B&S SEC bowl game by game previews
By: Bossman Slim, The Waco Kid
Christmas is behind us, bowl season is in full swing, and 2020 is (mercifully) almost over. And today, the SEC gets back in action as their bowl games begin. There will be eight games featuring an SEC team in the next four days, so buckle up, finish off the last of that Egg Nog, and find your favorite spot on the couch. It’s gonna be fun.
Wednesday, December 30th
Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic
#7 Florida vs. #6 Oklahoma - 8:00 PM ET on ESPN (OU -3)
Photo: via @GatorsFB
When this game was announced, I would have picked Florida every day and twice on Sunday. And then a plague came - no, not COVID-19 - a rash of opt-outs from star players for the Gators. First, it was top-threat Kyle Pitts (who accounted for 12 TDs this year), followed by do-it-all speed demon and leading receiver Kadarius Toney, along with senior wideout Trevon Grimes. Barrett Sallee of CBS Sports also reported that Jacob Copeland, the leading receiver after the opt-outs, will miss the Cotton Bowl due to positive tests from COVID-19. There are also rumors that shoe bandit CB Marco Wilson will opt-out to focus on the NFL Draft, but that is yet to be confirmed. Ouch. Oklahoma also had an opt-out in starting CB Tre Brown, and second-leading rusher T.J. Pledger announced he was entering the transfer portal, but neither should hurt the Sooners too much.
Oklahoma started the season tripping all over themselves, losing in successive weeks to Kansas State and (at the time unranked) Iowa State. In both games, OU lost within one score and had multiple chances to win the games. After that, the Sooners beat Texas in a thrilling 4 OT Red River Shootout that began a turnaround culminating in 7-straight wins and another Big 12 Championship, OU’s 6th in a row. An impressive streak, considering their main rival Texas has not won the conference since 2009 when Colt McCoy still roamed the gridiron in Austin. OU has beaten teams they were supposed to handily but struggled against teams they normally whip. There is no excuse for the Kansas State loss, and a 27-14 win over a 2-7 Baylor team that finished 9th in the Big 12 doesn’t produce much confidence. Iowa State proved themselves this year (despite our petty Twitter beef with Cyclone nation), so that loss is excusable. Minus the Baylor game, Lincoln Riley and star freshman QB Spencer Rattler got on the same page as the season went on, but on the whole, it hasn’t been as seamless a transition as it was to Kyler Murray or Jalen Hurts. One of the surprises of the year was the improvement of Oklahoma’s defense, which has been the Sooners Achilles heel in previous seasons. The OU defense ranked 3rd in the Big 12 in total defense, giving up just 21.9 points per game. With the Florida attack being pass-heavy and all those air threats opting-out, the OU defense is licking their chops.
For Florida, this will also be a test of getting up for the game. Since the Gators win at Tennessee on December 5th, Mullen’s squad has been taking punch after punch. First, it was the gut-wrenching loss to a very down LSU team, followed by a valiant effort against #1 Alabama in the SEC Championship Game that ultimately fell short. After that, it was opt-out after opt-out, which to some degree shows that the feeling inside the locker room is that it was playoff or bust. So, can Mullen rally the remaining troops to get up for a (still very significant) game against #6 Oklahoma? Without all those weapons for Trask and the overall mood surrounding the program, it’s going to be a tall task. As the illustrious Coffetown announcer Will Blankenship says: if you can’t get your team up for this one, even though it isn’t the Playoff, “your woods wet.”
Even with the opt-outs, I like the Gators in a squeaker. Florida LB James Houston gave the Sooners bulletin board material when he said “Oklahoma is a good matchup but they’re not on our level, they’re not SEC, they’re not the Florida Gators.” We agree James...but now it’s time to back it up, and all those opt-outs just made it that much harder. Put up or shut up time.
