B&S Week 11 game by game previews
By: The Hammer, Bossman Slim, The Waco Kid
It’s December. The days are short. The air is cold. And the games mean more. Another full Saturday of SEC games is upon us, and storylines abound. Saban is back on the sidelines and is out to continue his revenge tour in Baton Rouge, where LSU is the largest underdog for a defending national champion in 40 years. A&M looks to keep their playoff hopes alive against Gus Malzahn and his magic. Florida looks to keep pace as well when they take on hated rival Tennessee.
Grab a coat, fire up the smoker and let’s get it on.
Early Games
#5 Texas A&M at Auburn - 12:00 PM ET on ESPN (A&M -7)
Photo: via @AggieFootball
Our friends at The Junction Blog put together a full preview of this one, which you can read here. You can read a snippet below:
“I expect this one to be close for several reasons. First, Auburn and Malzahn need a win. The Tigers have been dominated by the only two ranked teams they have played. Fans expect Auburn to beat A&M, regardless of the rankings and there is a massive difference between 5-4 and 6-3. The Tigers will be fired up for this game and I think they will play well. Second, as previously mentioned, Malzahn always seems to find crazy ways to win games just when he needs them. Every time the Auburn faithful start clamoring for him to be fired, ole Gus finds a way to rattle off some wins and flip the narrative. Then he signs a massive contract extension. That’s how it’s done in Auburn, Alabama. So all things considered, this is the perfect game for Auburn and Malzahn to throw in some trickery and win a game not many expect them too. I heard someone say one time that Gus Malzahn has a little cockroach in him - he just won’t die. I think that’s an apt description.
The last reason I expect this one to be close is the location: Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn, and more importantly Bo Nix, play much better at home this year. Maybe Bo Nix is the next Kellen Mond in that regard. But the numbers don’t lie. At home, Nix is 68/105 (65%) for 940 yards, 8 touchdowns and1 interception. On the road, Nix is 91/145 (63%), for 914 yards, 2 touchdowns, and 6 interceptions. Part of that could be the competition as both Bama and Georgia were on the road, but Nix also threw 3 picks against the Gamecocks. So something is going on there and I expect the home field Nix to show up this weekend.
Enough about Auburn. As I said in the LSU recap, I expect the Aggie offense to be much better this week. The LSU game was an outlier rather than the norm. Look for a heavy dose of Isaiah Spiller again this week as the Auburn defense has been relatively easy to run on, giving up 162 yards per game to their opponents. I think our offensive line returns to form and Spiller and Achane have good days running the ball.
Kellen Mond has to be much sharper too. Although we should be able to run on Auburn much better than we did against LSU, we need to have success through the air. Just like most defenses in the SEC, if Auburn isn't worried about getting beat deep, they will load the box and stop the run. There has to be some threat there to keep them honest. Reports are that Chase Lane is back practicing after he left the LSU game early so we should be at full strength in that department. Jimbo even said Demas will be ready to go after not suiting up last weekend.”
You can read more on The Junction Blog.
Texas A&M 34
Auburn 21
Arkansas at Missouri- 12:00 PM ET on SEC Network (Mizzou -3)
“Bro, that’s a sick rock you got. I like mine a little better though.”
Coming into the 2020 football season if you had told me that Mizzou would be 4-3 and Arkansas would be at 3-5 in December, I would have said you were nuts. I picked both teams to win just one game in the preseason. I thought having new, inexperienced head coaches would be a big issue with the lack of spring and summer practices, but I was wrong. Both Sam Pittman and Eli Drinkwitz have done incredible coaching jobs this fall and deserve a ton of credit.
Mizzou is led by a strong defense that ranks 3rd in the SEC, giving up just 348 yards per game. Offensively, the Tigers have been solid averaging 403 yards per game behind a solid debut season from freshman quarterback Connor Bazelak and a physical running back in Larry Roundtree III. Arkansas defense has been decent this year but a lot of their early success was on the back of forcing tons of turnovers. Currently, the Razorbacks’ defense is 10th in the SEC as the turnovers have slowed down and teams are figuring out how to attack them. The Hogs stud safety Jalen Catalon will also miss the first half of the game due to a weak targeting call against LSU.
“All we got, all we need!” Except in those 5 losses, then we didn’t have all we needed!
It’ll be interesting to see if Felipe Franks can find success against the Tigers. He has been much improved this year in a new system but the Hogs offense is pretty average overall. Franks is no longer turning the ball over like we were accustomed to from his time at Florida, but he is not lighting up the stat sheet either. Plus, last year’s leading rusher Rakeem Boyd has opted out of the remaining games and declared for the NFL. He’s had a down year and Trelon Smith is leading the Hogs in rushing this year, but it hurts to lose the depth and experience provided by Boyd.
