank second in red-zone efficiency, scoring on 27 out of 29 trips (93%...not bad). True, Mississippi State’s offense has the potential to be potent, yet Alabama’s offense already is.

The loss of the Tide’s Jaylen Waddle has saddened all of college football, and it has been inspiring to see the outpouring of care and concern for #17. Moving forward, how will the Tide’s passing offense differ without one of the most dynamic players in the nation? Fear not, Bama fans, as Mac Jones still has plenty of weapons surrounding him, including wideouts DaVonta Smith and John Metchie, who continue to dazzle as potent deep threats. Waddle’s replacement, sophomore Slade Bolden, is a tough, solid, versatile player that does not possess the breakaway speed to be a deep threat, yet will man the slot and serve as a dependable possession receiver.

Photo: Alabama Athletics

87 should factor into the offense more with Waddle out for the season.

Expect to see several freshman studs who have been waiting for their turn in the receiver rotation to have an opportunity to make an impact on the field. Also expect the Tide to use senior tight end Miller Forristall more in the passing game, and don’t be surprised to see offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian use backs such as Najee Harris more, swinging them out of the backfield. Bama fans should see their offense continue to produce yards and points, as there is too much talent coupled with a massive offensive line. In addition, Sark continues to rehabilitate his career by leading the Tide offense to new heights. 

If the Bulldogs do have an advantage in this game, it’s on the defensive side of the ball. MSU ranks #1 in the SEC in passing defense (giving up 192 yards per game) and total defense (296 yards given up per game), and stands at #6 in scoring defense (27 points per game; Are we sure Mike Leach is coaching this team?).  Conversely, Bama’s defense has shown improvement in the last two weeks, yet still ranks in the bottom half of the conference in total defense (10th) and passing defense (11th). The D finds itself in the middle of the pack in scoring defense (#5, giving up 26 points per game).  

Photo: USA Today Sports

The offense was expected to be the strength of this team - but the defense has been the bright spot for State.

It will be interesting to see how Bama’s strength (offense) matches up against MSU’s strength (defense). The last time the Tide saw a similar strength on strength matchup was against Georgia, as going into that game, the Dawgs from Athens sported the conference’s top defense.  One dose of Mac “Daddy” Jones and 41 points later, Georgia no longer reigns at the top of the conference’s defensive hierarchy. Could the same happen on Saturday against a different group of Bulldogs? Mississippi State has had two weeks to prepare for the Tide, Bama continues its quest for conference and national supremacy without it’s most dynamic player, and the Tide has an off week next week before traveling to Baton Rouge. Could State catch the Tide looking ahead?

I’m thinking...no. The Tide will be focused and will continue to show a hunger for reclaiming the national title.  After all, it has been two years since the champions hailed from Tuscaloosa. The Leach era at State will be a success, but such success on the scoreboard will have to wait. The Tide rolls on…

Alabama 45

Mississippi State 20