#7 Florida 35
#6 Oklahoma 31
Thursday, December 31st
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Mississippi State vs. #24 Tulsa 12:00 PM ET on ESPN (Tulsa -2.5)
Unlike Florida, these two teams haven’t had to worry too much about opt-outs. Half of Mississippi State’s team opted into the transfer portal earlier in the season when the pirate ship started taking on water and Mike Leach threatened to purge the roster. So there wasn’t much more fat to trim. Tulsa has played hardnosed football all season and their team knows how much a win over an SEC opponent would mean for the program, even if that SEC team finished the regular season 3-7. One opt-out for the Golden Hurricanes will hurt - that of Zaven Collins, who won the Nagurski Award, given to the nation’s top defensive player. He’ll begin preparing for the NFL Draft - so I guess not everyone understands what this could mean for the Tulsa program.
Mississippi State started the year blazing hot, beating defending National Champs LSU in Baton Rouge. It seemed like the Leach Star Wars offense would create problems for many SEC teams and that the Bulldogs rebuild might be on the fast track. Not so fast, my friend. LSU was quickly exposed as a shell of its 2019 self, and the wheels fell off of Mississippi State faster than you can say “cowbell.” Stanford-transfer KJ Costello, who burst into the Heisman conversation after the LSU win, was exposed in short order, becoming a turnover machine. The Bulldogs would go on to lose 7/8, interrupted only by a win over doormat Vanderbilt. Even that game was a struggle, as the Bulldogs won 24-17. Freshman QB Will Rogers has shown flashes, and it’s obvious Leach now views him as the future. The defense has also shown promise, giving up 26.4 points per game (good for 6th in the SEC), and holding the likes of Texas A&M to 28, Ole Miss to 31, and Auburn to 24. The Bulldogs showed some serious life in a win over a decent Missouri team, blowing out the Tigers 51-32.
Photo: Kara Hoffman, Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Tulsa QB Zach Smith leads a dangerous Golden Hurricanes team.
Tulsa is no joke. In fact, ESPN’s matchup predictor gives the Golden Hurricanes a 60% chance to win this one. Tulsa opened the season by putting everyone on notice, taking #11 Oklahoma State to the wire at home. The Golden Hurricanes then beat two ranked teams in #11 UCF and #19 SMU (both teams finished the regular season unranked), and took #9 Cincinnati to the wire in the AAC Championship Game, losing by a field goal. Led by senior QB Zach Smith (no, not Ohio State program wrecker Zach Smith, just another generic American Zach Smith), who is a former Baylor signal-caller. They don’t overwhelm you with a high flying offense, but score enough to win and use their suffocating defense, ranked 26th in the FBS, to finish off opponents. Their 3rd down defense is top-notch, ranking #16 in the country, boasting a 32.8% opponent conversion rate on the year. For Mississippi State, that spells trouble...the Bulldogs can’t move the chains on 3rd down to stay on the field. The Bulldogs rank 115th in the nation in 3rd down conversion rate. Even in their recent blowout win over Mizzou, State was only 3/9 on third down. Tulsa’s Achilles heel is their discipline - they are one of the most penalized teams in the nation, coming in at 126/127 in the FBS in penalty yards per game.
Mississippi State will put up a fight, but this is a tough Tulsa team. Give me generic American Zach Smith and Tulsa in a close, low-scoring affair. Both of these teams can play some defense, but in the end, the Golden Hurricanes will score just enough to pull out a signature win over an SEC team.
#24 Tulsa 31
Mississippi State 27
CANCELED: Mercari Texas Bowl
Arkansas vs TCU
What the hell is Mercari? Besides that, we were looking forward to this matchup. Unfortunately, COVID and injury issues within the TCU program doomed this one. Arkansas ends the season 3-7, but with much hope for the future. A big decision looms for Feleipe Franks - does he test the NFL waters or come back for one more ride at Arkansas to try and boost his draft stock? Much of the Arkansas defense is returning, and 2021 is setting up for Arkansas to take another step back to relevance.