This game looks to be a close matchup on paper, with a slight edge to Mizzou on both sides of the ball statistically. The Tigers are three-point favorites right now and it helps that they are playing at home. I think this one is a toss-up, but given how Mizzou has won four of five while Arkansas has lost three out of the last four, I’m leaning towards Mizzou in a close one.
Missouri 31
Arkansas 28
The Hammer
Midday Games
#6 Florida at Tennessee - 3:30 PM ET on CBS (Florida -17.5)
This should be a fun one if you aren’t from Tennessee and do not support the Vols. If you are, it may be time to find a safe space and tune out social media starting at noon ET on Saturday. I think the line at Florida -17.5 is very generous towards a Tennessee team that is led by Smokin’ J. Guarantano and a defense that has only held their opponents to under 20 points once this year. In the past two weeks Tennessee has not found the endzone once via the passing game, and they used three different quarterbacks throughout this time to try and get something going. Running back Eric Gray has been the only silver lining in this atrocious offense. Gray may be the next superstar we see opt-out of the season if UT is not careful; they are using him as a workhorse and he will either get tired of the game to game abuse or his body will give out. The one thing the Volunteers cannot afford is to lose a player like Eric Gray.
*Long drag* “It hasn’t been easy throwing all these interceptions.”
This may be an East side matchup but make no mistake, there will be no chance of an upset in this game. Don’t expect for there to be some 2018 Purdue vs. Ohio State magic. Florida’s offense is too good, and their defense has finally started to look like they can compete in the SEC. If you are unfamiliar with the name Kyle Trask, well you probably won’t be reading this blog, but the Gator quarterback has been unstoppable this year. Even in their one loss to #5 Texas A&M he threw for 312 yards and 4 touchdowns. Last week, against Kentucky, he had what they were calling a “slow day” - dude ended up with 256 yards and 3 touchdowns. For any other quarterback in college football, with the exception of maybe Mac Daddy Jones and Trevor Lawrence, that would have been a great showing. This proves how high expectations are for the Gators and what analysts and the Playoff Committee think of Kyle Trask.
I will give the Vols defense a little credit in this one. Trask will only have 4 touchdowns on the day and Florida will only hang 48 on them due to the second string being in by the end of the third quarter. Backup Emory Jones will also be good for at least one score in this one. You may not think this is being generous to Tennessee’s defense but against Florida anything less than 60 points is a Christmas miracle. Just call me the college football Santa, handing out presents to all the teams that don’t deserve it. Happy Holidays Tennessee!
Tennessee fans getting in the Christmas spirit!
#6 Florida 48
Tennessee 17
Vanderbilt at #8 Georgia - 4:00 PM ET on SEC Network (Georgia -35.5)
This game has sadly been postponed to December 19th, which is a shame, because we were all on the edge of our seats. I put together a variation of the Christmas classic “‘Twas the Night Before Christmas” to describe this game, and play or not, I made sure this one was getting published. It’s best read in the voice of Bane from Batman. Indulge me:
‘Twas the eve before Georgia, and all through the night, the Commodores were stirring, not wanting to fight.
The jerseys were hung in the lockers with care, and faint little cries filled the crisp Nashville air.
The players were anxious rolling around in their beds, while nightmares of the Dawg defense pounded their heads.
Derek Mason in some sweats and I in a drought, this Saturday we would both be watching college football from the couch.
When out on the field there arose such a clatter, look there it is Todd Fitch climbing the corporate ladder.
The players sprung from their beds to follow a new leader, but he was charging towards Athens to meet the Vandy beater.
Onward and upwards we shall continue to play, but we all know Sarah Fuller will be the only bright spot at the end of this day.
So into Athens the Commodores did ride, but their fate was sealed, as this is where teams go to die.
Georgia would score with quarterback JT, not once, not twice, but with a total of three.
Let’s not forget Dawg back Zamir White, for without him it would not be a six touchdown kind of night.
Vandy’s offense will most certainly struggle, I would not expect downfield throws but maybe screens called the bubble.
The kickoff team will be a sight to behold, but they will be leaving with neither bronze, silver nor gold.
The Commodores at the end of the day will eventually fall, because this is not a boring game of the sport baseball.
Georgia will continue their top ten aspirations, but a playoff berth is a dream based fully on desperation.
As the night comes to an end we will see 45, because Vandy’s defense had no chance to survive.
Kirby will raise his little red visor in celebration, as the Georgia faithful continue their winning elations.
For the Dawgs the future is bright, and Smart can be heard yelling Merry Football to all, and to all a good night.
-The Waco “Clement Clarke Moore” Kid
#8 Georgia 45
Vanderbilt 3
The Waco Kid
Late Games
South Carolina at Kentucky - 7:30 PM ET on SEC Network (Kentucky -11.5)
I’m not sure there will be a less watched game in the SEC this year, and there have been some duds. 2-7 South Carolina vs. 3-6 Kentucky. Ugh. How did this get the night slot on SEC Network, while #5 A&M and Auburn occupy the noon slot on ESPN? Doesn’t make much sense to us. Approximately 7 people are going to tune into this one.
South Carolina isn’t focused on this game, as they are looking out into the coaching ether for their next head man and trying to hold some semblance of a recruiting class together. Kentucky is stumbling into this game in worse shape than “drunk uncle” on Saturday Night Live, and fans have already turned their attention to Coach Calipari and the hardwood.
“Did you say something about Kentucky Football? Aight…Imma head out.”
The lone bright spots for both teams this year have been their run games. For South Carolina, Kevin Harris has been on a tear all year, leading the SEC in rushing with 928 yards, and is likely to break the 1,000-yard mark in Saturday’s contest. Meanwhile, Kentucky boasts the 4th best rushing offense in the conference behind Ole Miss, A&M and Alabama. The problem for both of these teams comes in the passing game. Collin Hill was ineffective under center for most of the year for the Gamecocks, so they have moved on to highly-recruited former 4-star Luke Doty.
For Kentucky, Terry Wilson and Joey Gatewood have put up terrible numbers through the air in 2020. Kentucky is dead last in the SEC in passing offense. Wilson hasn’t even put up 900 yards passing, in a year where passing offenses are going wild across the SEC. Wilson hasn’t broken 120 yards passing in any game this year, and has put up stat lines like 10/18 for 62-yards, 1 TD/2 INTs (vs. Florida), and 4/11 for 38 yards and 1 TD (vs. Missouri). In the only game he saw extended action, Gatewood was held under 100 yards passing against Georgia (91 yards). It’s been a rough year under center for the Wildcats.
The difference in this one is defense. Both teams are depleted from injuries and opt-outs. But Kentucky has held their own better than South Carolina has on the defensive side of the ball. Aside from when they played the two top offenses in the SEC (Ole Miss and Alabama), who no one can stop, the Wildcats have held opponents under 30 points 5 times. In this day and age, that’s pretty solid. Aside from the Auburn, Missouri, and Vanderbilt (does that one really count?) games, South Carolina’s defense has been getting shelled all year, giving up 38, 52, 48, 59 and 45. Ouch.
Game film of the Gamecocks defense.
Kentucky is not better than South Carolina by 11.5 points. Both of these teams are bad. We’ll take Kentucky by a hair, only because of that defense. If Shi Smith plays for SC (he could return from a concussion), it could be a push.
Kentucky 23
South Carolina 19
Bossman Slim
#1 Alabama at LSU - 8:00 PM ET on CBS (Alabama -29.5)
Dave In Tuscaloosa has a full, hot off hot off the press preview which you can read here. You can read a quick hit below:
So, here’s the main issue LSU has on Saturday...against Alabama, words like nice, solid, and adequate don’t cut it. Neither do defensive rankings that land close to the bottom in the conference and the nation. The 2020 version of the Crimson Tide is firing on all cylinders, especially offensively. Quarterback Mac “Daddy” Jones has led a unit that is carving up defenses, completing 76% of his passes for 23 touchdowns and just 3 interceptions, which are Joe Burrow/Heisman stats. More so than that, Jones has emerged as a true leader on the squad, calmly leading drive after drive that has produced points. Mac’s ability to continue to move the offense forward will be the key to a possible deep run into the College Football Playoffs. Senior back Najee Harris is having a dream season, scoring 17 touchdowns, and the receiving corp led by DeVonta Smith (1,074 yards and 12 touchdowns) and a dominant, experienced offensive line has created a dynamic, potent offense capable of gashing all that stands in their way. Currently, the Tide offense ranks #2 in the conference and 4th nationally, averaging 535 yards and 49 points per game. In addition, the Tide ranks first in the nation in converting 3rd downs (59%).
The defense was hit hard early in the season, yet it’s found its footing, which is bad news for the rest of the conference and the nation. The Tide defense currently ranks 4th in the SEC, giving up an average of 358 yards per game and 19 points...still very un-Alabama like numbers, but an improvement over the start of the season nonetheless.”
Click here for the full preview and score prediction.