Bossman Slim
Friday, January 1st
Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl
#9 Georgia vs. #8 Cincinnati 12:00 PM ET on ESPN (Georgia -7)
Let me take you back to 2007. A year when Steve Jobs introduced the world to the first-ever iPhone, Barack Obama entered the presidential race, Barry Bonds broke Hank Aaron’s untouchable home run record (*), Peyton Manning won his first Super Bowl, and who could forget Atlanta superstar Michael Vick getting in trouble for his role in an illegal dogfighting ring. I even won my first state championship as a Texas high school football player that year. All of these defining moments and still the image seared into my mind, the picture that will last a lifetime and speak more words than humanly possible on the importance of hard work and the heart of a Dawg can be found at the end of overtime in the Fiesta Bowl.
Photo: Ross D. Franklin, MuskogeePhoenix.com
Boise State had knocked out a giant, perennial powerhouse Oklahoma. Many think this year’s Peach Bowl between Georgia and undefeated Cincinnati follows this storyline to a T. Analysts and networks believe that the 2007 Fiesta Bowl will somehow serve as a retrograde forecasting tool to predict the outcome of this game. With all due respect, everyone that believes that may need to take a deep breath and enjoy the smell of rain falling on the warm Atlanta concrete because obviously, the fumes from having their head stuck up their asses have started to damage the cerebrum. This is no parable of David and Goliath. This is an overrated team whose top competitors from the season include USF, UCF, and Tulsa playing an SEC team who has two losses to two top 10 teams, one of which will probably be taking home the Dr. Pepper National Championship trophy in a few weeks.
Please, name 5 decent football teams that start with the University of South or the University of Central anything, I’ll wait…..South Carolina? WRONG. Southern California? JOKE. My point being, if this is your top competition on the year do you really deserve to be a top 10 team, even if you are undefeated? Has the NCAA stooped so low as to hand out participation rankings? This is obviously an ongoing internal struggle within the CFP committee as well. Georgia is not content with their season and Kirby Smart, regardless of how he carries himself, is pissed to be sitting at #9. An angry Smart and bloodthirsty Dawg team is not what Cincinnati signed up for by going undefeated. The path they were praying for was through an Iowa State or Coastal Carolina type team, maybe even BYU. That way they could pronounce themselves as undefeated National Champions and join the ranks of Central Florida in the “Hall of Irrelevance.”
JT Daniels and Zamir White will lead the charge into Atlanta to face a Bearcat defense that has only held one mediocre team to under 10 points this season. Cincinnati does have a chance to pull this one off if hell freezes over and snow engulfs the Georgia highways and the Dawgs are unable to make the hour and a half drive from Athens. Barring an act of nature, one of the last four undefeated teams in the nation will find themselves with a double-digit loss to begin the New Year. Eat your black-eyed peas Cincinnati, and make a New Year’s resolution to play a competitive schedule.
#9 Georgia 48
#8 Cincinnati 30
Vrbo Citrus Bowl
Auburn vs. #14 Northwestern 1:00 PM ET on ABC (Northwestern -3.5)
My how the times have changed. This game will feature a top defense and an offense with big-play capabilities. Roles however have been reversed from what history shows as these teams’ strengths. Northwestern may have one of the best defensive units in the country and Auburn, well they have been potent on offense in some games and silenced in others. I am not entirely sure how the Big 10 runner up got paired with the #5 team in the SEC, but either way I think we are in for a surprisingly good game.
Auburn’s only hope is to get Tank Bigsby rolling in the first half to take some pressure off of hot head quarterback Bo Nix. If Northwestern can rattle Nix, he will start making stupid mistakes because of emotions and will be ineffective with the ball. The Tigers cannot afford for this to happen, especially after the recent news that top receiver Anthony Schwartz is expected to opt-out of the game. Bigsby has to be the flame to ignite this offense and will most likely carry the team on his back until newly hired Head Coach Bryan Harsin decides if he can trust the decision making of a quarterback with the emotional maturity of a pubescent teen who just got dumped right before the prom after-party. The Tiger’s defense doesn’t have to do much, if they can force one turnover that may be enough to secure a bowl win for the SEC.
Northwestern will have to find a way to put points on the board. In a game against a team like Auburn they cannot expect to score 20 and hold the Blue and Orange to under that. It is just not a feasible game plan against a running back with power and breakaway speed. Quarterback Peyton Ramsey cannot throw the interceptions he has become accustomed to and expect that Wildcat defense to make up for his mistakes. There are no real offensive threats on this Northwestern team, which should be a huge worry for Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald, the reincarnation of Mike Ditka.
That’s Pat Ditka to you.
Northwestern is a heck of a team but lack the offensive firepower to score more than 28 points MAX. Tank will steamroll through the Wildcat defense and bring power and size the likes of which have not been seen in Orlando since a man by the name of Shaquille O’ Neal dominated opponents on the hardwood. After all is said and done, Auburn will be taking a trip to Disney World. My mistake, nevermind, this is the Citrus Bowl, not the Super Bowl. Enjoy your win at The Mall at Millenia.
Auburn 31
#14 Northwestern 16
The Waco Kid
College Football Playoff Semifinal
Rose Bowl Game Presented by Capital One
#1 Alabama vs. #4 Notre Dame 4:00 PM ET on ESPN (Alabama -20)
Photo: Student Sports
This man is about to carve up Notre Dame.
In the famous words of the immortal Keith Jackson, it’s “the Granddaddy of them all!” But this time, Grandaddy is in Arlington, Texas, instead of its usual home in Pasadena, because apparently, it’s too dangerous to play football games in California now, even though they played many games in the state during the season. OK.
Dave in Tuscaloosa will have a full preview ahead of the game, but we’ve got a starter preview for you here. We’ll make this simple: Alabama is going to mop the field with the Golden Domers, lighting up the scoreboard on their way to a definitive, leave-no-doubt victory. Alabama is like Johnny Walker Black Label - rare and near perfect, while Notre Dame is Crown Royal. Pretty good and in a solid class, but not quite elite. And the Notre Dame defense? As real as Manti Te’o’s college girlfriend. Clemson exposed as much in the ACC title game. How Notre Dame is in this game, beyond TV dollars and branding, is beyond us. A&M wins 7-straight in an all-SEC schedule, losing only to the #1 Tide, but Notre Dame gets in? We’d have rather seen Alabama-A&M round two. The Aggies are a different team now, and it would have been a fun rematch.
But that is not the case. Instead, we get to see the Tide, with two Heisman finalists (should have been three with Najee Harris), wreck the Fighting Irish yet again. The Tide defense will follow the Clemson blueprint and put the clamps on Ian Book and co.
I have no doubt about this one. Roll Tide and see you in the National Championship.
#1 Alabama 48
#4 Notre Dame 24
Bossman Slim
Saturday, January 2nd
Taxslayer Gator Bowl
Kentucky vs. #23 NC State 12:00 PM ET on ESPN (Kentucky -2.5)
Wait, what? Surely that line cannot be right. These were the overwhelming thoughts that flooded my mind when I realized Kentucky was favored in this matchup. I love the SEC and this blog is all about the SEC, but really? The Wildcats are like the KFC drive-thru. You know you will be getting alright food for a decent price but you don’t know just how much they may screw up your order. They might surprise you 4 out of 10 times, get everything right and come away with that customer service W, but the majority of the time their goal is to be as mediocre as possible so they can keep people interested but also make fans think twice about liking them too much. This has been the Kentucky curse that has plagued the football team for years and has no signs of slowing down.
UK has been on the giving and receiving end of blowouts this season, as well as close, competitive games within the SEC. They are a team that cannot be understood because their play has given no definitive answer on whether they are good, bad, or in between. To be perfectly honest, a new team shows up every week. The Wildcats followed a blowout of Tennessee with a loss to Missouri. An eleven-point loss to a top Georgia team was then proceeded by a 3 point win over a horrible Vanderbilt team begging the question, WHAT IS GOING ON IN LEXINGTON? The best way to describe this team is in the words of a brilliant new age philosopher:
“You're hot then you're cold
You're yes, then you're no
You're in, then you're out
You're up, then you're down”
Kentucky fans’ feelings for most of 2020.
This quote explains Kentucky’s season perfectly and elaborates on the fact that any given week they could be a sneaky competitor. However, in this scenario, I see the NC State Wolfpack’s roar being just as big as their bite and that is something supernatural, and possibly extraterrestrial to this Wildcat team. UK quarterback Terry Wilson Jr. has got to ignite the offensive light, let it shine, own the night like the fourth of July, and be nearly flawless in this one to bring home another bowl win for the conference. There are maybe three games in this bowl season that I am unsure of an SEC win in, and this is one of them. State is not overly impressive but this game will be a two-score win by whichever team shows up to play.
My money is on the Pack.
#23 NC State 38
Kentucky 27
The Waco Kid
Outback Bowl
Ole Miss vs. #11 Indiana 12:30 PM ET on ABC (Indiana -7.5)
The last ride for the 2020 #LaneTrain.
Ole Miss has been renamed for the bowl game to “Ole Missin’ Everybody.” The Rebels’ high flying offense is decimated by injuries and opt-outs. Leading receiver Elijah Moore and star TE Kenny Yeboah opted-out at the end of the regular season, and leading rusher and First Team All-SEC RB Jerrion Ealy hasn’t practiced since an injury in their finale against LSU. And the list goes on. Matt Corral will have his hands full with a solid Hoosier defense and a shell of his usual offensive unit.
But Indiana is dealing with their own injury issues. QB Michael Penix Jr., who was the star of the early half of the season for the upstart Hoosiers, has been out after tearing his ACL against Maryland in late November. Jack Tuttle, Penix’s replacement, played well in relief, enough to get Indiana a win of #16 Wisconsin 14-6. Against a porous Ole Miss defense, it should be better sledding for the Hoosier’s offense. On the other side of the ball, Indiana has the 37th best defense in the country and boasts 4 All-Big Ten defensive selections, a school record. They’re no joke. Despite being the 3rd best team in the country in total offense, Ole Miss will be challenged by this defense, especially with the disruptions on offense from opt-out, injury, and COVID.
This will be a lower scoring game than Ole Miss fans have become accustomed to, as Indiana’s defense capitalizes on Ole Miss’s personnel issues. Sorry Rebs - Indiana does just enough to get it done in this one.
#11 Indiana 38
Ole Miss 34
Capital One Orange Bowl
#5 Texas A&M vs. #17 North Carolina 8:00 PM ET on ESPN (A&M -7.5)
If Ole Miss is missing everybody, North Carolina may be in even worse shape. For this team, everything was in front of them and the sky was the limit. Now, the ceiling is the roof. Opt-out after opt-out has decimated the Tar Heels offense and taken their defensive leader out as well. Chazz Surratt, the Tar Heels leading tackler, 1,000-yard running backs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter, and leading wide receiver Dyami Brown have all opted-out, leaving QB Sam Howell with a barren cupboard. How can they not be excited to play in the Orange Bowl? UNC doesn’t make games like this often, and you have the chance to knock off the #5 team in the country to boot. The Tar Heels wood is wet.
A&M meanwhile has zero opt-outs, in a testament to the changing culture in College Station. OL Carson Green alluded to as much, saying there were no thoughts of opt-outs from A&M’s senior class. He felt that they owed it to their school and the fans to finish out the season strong. And that’s exactly what they’re going to do. The Aggies have won 7-straight in the SEC. They boast one of the top defenses in the country (#11), and there are whispers that the fabled “Wrecking Crew” of Aggie teams past may be back. Kellen Mond is playing the best football of his career, and the offensive line should just be called CAT, because they are bulldozers.
With the top players in North Carolina opting out and the Aggies on a roll, we expect A&M to take care of business against their old nemesis Mack Brown. The Aggies will carry momentum into 2021 and finish with their highest final ranking in school history (#4), when Notre Dame gets obliterated by Alabama.
Aggies by two touchdowns.
#5 Texas A&M 41
#17 North Carolina 27
Bossman Slim